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January 17, 2021, 10:42:22 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest?
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Author Topic: Will polls again underestimate GOP support in the Midwest?  (Read 398 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« on: January 14, 2021, 10:04:50 AM »

Polls in 2020 once again underestimated GOP support in most Midwestern states, particularly in PA, WI and MI. How likely are we going to see this again in 2024. Was this the effect of shy Trump support that won't be factor with Trump very likely not on the ballot? I will definitely take polls from this region with a big grain of salt, even if polls prove to be accurate in the 2022 midterms.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2021, 10:14:26 AM »

They'll probably be off again, especially in Wisconsin. People calling this "just a Trump phenomenon" are kidding themselves; it's about demographics. The larger the percentage of non-college white voters, the more the polls will underestimate Republicans. It's no coincidence that Colorado, one of the few states where Biden was underestimated, is one of the most educated states in the country.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2021, 10:19:09 AM »

I tend not to be a person who likes to speculate on polling errors, but in general polls seems to underestimate Demographic change as well as the educational divide. Considering the Republicans are now the party that tends to do better with non-college educated voters, something which the midwest has a loot of, if 2024 comes around and the divides seems to have grown wider, then yes.
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Georgia is the MVP of 2020.
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2021, 10:23:37 AM »

Yes, but not to the degree of 2016 and 2020.  Trump was a unique candidate who was able to draw out record numbers of white non-college voters and win them by epic margins.

I don't see Average Joe or Jane in the Driftless turning out for Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley.  Maybe Don Jr., but that's about it.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2021, 10:34:34 AM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2021, 11:00:06 AM »

It depends on a normalized Economy and how the stimulus checks are redistributed in the Spring coming up on a debt ceiling will determine how 2022/2024 will go.

Some people haven't gotten their 600 and IRS screwed the voters and Manchin said he may not sign onto more funds.  Also, if Trump is Prosecuted or free from Prison and how he will have his family influence the elections will determine the outcome of these races. D's shouldn't be overconfident about their chances..

The Economy by 2022 needs to be fully open by 2022 Midterms
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2021, 11:21:25 AM »

yes, but less.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2021, 11:51:59 AM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2021, 11:52:54 AM »

Polls were generally good in all 3 in WI/PA/MI ("Generally" key word) in 2018, so I consider 2016/2020 a bit of an abberation.

Though I guess they weren't incredibly off in PA in 2020. Off, sure, but the averages had PA at like Biden +3/4, so wasn't as off as MI/WI
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2021, 01:19:34 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue

The polling averages showed Cordray winning OH-Gov by like 4-5 points, and he lost by about the same amount.  And the OH-Sen polls got the result right but had Sherrod Brown winning by a lot more than he actually did.  The polls in IN-Sen were off by like 7 points and showed Donnelly narrowly ahead on average.

Here's a helpful chart:



I agree that the polls weren't so bad in WI/PA/MI in 2018.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2021, 01:30:27 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue

The polling averages showed Cordray winning OH-Gov by like 4-5 points, and he lost by about the same amount.  And the OH-Sen polls got the result right but had Sherrod Brown winning by a lot more than he actually did.  The polls in IN-Sen were off by like 7 points and showed Donnelly narrowly ahead on average.

Here's a helpful chart:



I agree that the polls weren't so bad in WI/PA/MI in 2018.
Wow, my bad. I didn't realize polls showed Democrats ahead in IW and OH

I wonder why polls were so bad in the lower midwest in 2016, 2018, 2020
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2021, 01:42:18 PM »

They still did in 2018 to a meaningful extent (though the effect varied by state). I mean just look at how bad the polls were in Ohio, Indiana, etc. that year.  So yes.  

Though maybe there are some pollsters who have actually figured something out about how to poll these states more accurately that we can pay more attention to than others (Selzer? Atlas Intel?).  I still don't personally believe that Trafalgar even conducts actual polls, so I'm not gonna include them...
No? The polls had Democrats winning gov races in MI, PA, and WI. And senate races in OH and WI.

They rated the gov races in IW and OH as tossups and they were really close. Whats the issue
Polls were good in upper midwestern States like Wisconsin or Michigan or Minnesota but worse in lower midwestern states like Indiana or Missouri or Ohio.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2021, 03:34:51 PM »

Maybe, but not nearly to 2020's extent, unless Trump is on the ballot again. It's clear that he is the odd variable.

Polls would have been accurate in 2018, but Trump campaigned for R candidates with a message of "I'm on the ballot, a vote for this R is a vote for me," which got some of the low-propensity Trumpists out to vote and made the polls less wrong than 16 and 20 but still wrong. (Obama should have campaigned like this in 2010 and 2014).
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2021, 03:39:02 PM »

They'll probably be off again, especially in Wisconsin. People calling this "just a Trump phenomenon" are kidding themselves; it's about demographics. The larger the percentage of non-college white voters, the more the polls will underestimate Republicans. It's no coincidence that Colorado, one of the few states where Biden was underestimated, is one of the most educated states in the country.

Itís not JUST a Trump phenomenon, but the errors are certainly largest when Trump is around. Itís the difference between a minor polling error and a major one.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2021, 03:50:30 PM »

They'll probably be off again, especially in Wisconsin. People calling this "just a Trump phenomenon" are kidding themselves; it's about demographics. The larger the percentage of non-college white voters, the more the polls will underestimate Republicans. It's no coincidence that Colorado, one of the few states where Biden was underestimated, is one of the most educated states in the country.

Itís not JUST a Trump phenomenon, but the errors are certainly largest when Trump is around. Itís the difference between a minor polling error and a major one.

I wasn't saying that the error will always be of the same magnitude; I was just saying that the polling will likely still underestimate Republican support. There are certainly examples of 2018 polls of the Midwest that underestimated Republicans by smaller margins than the 2016 and 2020 polls.
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