1996 revisted.

[WalterMitty]

early 1996 was an excellent time for bill clinton.  he had improved his standng with the american people after the humilating defeats his party took in the 1994 midterm.  he won the battle over government shutdowns against speaker gingrich.  the economy had started to take off.  and perhaps most importantly, the republican field lining up to take him on in the 96 election was totally unimpressive.

on the morning of jan 23, 1996, clinton reports to the hospital complaining of chest pains.  after a battery of tests, it is determined that the president is suffering from heart disease and will need an immediate bypass operation.

his doctors advise him to forego running for reelection.  his heart isnt up to the stress of another grueling campaign, nor is it strong enough for another 4 years as president.

clinton spends the next week with his family and advisors pondering his future.  he badly wants to run for reelection and serve another term as president.  however, his doctors keep emphasizing how serious and potentially life threatening his condition is.

on feb 3, 1996, clinton addresses the nation and announces that he reluctantly wont run for reelection, but he will serve out the remainder of his term.  in that same speech he makes clear that he wants vice president gore to succeed him in the office of the presidency.

with clinton's strong endorsement, gore sails through the democratic primaries unopposed.  on the republican side, senator dole emerges as the winner after a rather grueling primary season.

at the republican convention, dole shocks many conservatives when he nominates moderate new jersey governor christine todd whitman as his running mate.

al gore also shocks his party when he nominates liberal new jersey senator bill bradley as his running mate.  gore was widely expected to nominate a person in the 'new democrat' mold.

how would the election between dole/whitman and gore/bradley shape up?

[nini2287]

Gore is able to capitalize on sympathy over Clinton pretty well and ride that tide to victory.  Gore obviously doesn't have Clinton's charisma so he doesn't do as well as Clinton did.

Gore/Bradley 47% 298 EV
Dole/Whitman 43% 240 EV
Perot/Choate 10% 0 EV

[Lincoln Republican]

Al Gore realizes his life long ambition to be elected President of the United States.

Gore is not as charismatic, to say the least, or as effective a campaigner as Clinton, but defeats Dole by a comfortable, if not large, margin.

The two VP candidates do not have any measurable impact on the final outcome.  Whitman does not help in the northeast, and Bradley does not hurt the Gore ticket.  Wins in the south that Gore gets are won by him.

Gore benefits as the candidate closely associated with the popular outgoing President, Clinton. 

Gore/Bradley                297
Dole/Whitman              241

[WalterMitty]

whitman helps dole with moderate suburban voters.  gore's uncharasmatic ways lead to a serious under-performance in states that clinton would have carried easily.

dole/whitman(r): 50%, 296 EVs
gore/bradley (d) 46%, 242 EVs
perotchoate (i) 4%, 0 EVs

[Lincoln Republican]

Whitman may have helped the Republican ticket with moderate suburban voters, but she would at the same time have hurt the ticket with conservative suburban and rural voters.

Given her liberal social views, she vetoed a bill that outlawed partial birth abortion, showing no respect whatsoever for the life of an infant, she was so pig headed and so uncaring and so callous on this issue, this would have infuriated many social conservatives, and turnout amongst this group would be down, or they would vote for a more conservative third party candidate, thus dooming Dole's Presidential prospects.  More caring and compassionate elected officials than her prevailed, and her ill thought out baby killing veto was overriden by the Republican controlled legislature.

An issue the Democrats would have exploited mercilessly and would have shown over and over again during the campaign, would be the infamous racial profiling incident in 1996, two weeks before the Republican National Convention, in which Whitman rode along in a police patrol car, officers stopped a 16 year old black male, for suspicious activity, and proceeded to frisk him.  After finding nothing, Whitman also frisked the suspect, while a  New Jersey State Police Office photographed her.  The image of the smiling Governor frisking the suspect was published in newspapers statewide.  The photo drew fire from civil rights leaders who saw this as a violation of the young man's civil rights and as an endorsement of racial profiling by the Governor.

This would have as well hurt the Dole campaign, quite seriously, this time amongst moderate urban and suburban voters.         

[Downwinder]

Gore is able to capitalize on sympathy for the outgoing president, who has regained popularity since the dark days of 1994.  He promises to continue the Clinton agenda, but reassures the liberals of the party that he still wants to represent their interests with the selection of Bradley, who he says will be a full partner in his new administration.  Gore is squeaky clean, even if he is a bit of a bore; remember, the scandal that overwhelmed Clinton in 1998 in the real time-line had not yet come to light.  Gore did not spend the campaign running from the Clinton legacy, instead talking about the future of the country and the world.  Clinton campaigns for the ticket lightly, because of doctors orders, only concentrating his visits to key states.

Bradley does capture the attention and allegiance of a sizable portion of the liberal wing of the party.  He doesn't win over the middle, though he does pacify liberals who were starting to edge to Nader, and he holds New Jersey.

Dole is still seen as too old, too out of touch with the times.  Gore looks animated next to him.  Wittman pulls some female democrats to the ticket, by speaking out about issues important to mothers (the group which later came to be known as 'soccer moms').  Neither candidate reaches the 'religious right' of the party, many of whom stay home.

Gore loses some of the states that Clinton carried, but still wins by a comfortable margin.  Perot wasn't really an impact.

Gore/Bradley 359EV/48%PV
Dole/Wittman 179EV/46%PV
Perot/Choate  5%PV



Gore loses some of the states that Clinton carried,