Titanium Blue state that would probably become a swing state 50 years later...

[iceman]

which solid blue state at present do you think would become a swing state in 50 years time?

when I say blue, it is a DEM state, not an atlas blue state.

[EastwoodS]

This may sound crazy but I think by 2070 most all states will have circulated through the “swing  state” cycle whether or not they are blue or red. With the exception of like DC or KY lol.
But in 2070 specifically maybe ILL, HI, NY? Maybe CA idk, it’ll probably be a traditional lean/ tilt D state.

[If my soul was made of stone]

HI or RI, both on the backs of slow demographic realignment

[iceman]

I would probably think Illinois or Vermont.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Delaware

[EastwoodS]

Delaware

I think it’ll be a swing state long before that, in fact it’ll be a red state by then with the way it is behaving, right now. I’d say DE becomes really swingy in the 2030s.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Literally impossible to predict, Imagine you told people in 1970 that Virginia and Georgia would be democrat and California would be the most Democratic state while the rest of the south was solidly republican.

[EastwoodS]

Literally impossible to predict, Imagine you told people in 1970 that Virginia and Georgia would be democrat and California would be the most Democratic state while the rest of the south was solidly republican.

Well... GA was solidly Democrat in 1970, so.

[Sol]

The thing about Delaware's voting patterns is that it's a fairly white-collar state. If it flips to the Republicans it'll be because the Republicans become more #Tory than they are presently, which isn't impossible but is also the opposite of their current trajectory.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Democratic Blue: Rhode Island

Atlas Blue: Utah

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Fifty years is such a long time that basically any guess is worth any other.

Also, I am not sure the concept of swing state in the way we picture it now will still exist in 2070... certainly it didn't exist like that in 1970.

[Red Wall]

Rhode Island or Delaware.

[Redban]

I'm gonna be bold and say NEW YORK

Upstate and Long Island are areas that could viably trend rightwards, especially if the radical politics of NYC continues to alienate the moderate Dems in the state. Then the GOP would need to narrow the deficit in NYC from 80% to about 65%.

[Real Texan Politics]

By 50 years from now, I'd say Delaware, Rhode Island, New York, and Illinois.

Connecticut, New Jersey, Hawaii, and Oregon might be stretches, but it wouldn't surprise me. Maybe Vermont could swing to the right someday as well?

[Real Texan Politics]

Democratic Blue: Rhode Island

Atlas Blue: Utah

Absolutely agree Utah will be competitive soon, although I'd say we need a thread for titanium red states that would probably become swing states in 50 years time. If no one else makes one then I'll do the honors.

[astrohuncho]

Definitely a state like Vermont or Rhode Island, 2016 showed potential first signs but it'll take a long while for these states to become competitive, for sure the rurals will go red first...

[Alben Barkley]

This may sound crazy but I think by 2070 most all states will have circulated through the “swing  state” cycle whether or not they are blue or red. With the exception of like DC or KY lol.
But in 2070 specifically maybe ILL, HI, NY? Maybe CA idk, it’ll probably be a traditional lean/ tilt D state.

KY is far more likely to become a swing state again at some point than DC ever is to come close to voting Republican, short of a massive realignment.

A state like WY or something would be a more appropriate parallel to DC, as it doesn’t have much history at all of voting for Democrats on almost any level.

But really, there is no state, blue or red, comparable to DC in partisanship.

[Alben Barkley]

Definitely a state like Vermont or Rhode Island, 2016 showed potential first signs but it'll take a long while for these states to become competitive, for sure the rurals will go red first...

Literally only because of Bernie write-ins. Swung back hard to the most Democratic state in the country this year. There was no “sign” of Vermont moving right in 2016.

Not saying it’s impossible a state as rural and white as Vermont (though also pretty educated and unusual in many ways) will eventually vote R again. But 2016 is not a sign of it.

[Orser67]

CA, NY, and the greater DC area seem like the anchors of the Democratic Party for the foreseeable future. In other words, I think they sort of form the core of the current Democratic coalition, symbolically, demographically, and financially, and I think it's unlikely they'll switch to voting Republican even as partisan coalitions inevitably change around them.

So I'll go with IL, which seems like a decent bet if only because it's the lone Midwestern titanium D state, and it seems possible that a future realignment could see the GOP become centered more on the Midwest than the South. It also helps that it's already closer than other titanium D states.

[Bush did 311]

The thing about Delaware's voting patterns is that it's a fairly white-collar state. If it flips to the Republicans it'll be because the Republicans become more #Tory than they are presently, which isn't impossible but is also the opposite of their current trajectory.

I think this could be the future. The thing is a leftward economic shift among the dem base may cause some of these mid atlantic states to fall away (DE, NJ, CT) Though I think there are economically left social moderates in appalachia and the plains that could compensate for the losses.

I also agree with the post earlier that all states cycle through eventually. We've seen it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This may sound crazy but I think by 2070 most all states will have circulated through the “swing  state” cycle whether or not they are blue or red. With the exception of like DC or KY lol.
But in 2070 specifically maybe ILL, HI, NY? Maybe CA idk, it’ll probably be a traditional lean/ tilt D state.

KY is far more likely to become a swing state again at some point than DC ever is to come close to voting Republican, short of a massive realignment.

A state like WY or something would be a more appropriate parallel to DC, as it doesn’t have much history at all of voting for Democrats on almost any level.

But really, there is no state, blue or red, comparable to DC in partisanship.

While you are mostly completely correct, it is incorrect to say Wyoming "doesn’t have much history at all of voting for Democrats on almost any level". It was quite winnable for Dems, and even Dem-leaning on occasion for a long time until the 1950s. It voted for FDR in all but one of his elections. 1992 was the first time that in two consecutive Dem victories, Wyoming did not vote for the Democrat. And this is to say nothing about downballot.
In 1948, Wyoming was pretty much EVEN relative to the nation as a whole, looking at one-cycle PVI.

[Samof94]

What if there is no electoral college at all and it is all popular vote?
But to answer the original question, Illinois has a good shot of becoming a swing state much sooner than that.

[MarkD]

What if there is no electoral college at all and it is all popular vote?
But to answer the original question, Illinois has a good shot of becoming a swing state much sooner than that.

I am inclined to agree that my current home, Illinois, seems likely to return to swing-state status, given the growth trends in the collar counties, and it won't take 50 years to get to that point.

[Flyersfan232]

HI or RI, both on the backs of slow demographic realignment

could hawaii ever get a retirement community growing?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

New Mexico (not really titanium blue, but it did vote comfortably for Democrats in the last 4 elections).

While I don't agree with the Atlas narrative that RGV and Dade prove that Hispanics are now zooming to the Republican column, the GOP will have to make further inroads in minority communities in the 21st century to stay relevant, and so I think they will. The ancestral Dem vote among Hispanos is really what makes NM a Dem state, because it is otherwise a state with lots of Republican characteristics--Albuquerque isn't that big, there's not a strong "knowledge industry" presence, and there aren't many black people. The Hispanic community there is largely Hispano settlers from the Spanish/Mexican empire days, rather than new immigrants, which suggests that they're not quite as averse to conservatism as, say, Hispanic voters in CA or NY. So over time, with stronger Hispanic inroads, I believe NM can become a Republican state