PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Ferguson97]

When are Atlas posters going to realize “election denialism” is a mainstream view?

It's not that it's mainstream necessarily (although it is when you count all forms of election denialism), it's just not an important thing that most people actually care enough to vote based solely on, to the detriment of every Wikipedia entry and news article. Liberals have made this their obsession because it makes Republicans look bad, as simple as that. If we had a conservative media, we would have articles of Democrats that would highlight that they implied Russian collusion in 2016, or downplayed BLM riots, as their go-to passive aggressive smears. But we have a liberal media, clearly, and they won't ever give up talking about this or vastly overestimating how much people care about it.

Not sure why you're acting like this is just liberals freaking out over nothing when the Republican nominee for the Governor has explicitly endorsed this conspiracy theory.

[President Johnson]

If Shapiro wins this, I think there's a decent chance he'll end up on a Democratic presidential ticket at some point. He'd be a strong running mate for Kamala Harris or candidate for president himself in 2028 if reelected. He's not even 50 yet.

Would Shapiro appoint his successor for Attorney General then and this placeholder remains in office until the next regular election in 2024? Pennsylvania is the only state I know of that doesn't elect its governor and attorney general simultaneously.

[TodayJunior]

Strong likely D. Candidates matter. PA will buck the national trend (I think) in both senate and Gov races.

[RGM2609]

Would Barletta have won with Trump's endorsement?

[Respect and Compassion]

When are Atlas posters going to realize “election denialism” is a mainstream view?

It's not that it's mainstream necessarily (although it is when you count all forms of election denialism), it's just not an important thing that most people actually care enough to vote based solely on, to the detriment of every Wikipedia entry and news article. Liberals have made this their obsession because it makes Republicans look bad, as simple as that. If we had a conservative media, we would have articles of Democrats that would highlight that they implied Russian collusion in 2016, or downplayed BLM riots, as their go-to passive aggressive smears. But we have a liberal media, clearly, and they won't ever give up talking about this or vastly overestimating how much people care about it.

Not sure why you're acting like this is just liberals freaking out over nothing when the Republican nominee for the Governor has explicitly endorsed this conspiracy theory.

The issue is that 'election denialism' is not arguably a particularly damaging thing among swing/nonpartisan voters. It won't damage as much as a sex-scandal, white nationalism, advocating for cuts to social security, et cetera - if at all. For swing/nonpartisan voters who are leaning R right now, such talk will be met with "ok, so? I think the Republicans will do more to fix the economy".

Unfortunately

[Oppo]

If Shapiro wins this, I think there's a decent chance he'll end up on a Democratic presidential ticket at some point. He'd be a strong running mate for Kamala Harris or candidate for president himself in 2028 if reelected. He's not even 50 yet.

Would Shapiro appoint his successor for Attorney General then and this placeholder remains in office until the next regular election in 2024? Pennsylvania is the only state I know of that doesn't elect its governor and attorney general simultaneously.

Saw this yesterday...
https://twitter.com/MrErnestOwens/status/1526648519792156674?s=20&t=yxpCfUq0...

[wbrocks67]

When are Atlas posters going to realize “election denialism” is a mainstream view?

It's not that it's mainstream necessarily (although it is when you count all forms of election denialism), it's just not an important thing that most people actually care enough to vote based solely on, to the detriment of every Wikipedia entry and news article. Liberals have made this their obsession because it makes Republicans look bad, as simple as that. If we had a conservative media, we would have articles of Democrats that would highlight that they implied Russian collusion in 2016, or downplayed BLM riots, as their go-to passive aggressive smears. But we have a liberal media, clearly, and they won't ever give up talking about this or vastly overestimating how much people care about it.

Not sure why you're acting like this is just liberals freaking out over nothing when the Republican nominee for the Governor has explicitly endorsed this conspiracy theory.

The issue is that 'election denialism' is not arguably a particularly damaging thing among swing/nonpartisan voters. It won't damage as much as a sex-scandal, white nationalism, advocating for cuts to social security, et cetera - if at all. For swing/nonpartisan voters who are leaning R right now, such talk will be met with "ok, so? I think the Republicans will do more to fix the economy".

Unfortunately

That's... not true. And not just that, but Mastriano has explicitly said that he would've essentially thrown out the votes in 2020. Telling people in your own state that their votes didn't matter and you would overrule them goes even way beyond his whole 2020 denialism thing.

This is kind of like Wagner all over again but on steroids. There's a reason why Tom Wolf won by 18 in 2018. It was a blue wave and Wolf has/had a strong personal brand, but also Wagner was a *terrible* candidate to boot, especially for Pennsylvania.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I would be totally cool with Lamb running for AG in '24. But I wonder if Larry Krasner might run against him.

[Politician]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

[wbrocks67]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

People outside of PA commenting on this race just shows how little attention they pay. The comment in another thread trying to compare this race to VA-Gov was silly as well. It's abundantly clear that there is no parallel for this race because Mastriano IS crazier than even your standard Trumpist Republicans. But simultaneously, Shapiro IS running a better campaign and has demonstrated stronger electoral appeal than most standard Democrats. Pennsylvania does not adhere to trends. We do what we do.

[zoz]

Here's my prediction for tonight (I'm a little more confident about this one than the Senate):

Mastriano: 40%
Barletta: 25%
McSwain: 18%
White: 11%
Other: 4%

Mastriano is going to dominate across western and especially central PA, keeping Lou confined to the cluster of counties around Luzerne/old PA-11 and possibly down towards Lehigh Valley/Philly suburbs. McSwain and White could win their respective home counties of Chester and Delaware but that's about it for them.

