Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:57:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest?  (Read 1000 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,454
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:04:50 AM »

Polls in 2020 once again underestimated GOP support in most Midwestern states, particularly in PA, WI and MI. How likely are we going to see this again in 2024. Was this the effect of shy Trump support that won't be factor with Trump very likely not on the ballot? I will definitely take polls from this region with a big grain of salt, even if polls prove to be accurate in the 2022 midterms.
Logged
Kuumo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,080


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2021, 10:14:26 AM »

They'll probably be off again, especially in Wisconsin. People calling this "just a Trump phenomenon" are kidding themselves; it's about demographics. The larger the percentage of non-college white voters, the more the polls will underestimate Republicans. It's no coincidence that Colorado, one of the few states where Biden was underestimated, is one of the most educated states in the country.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,562


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2021, 10:19:09 AM »

I tend not to be a person who likes to speculate on polling errors, but in general polls seems to underestimate Demographic change as well as the educational divide. Considering the Republicans are now the party that tends to do better with non-college educated voters, something which the midwest has a loot of, if 2024 comes around and the divides seems to have grown wider, then yes.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2021, 10:23:37 AM »

Yes, but not to the degree of 2016 and 2020.  Trump was a unique candidate who was able to draw out record numbers of white non-college voters and win them by epic margins.

I don't see Average Joe or Jane in the Driftless turning out for Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley.  Maybe Don Jr., but that's about it.
Logged
tagimaucia
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2021, 10:34:34 AM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2021, 11:00:06 AM »

It depends on a normalized Economy and how the stimulus checks are redistributed in the Spring coming up on a debt ceiling will determine how 2022/2024 will go.

Some people haven't gotten their 600 and IRS screwed the voters and Manchin said he may not sign onto more funds.  Also, if Trump is Prosecuted or free from Prison and how he will have his family influence the elections will determine the outcome of these races. D's shouldn't be overconfident about their chances..

The Economy by 2022 needs to be fully open by 2022 Midterms
Logged
Oregon Eagle Politics
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,198
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2021, 11:21:25 AM »

yes, but less.
Logged
Motorcity
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,473


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2021, 11:51:59 AM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2021, 11:52:54 AM »

Polls were generally good in all 3 in WI/PA/MI ("Generally" key word) in 2018, so I consider 2016/2020 a bit of an abberation.

Though I guess they weren't incredibly off in PA in 2020. Off, sure, but the averages had PA at like Biden +3/4, so wasn't as off as MI/WI
Logged
tagimaucia
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2021, 01:19:34 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue

The polling averages showed Cordray winning OH-Gov by like 4-5 points, and he lost by about the same amount.  And the OH-Sen polls got the result right but had Sherrod Brown winning by a lot more than he actually did.  The polls in IN-Sen were off by like 7 points and showed Donnelly narrowly ahead on average.

Here's a helpful chart:



I agree that the polls weren't so bad in WI/PA/MI in 2018.
Logged
Motorcity
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,473


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2021, 01:30:27 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue

The polling averages showed Cordray winning OH-Gov by like 4-5 points, and he lost by about the same amount.  And the OH-Sen polls got the result right but had Sherrod Brown winning by a lot more than he actually did.  The polls in IN-Sen were off by like 7 points and showed Donnelly narrowly ahead on average.

Here's a helpful chart:



I agree that the polls weren't so bad in WI/PA/MI in 2018.
Wow, my bad. I didn't realize polls showed Democrats ahead in IW and OH

I wonder why polls were so bad in the lower midwest in 2016, 2018, 2020
Logged
Oregon Eagle Politics
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,198
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2021, 01:42:18 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue
Polls were good in upper midwestern States like Wisconsin or Michigan or Minnesota but worse in lower midwestern states like Indiana or Missouri or Ohio.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2021, 03:34:51 PM »

Maybe, but not nearly to 2020's extent, unless Trump is on the ballot again. It's clear that he is the odd variable.

Polls would have been accurate in 2018, but Trump campaigned for R candidates with a message of "I'm on the ballot, a vote for this R is a vote for me," which got some of the low-propensity Trumpists out to vote and made the polls less wrong than 16 and 20 but still wrong. (Obama should have campaigned like this in 2010 and 2014).
Logged
Catalyst138
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2021, 03:39:02 PM »

They'll probably be off again, especially in Wisconsin. People calling this "just a Trump phenomenon" are kidding themselves; it's about demographics. The larger the percentage of non-college white voters, the more the polls will underestimate Republicans. It's no coincidence that Colorado, one of the few states where Biden was underestimated, is one of the most educated states in the country.

It’s not JUST a Trump phenomenon, but the errors are certainly largest when Trump is around. It’s the difference between a minor polling error and a major one.
Logged
Kuumo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,080


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2021, 03:50:30 PM »

They'll probably be off again, especially in Wisconsin. People calling this "just a Trump phenomenon" are kidding themselves; it's about demographics. The larger the percentage of non-college white voters, the more the polls will underestimate Republicans. It's no coincidence that Colorado, one of the few states where Biden was underestimated, is one of the most educated states in the country.

It’s not JUST a Trump phenomenon, but the errors are certainly largest when Trump is around. It’s the difference between a minor polling error and a major one.

I wasn't saying that the error will always be of the same magnitude; I was just saying that the polling will likely still underestimate Republican support. There are certainly examples of 2018 polls of the Midwest that underestimated Republicans by smaller margins than the 2016 and 2020 polls.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2021, 08:09:18 PM »

Not sure.
Logged
Oregon Eagle Politics
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,198
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2021, 08:20:05 PM »

Polling error is inconsistent, so it is best not to brood on it. Look at what happened in TX.
Logged
Galeel
Oashigo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 991
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2021, 11:17:36 AM »

I don't know enough to say for sure (and I don't think anyone does, or else we would just adjust for it), but I'm sure not gonna be paying a lot of attention to polling going forward.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2021, 11:31:26 AM »

Yes, but not to the degree of 2016 and 2020.  Trump was a unique candidate who was able to draw out record numbers of white non-college voters and win them by epic margins.

I don't see Average Joe or Jane in the Driftless turning out for Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley.  Maybe Don Jr., but that's about it.


True. It'll probably be even worse. Trump was just the beginning. We're not putting that toothpaste back in the tube. It's hilarious to me that now post-election the narrative is 'Trump was actually a good candidate who turned out his voters' which is now conveniently used as a way to suggest no other Republican can do what he did, when of course pre-election it was 'Trump is/was a uniquely bad candidate who can't win' and also that his base was unmotivated and less enthusiastic compared to 2016.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.