PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Given the trajectory of this race, you wonder who Shapiro may want/appoint as AG in his place. Would think Conor Lamb, especially with prosecutorial background, is the top choice.

Lamb wouldn’t surprise me, idk how well he and Shapiro get along. Shapiro could also just as easily appoint a former aide/some departmental official as a place holder

[wbrocks67]

The Republican establishment is pretty clearly against Mastriano and were clearly trying to stop him. And all reliable sources indicate that Mastriano loses badly to Shapiro and underperform other Republicans significantly.

I’m sorry, but I have to disagree with you. It is very unlikely that Democrats win an open race like this in a national environment that favors republicans. Especially in this era of polarization where split ticket voting is uncommon. If the Republican establishment were truly against Mastriano at this point, then we would see multiple high profile Republican endorsements of Shapiro. But that hasn’t happened yet and likely never will. You would have to be living in a left wing media bubble to believe that Shapiro is somehow the favorite here.

Well this aged poorly. I didn’t expect national Republicans to abandon Mastriano so fast and for there to be such a substantial gap in support between Oz and Mastriano. There’s barely enough time between now and Election Day to close the gap and this race is increasingly looking like a missed opportunity. It goes to show that while outsider rhetoric/public perception can matter in a Republican primary where you don’t need a lot of votes to win and can matter slightly in a general election, the true elephant in the room (no pun intended) is wether the party machine is working behind you.

It speaks to the priorities of the Republican Party when one candidate has been on Fox News almost everyday for the past few weeks and the other one hasn’t.

Do you mean party backing or in polls? Because the poll support is kind of overstated. Oz has only been running a few pts ahead of Mastriano's vote share.

[Independents for George Santos]

I haven't been following this race, can somebody give me a quick rundown on everything Mastriano has screwed up?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't been following this race, can somebody give me a quick rundown on everything Mastriano has screwed up?

Everything.

[Not Me, Us]

I haven't been following this race, can somebody give me a quick rundown on everything Mastriano has screwed up?

It'd be quicker to tell you what he didn't screw up.

1. He has made absolutely no attempt to expand his base of support beyond his existing group of Republican hardliners. He refuses to speak to mainstream media outlets and all his "campaign" has amounted to so far is going on friendly outlets and begging for money.

2. He has no money. His fundraising is abysmal. Oz has that problem (though to a much lesser degree), but he's been able to make it up with support from the national party and outside spending groups. Mastriano, on the other hand, has been completely cut off. The RNC and RGA basically triaged him.

3. He has no campaign. Afaik, he isn't running any TV ads, he's doing almost no rallies, and has dedicated the last part of the campaign cycle to "fasting and prayer", which is probably wise, since only divine intervention can save him now. He really doesn't seem like he wants to win.

There's maybe a 5% chance that the national environment carries him over the finish line, but Josh Shapiro is far and away the most likely next Governor of Pennsylvania.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is it time Shapiro refocuses his campagin towards securing a dem stage legislature ?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is it time Shapiro refocuses his campagin towards securing a dem stage legislature ?

That's my thinking. I said this on the previous page. And not only that but he should do what he can to prop up Fetterman too. I hope they campaign together soon.

[bagelman]

Is it time Shapiro refocuses his campagin towards securing a dem stage legislature ?

That's my thinking. I said this on the previous page. And not only that but he should do what he can to prop up Fetterman too. I hope they campaign together soon.

Agreed. I really hope Shaprio isn't one of those "moderate" Dems who would rather have Tim Ryan than Fetterman, and even if he is I hope he doesn't show it during the campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Doug has finally found a few bucks to get on TV

edit: the buy is $21K lol

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1576957083685199874

[Calthrina950]

Doug has finally found a few bucks to get on TV

edit: the buy is $21K lol

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1576957083685199874

Mastriano is running out of time, so I doubt that a limited ad buy like this is going to have much impact.

[Skill and Chance]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

[ctherainbow]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

Governor appoints, subject to State Senate confirmation, so I imagine it stays open or (less likely) Wolf nominates a non-crazy Republican who will pass muster with the Senate, but I doubt he will want to give any Republican incumbency with the seat up for election next year anyway.

[wbrocks67]

umichvoter reporting on Twitter that Suffolk tomorrow will show Shapiro +11, 48-37.

They had Shapiro +4, 44-40 in June

[Not Me, Us]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

Governor appoints, subject to State Senate confirmation, so I imagine it stays open or (less likely) Wolf nominates a non-crazy Republican who will pass muster with the Senate, but I doubt he will want to give any Republican incumbency with the seat up for election next year anyway.

