PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any reason why there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about this race?

It seems as if the state GOP and the media have been focused on the Senate race. Especially odd since I think Barletta and Mastriano are both horrible candidates for a very winnable race like PA-GOV in a Republican year.

Is Shapiro just that strong of a candidate that people just expect him to win in spite of the political winds?

Combination of a completely uncompetitive D primary and a completely stupid GOP clown car primary, minus the interesting personalities like we have in the Senate primary. Nobody gives a sh*t about Mastriano or Barletta or White. They're all boring. At least there's been some fun jabs between Oz and McCormick.

This is why I think Shapiro could win even if the Republicans hold the Senate seat. He's a strong candidate who has the full backing of his party, while his Republican opponents are unimpressive.

Yea, Shapiro has much better chances of winning then what ever democrat wins the nomination for senate. I wouldn’t put it in the top 3 competitive gov races

Shapiro might be strong but PA is a classic swing state in a Republican year. At this point I would be (pleasantly) surprised if they don't elect a Republican Senator and a Republican Governor

Lol it's not a Republican yr if Biden Approvals are Even do you know in ,2010/2014 what the vote totals were it was 33/33 M not 65/650 M that we got in 2016/ or 80/75M and Biden Approvals were even 50/45 in 2020 they are at 49% now, it is a 270 map when Biden is at 49%

[wbrocks67]

Any reason why there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about this race?

It seems as if the state GOP and the media have been focused on the Senate race. Especially odd since I think Barletta and Mastriano are both horrible candidates for a very winnable race like PA-GOV in a Republican year.

Is Shapiro just that strong of a candidate that people just expect him to win in spite of the political winds?

Combination of a completely uncompetitive D primary and a completely stupid GOP clown car primary, minus the interesting personalities like we have in the Senate primary. Nobody gives a sh*t about Mastriano or Barletta or White. They're all boring. At least there's been some fun jabs between Oz and McCormick.

Pretty much this. There's been basically zero polling on the race though - even in a GE sense - which is frustrating. But Shapiro is a very strong candidate and the GOP candidates on the GOV race side are getting zero traction.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro has a crap ton of money (as opposed to most on the GOP side having nothing). He's already well known of course but he should use this time to run a ton of positive ads for himself.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1507352350398291973

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1511365640241745925

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/Laurenjmayk/status/1511365640241745925

Jesus that's a lot of money

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if this race isn't even happening on the GOP side.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a poll but it's a 303 map not a 413 map the pollster above wbrooks thinks it's a D nut map doesn't 2020 teach us anything about overpredicting in order for a red state to turn blue we need a Mason Dixon poll to talk or Traggy poll the other polls are pure partisan

That's why you had in two weeks CRIST ahead, DeSantis up by 16 and then 11, Abbott is only up by 2 but Beto isn't ahead

Charles Booker was 20 pts behind in the Mason Dixon poll

[Suburbia]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

Lol pbower2A just said 44% Biden is at is the new 50, did you know how many votes we gotten on 2010/14 R election it was 82M it was same day voting we are gonna suppass that 125M vote cases close Shapiro wins

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

huh?

[Suburbia]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

huh?

He needs to have the energy that Wolf had in 2014 that increased turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh. Shapiro needs to be more jugular and aggressive against the GOP.

[Spark]

Been seeing a lot of McSwain signs near I-95. Not sure if that means anything, however.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

Corbett lost by 9 pts that's why Wolf won it was against Corbett whom was deeply unpopular not because Wild has so much energy and Wolf won again by 17 I'm 2018 only because he ran with Bob Casey Jr apples and oranges to 22

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro is gonna lose badly. Blacks will not turn out for him.

huh?

He needs to have the energy that Wolf had in 2014 that increased turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh. Shapiro needs to be more jugular and aggressive against the GOP.

Clearly you don't follow him then...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

[wbrocks67]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

This. I have cautious optimism about this race but it's hard not to. The environment is not good for Dems, but this is the best possible outcome for them, relatively speaking. Shapiro is strong, has lots of $$$, no opponents, and the GOP field is a total clown car with no $.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

Yup, the gov race is at least a tossup, if not tilt D. The only question is whether there will be significant ticket splitting, at least in the range of >50k votes. I think the senate is slightly Tilt R due to national environment.

[Duke of York]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

Yup, the gov race is at least a tossup, if not tilt D. The only question is whether there will be significant ticket splitting, at least in the range of >50k votes. I think the senate is slightly Tilt R due to national environment.

It is absolutely essential Democrats hold the governor's chair. Fetterman is a great candidate and should he get the nod has an excellent chance of winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Wolf won twice so big in 2014/ against Corbett and 2018/ he ran with Casey and won by 17 this is a dead even race because Rs are much stronger but D's have the advantage that's why they recruited Shapiro not Lamb or Keynetta that could of lost

[ElectionsGuy]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

[wbrocks67]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

Not usually in swing states though. Usually it's a blue or red state where they have almost no chance. Again, there's a reason why the GOP has not committed any $ yet to the GOV race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

You do realize we had 82 M total votes in 2010/14 and since then it was 125 M vote Turnout you do realize that due to VBM it was same day voting in 2010/13 that's why your prediction of ab R nut map is wrong and you have Kelly losing and he is winning

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

Not usually in swing states though. Usually it's a blue or red state where they have almost no chance. Again, there's a reason why the GOP has not committed any $ yet to the GOV race

Eh even then, fundraising on a statewide level for a larger state is pretty meaningless.

I agree the GOP candidates have problems but if Dems win it won't be because of fundraising.

[wbrocks67]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

The "popular outgoing Governor" is not very popular. That would be one problem. The other would be that there are countless examples of Democrats drowning Republicans in fundraising and losing anyway, in the last few election cycles.

Not usually in swing states though. Usually it's a blue or red state where they have almost no chance. Again, there's a reason why the GOP has not committed any $ yet to the GOV race

Eh even then, fundraising on a statewide level for a larger state is pretty meaningless.

I agree the GOP candidates have problems but if Dems win it won't be because of fundraising.

It'll be a factor though. It'll mostly be on the strength (or not) of the candidates, but Shapiro has a ton of $$ to really hit the message home while the GOP candidates have all been terrible fundraisers and given their own personal weaknesses, the fact that they won't have any $$ either won't help.

[wbrocks67]

Down goes McSwain.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1513890088102645774