I called this one pretty well if I do say so myself (but then again this was expected)

[Rookie Yinzer]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

People outside of PA commenting on this race just shows how little attention they pay. The comment in another thread trying to compare this race to VA-Gov was silly as well. It's abundantly clear that there is no parallel for this race because Mastriano IS crazier than even your standard Trumpist Republicans. But simultaneously, Shapiro IS running a better campaign and has demonstrated stronger electoral appeal than most standard Democrats. Pennsylvania does not adhere to trends. We do what we do.

Exactly. This forum is a cesspool of sh*t takes. Lol.

[wbrocks67]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

People outside of PA commenting on this race just shows how little attention they pay. The comment in another thread trying to compare this race to VA-Gov was silly as well. It's abundantly clear that there is no parallel for this race because Mastriano IS crazier than even your standard Trumpist Republicans. But simultaneously, Shapiro IS running a better campaign and has demonstrated stronger electoral appeal than most standard Democrats. Pennsylvania does not adhere to trends. We do what we do.

This is basically what I try and say when people think just because its a red year that Oz would win by 3-5% or something.

And then I bring up the fact that last years Supreme Court race was within 1% even when Bidens approvals were in the tank.

Like you said, PA is just a different beast.

[Farmlands]

I mean, Pennsylvania obviously adheres to trends, but the GOP voters made a bad call here, I don't care what right-wingers say. There is such a thing as candidate quality, and we've seen people like Sharon Angle and Tom Corbett fail in decent years for their party because of it. Tilt D for now.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

People outside of PA commenting on this race just shows how little attention they pay. The comment in another thread trying to compare this race to VA-Gov was silly as well. It's abundantly clear that there is no parallel for this race because Mastriano IS crazier than even your standard Trumpist Republicans. But simultaneously, Shapiro IS running a better campaign and has demonstrated stronger electoral appeal than most standard Democrats. Pennsylvania does not adhere to trends. We do what we do.

Exactly. This forum is a cesspool of sh*t takes. Lol.

I'm surprised nobody has said ''will the fact that Josh Shapiro shares a last name with Ben Shapiro reduce left-wing turnout?" yet

[GALeftist]

When are Atlas posters going to realize “election denialism” is a mainstream view?

It's not that it's mainstream necessarily (although it is when you count all forms of election denialism), it's just not an important thing that most people actually care enough to vote based solely on, to the detriment of every Wikipedia entry and news article. Liberals have made this their obsession because it makes Republicans look bad, as simple as that. If we had a conservative media, we would have articles of Democrats that would highlight that they implied Russian collusion in 2016, or downplayed BLM riots, as their go-to passive aggressive smears. But we have a liberal media, clearly, and they won't ever give up talking about this or vastly overestimating how much people care about it.

Both of you need to pull your heads back out into the real world. People are concerned about election denialism because people broadly like living in what can reasonably be called a democracy. It may be "mainstream" in your conservative bubble, but if Mastriano only wins voters who want the state legislature to cast Pennsylvania's electoral votes irrespective of Pennsylvania's PV winner he is going to lose, simple as that. Not saying that will happen, obviously (I think Mastriano is probably narrowly favored as of now) but there you go. To ElectionsGuy's point, I really think you need to try just tuning out the "liberal media," because you are constantly tilting at windmills in this regard. No one serious believes that Mastriano has no chance; the fact that people are (rightly) pointing out that this will hurt Mastriano relative to a generic Republican does not change this basic fact. Not every New York Times op-ed is an extension of Democratic campaigning. Sometimes people are just concerned that our democracy is on its way out and want to write about it.

[wbrocks67]

I would be totally cool with Lamb running for AG in '24. But I wonder if Larry Krasner might run against him.

IDK, I don't think Krasner would do well statewide. He has a super liberal base but I don't know how we would do a in general statewide. Lamb seems much more suited for that.

[President Johnson]

A general thought on this: It's actually interesting that Republicans still tend to nominate extreme candidates in usual battleground states. The Democrats are more cautious in that regard for most of the time. Tom Wolf is admittedly a pretty liberal governor, but he's not an AOC-style progressive and still a millionaire businessman.

Sometimes I feel the media is playing a double standard here and extreme Republican candidates are much more normalized. It's certainly also a sign of how extreme the party has become.

[Roll Roons]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

[Senator Incitatus]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

Lynch also ran a fairly absurd campaign. Mastriano could do the same, but Democrats automatically assuming he will are wishcasting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

Lynch also ran a fairly absurd campaign. Mastriano could do the same, but Democrats automatically assuming he will are wishcasting.

Uh, that seems like a fair assumption after his acceptance speech.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

Lynch also ran a fairly absurd campaign. Mastriano could do the same, but Democrats automatically assuming he will are wishcasting.

Uh, that seems like a fair assumption after his acceptance speech.

This. I feel like I'm reliving CNN election night from last week where someone suggested that Mastriano may "moderate" his campaign and then they played his election night speech and it was everything you'd expect from the Mastriano we'd known and you just wonder how people can be this dense.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

Lynch also ran a fairly absurd campaign. Mastriano could do the same, but Democrats automatically assuming he will are wishcasting.

Uh, that seems like a fair assumption after his acceptance speech.

This. I feel like I'm reliving CNN election night from last week where someone suggested that Mastriano may "moderate" his campaign and then they played his election night speech and it was everything you'd expect from the Mastriano we'd known and you just wonder how people can be this dense.

I'm reminded of the people who kept predicting that Trump would "moderate" and become less unhinged and spend less time on Twitter after:

-Once the primaries seriously started.
-Once the primary elections started voting.
-Once he secured the nomination.
-Once he officially became the nominee after the convention.
-Once the general election debates started.
-Once he won the election.
-Once he took office.
-Once his Cabinet was approved and the transition was complete.
-Once the midterms were close.
-Once the Democrats took the House.
-Once his re-election campaign heated up.
-The general election had finished
Etc...

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.