Why did Laguna Woods, CA's decade and a half Republican trend reverse under Trump?

[Sailor Haumea]

Laguna Woods, CA, a retirement community in Orange County that is overwhelmingly old white people, has had a very weird trend since 2000 - it trended towards Rs until it flipped to Romney in 2012, then flipped back for Clinton and is now trending D again:

2000: Al Gore (D) (54.58%-42.50%)
2004: John Kerry (D) (53.03%-46.06%)
2008: Barack Obama (D) (51.64%-46.35%)
2012: Mitt Romney (R) (50.74%-48.19%)
2016: Hillary Clinton (D) (51.53%-44.97%)
2020: Joe Biden (D) (54.76%-44.33%)

Why did the retirees here apparently get steadily more Republican, to the point the city ultimately flipped to vote for Romney in 2012, only to reverse course and shift back towards Dems to the point Biden got a higher vote share (but lower margin of victory) than Gore had?

[ottermax]

I think looking at the vote numbers is more helpful. It appears that Republicans simply maintained about 5,500 votes each election, but Democrats had a steady decline... Not sure why Democrats did so well back in 2000!

The more recent swing has more to do with a decline in GOP votes rather than a big uptick in Democratic votes. It's a weird community. I know nothing about it.

[It's Time.]

Obama did well among young people, but not so well among old people. Except for Obama, it hasn't moved too much.

[H. Ross Peron]

I'd imagine much of the electorate in 2000 were Greatest Generation or older Silent Generation voters who were much more Democratic leaning. More recent trends back towards Democrats is probably attributable to Covid and Trump's unpopularity.

[DrScholl]

Bush's position on social security privatization probably hurt him there. The city is below the median income of the state and country so it's probable that many residents need social security.

[Tintrlvr]

Given that the median age of Laguna Woods is 78, you're talking about an electorate that almost completely turns over every decade or so, which makes it not that meaningful to talk about trends since it is literally an entirely different group of people voting.

I assume this is a case of age polarization favoring the Republicans in the 2000-2012 period but subsequent education polarization favoring the Democrats in the Trump era. Education wasn't a major point of polarization during the 2000-2012 period, and age trends have basically stopped (though not reversed) in the Trump era compared to what was happening during the Obama era.

[The Night Owlditor]

Isn't this place basically California's version of The Villages, Florida? Per Wiki, about 90 percent of the city is a private gated retirement community, which surely explains why the median age is 78.

I'm sure Trump's downplaying and terrible handling of the coronavirus probably didn't win him many favors with the seniors there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Given that the median age of Laguna Woods is 78, you're talking about an electorate that almost completely turns over every decade or so, which makes it not that meaningful to talk about trends since it is literally an entirely different group of people voting.

I assume this is a case of age polarization favoring the Republicans in the 2000-2012 period but subsequent education polarization favoring the Democrats in the Trump era. Education wasn't a major point of polarization during the 2000-2012 period, and age trends have basically stopped (though not reversed) in the Trump era compared to what was happening during the Obama era.

I agree with this, and I'd add that older Californians aren't nearly as conservative as their counterparts east of the Mississippi. Biden probably won white boomers/silents here--at least in Metro LA and the Bay.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

I'd imagine much of the electorate in 2000 were Greatest Generation or older Silent Generation voters who were much more Democratic leaning. More recent trends back towards Democrats is probably attributable to Covid and Trump's unpopularity.

Yes--this is similar to Gore's relative strength in much of Florida (though in that case that was reinforced by his strong appeal in the Jewish community and general strength among northeasterners, including those who had drifted to the sunshine state).