Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest? (user search)
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  Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest?  (Read 1008 times)
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« on: January 14, 2021, 11:21:25 AM »

yes, but less.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,282
United States


« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2021, 01:42:18 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue
Polls were good in upper midwestern States like Wisconsin or Michigan or Minnesota but worse in lower midwestern states like Indiana or Missouri or Ohio.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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Posts: 2,282
United States


« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2021, 08:20:05 PM »

Polling error is inconsistent, so it is best not to brood on it. Look at what happened in TX.
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