Wolf won't get a chance to fill it, the State Senate only has like a week left in session before January. The next Governor will fill the vacancy.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

Governor appoints, subject to State Senate confirmation, so I imagine it stays open or (less likely) Wolf nominates a non-crazy Republican who will pass muster with the Senate, but I doubt he will want to give any Republican incumbency with the seat up for election next year anyway.

Wolf won't get a chance to fill it, the State Senate only has like a week left in session before January. The next Governor will fill the vacancy.

All the more reason to vote for Shapiro.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

South Central PA also tended to have a lot of a Copperhead sentiment back in the Civil War and afterwards and its population was more Southern oriented.

Where such would be really depressing, would be in the Northern Part of the state.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

South Central PA also tended to have a lot of a Copperhead sentiment back in the Civil War and afterwards and its population was more Southern oriented.

Where such would be really depressing, would be in the Northern Part of the state.

It's like when I visit north-central Jersey and see confederate flags. 

You're in freaking Monmouth County, my dude. 

[Senator Incitatus]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

South Central PA also tended to have a lot of a Copperhead sentiment back in the Civil War and afterwards and its population was more Southern oriented.

Where such would be really depressing, would be in the Northern Part of the state.

It's like when I visit north-central Jersey and see confederate flags. 

You're in freaking Monmouth County, my dude. 

I’ve never actually seen a Confederate flag in Monmouth, but NJ was probably the most pro-Southern or pro-Copperhead region of the entire North. It didn’t even have a real Republican Party until the 1870s. The ironic part is that the most Republican sections within the state are the most likely to express Southern culture today.

But the general story there is pretty straightforward: in the 1970s, figures like Jimmy Carter, the Allman Brothers, the Dukes of Hazzard, and Lynyrd Skynyrd made culturally “Southern” symbols more broadly representative of rural whites, and they still are today.

[GALeftist]

Doug Mastriano has apparently joined an Election Twitter group chat devoted to him. Therefore, I've Seen Enough: Democrats hold Pennsylvania's governor's mansion, dashing Republican hopes of a trifecta in the Keystone State until at least 2026.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

South Central PA also tended to have a lot of a Copperhead sentiment back in the Civil War and afterwards and its population was more Southern oriented.

Where such would be really depressing, would be in the Northern Part of the state.

It's like when I visit north-central Jersey and see confederate flags. 

You're in freaking Monmouth County, my dude. 

I’ve never actually seen a Confederate flag in Monmouth, but NJ was probably the most pro-Southern or pro-Copperhead region of the entire North. It didn’t even have a real Republican Party until the 1870s. The ironic part is that the most Republican sections within the state are the most likely to express Southern culture today.

But the general story there is pretty straightforward: in the 1970s, figures like Jimmy Carter, the Allman Brothers, the Dukes of Hazzard, and Lynyrd Skynyrd made culturally “Southern” symbols more broadly representative of rural whites, and they still are today.

That is an excellent point, but it's hardly limited to rural whites. There is a putz in my town-suburban upper middle class Bergen County, mind you-who has a Confederate flag hanging from his front porch. He also has a Humvee in his driveway, so that should tell you a lot. These kinds of people exist elsewhere for whatever reason too.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Entirely random but I don’t think it was brought up

Mastriano confederate flag supporting is ridiculous, but even more so that he is literally the state senator for GETTYSBURG

As someone who lives in south-central PA, I can assure you, there have always been a lot more Confederate flags around here than you would expect. More around like 2015 when the anti-Obama hate was at its most extreme, but you still see a fair number of them.

South Central PA also tended to have a lot of a Copperhead sentiment back in the Civil War and afterwards and its population was more Southern oriented.

Where such would be really depressing, would be in the Northern Part of the state.

It's like when I visit north-central Jersey and see confederate flags. 

You're in freaking Monmouth County, my dude. 

I’ve never actually seen a Confederate flag in Monmouth, but NJ was probably the most pro-Southern or pro-Copperhead region of the entire North. It didn’t even have a real Republican Party until the 1870s. The ironic part is that the most Republican sections within the state are the most likely to express Southern culture today.

But the general story there is pretty straightforward: in the 1970s, figures like Jimmy Carter, the Allman Brothers, the Dukes of Hazzard, and Lynyrd Skynyrd made culturally “Southern” symbols more broadly representative of rural whites, and they still are today.

That is an excellent point, but it's hardly limited to rural whites. There is a putz in my town-suburban upper middle class Bergen County, mind you-who has a Confederate flag hanging from his front porch. He also has a Humvee in his driveway, so that should tell you a lot. These kinds of people exist elsewhere for whatever reason too.

I briefly (and I mean BRIEFLY) dated one, but at least he was in suburban Texas. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Shapiro continues to scrape together endorsements from traditionally GOP-friendly groups.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1578050541766283264?s=20&t=6Mhls5AOgs2...

[Roll Roons]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...