Is Ohio Gone for Democrats Now?

[Pollster]

The voter file was updated with Ohio 2020 data last week, and I took a look at it today.

Democratic turnout was 81%, Republican turnout was a stratospheric 93%.

For comparison:
2018 was 68% Democratic, 81% Republican
2016 was 78% Democratic, 91% Republican
2012 was 74% Democratic, 86% Republican

This seems to fit into a few theories/explanations:

1. Ohio Democrats have a big turnout problem.
2. Polls disproportionately assumed higher turnout meant a Democratic advantage.
3. Trump was a near-unprecedented motivator of Republican turnout.
4. Republicans could very well struggle to turn out any of their voters who didn't participate in 2020, and seem to owe just as much of their statewide success to Democratic turnout failures as they do their own GOTV.

[Tintrlvr]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

It's not like Republicans couldn't win in those places in 2004, either; 2014 wasn't indicative of particular trends in Maine or Iowa beyond that they were always competitive to some degree. Chuck Grassley?

Also, why David Perdue?

[Neptunium]

The voter file was updated with Ohio 2020 data last week, and I took a look at it today.

Democratic turnout was 81%, Republican turnout was a stratospheric 93%.

For comparison:
2018 was 68% Democratic, 81% Republican
2016 was 78% Democratic, 91% Republican
2012 was 74% Democratic, 86% Republican

This seems to fit into a few theories/explanations:

1. Ohio Democrats have a big turnout problem.
2. Polls disproportionately assumed higher turnout meant a Democratic advantage.
3. Trump was a near-unprecedented motivator of Republican turnout.
4. Republicans could very well struggle to turn out any of their voters who didn't participate in 2020, and seem to owe just as much of their statewide success to Democratic turnout failures as they do their own GOTV.

Why don't you just assume some working class voter who register as Dem long time ago decide to vote Republican since them think Dem doesn't represent them anymore?

Just like WV democrat.

[Red Wall]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

No, it doesn't. We have a smaller AA population than the nation as a whole, and an even smaller Latino population. We are no longer comparable to the nation demographically speaking, which is why we are no longer one of the competitive swing states.

AA is OH are more socially Conservative than other midwestern states, they own guns and against SSM, just like PR in FL are more Conservative than Latinos in AZ due to guns and Cuban Embargo

2004 some AA voted R for Bush W instead of Kerry due to SSM, but Gephardt not Edwards could have helped Kerry more in OH with strong ties to WC Unions

Not when 2004 is one of the few years Ohio voted to the left of the nation as opposed to its typical R+1 to R+3 lean back then.

[Red Wall]

Dems are only going to notice Ohio is gone when they win some election by like 8 points and still votes R. Well not even, considering some thought of Missouri as competitive after 2008.

[Suburbia]

If Brown loses re-election in 2024, we can formally announce the death of the Ohio Democratic Party.

 

Tim Ryan, Jon Bocierri, and Nina Turner say hi.

[VAR]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

It's not like Republicans couldn't win in those places in 2004, either; 2014 wasn't indicative of particular trends in Maine or Iowa beyond that they were always competitive to some degree. Chuck Grassley?

Also, why David Perdue?

David Perdue did worse than Romney in 2014, even though 2014 was a much better year for the GOP than 2012. For example, he lost Henry County which Romney won in 2012.

[Morgan Kingsley]

With a candidate that shares Trump's ideas and relatively shares his rhetoric? Absolutely

With a less firey guy and a more pre 2015 style of policies? Tilt R, but not gone

Its just more of how realistic is the latter

[Yoda]

I'm more curious about this boards opinion on whether Ohio or Texas should be given higher priority in 2024 (Both for Presidential & Senate races)

Definitely Texas, especially given the fact that Cruz is up for reelection. He will have just run for President again and lost to whichever trump spawn the republicans nominate, and Texas will have undergone four more years of demographic change that benefits democrats.

[here2view]

I think it pretty much is, with Biden losing historically Democratic-leaning counties like Mahoning and Lorain in NE Ohio.

2020: Biden NPV +4.5, loses Ohio by 8 (12.5 points to the right of the nation)
2016: Clinton NPV +2, loses Ohio by 8 (10 points to the right of the nation)
2012: Obama NPV +4, wins Ohio by 3 (1 point to the left of the nation)

We'll wait to see if 2024 shows if Ohio's lurch to the right was mainly due to just Trump or not, but I suspect it's the later.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I think it pretty much is, with Biden losing historically Democratic-leaning counties like Mahoning and Lorain in NE Ohio.

2020: Biden NPV +4.5, loses Ohio by 8 (12.5 points to the right of the nation)
2016: Clinton NPV +2, loses Ohio by 8 (10 points to the right of the nation)
2012: Obama NPV +4, wins Ohio by 3 (1 point to the left of the nation)

We'll wait to see if 2024 shows if Ohio's lurch to the right was mainly due to just Trump or not, but I suspect it's the later.

DeWine has something to do with Trump winning OH and by 2024/ he will be old news due to fact he will be termi limited and Brown will win Re-election and Tim Ryan can run for open Gov race in  2026, just like Walker was the cause of WI drift to the right in Obama yrs and it went back D in 2018

[James Ericson]

No. Dems are close to the floor in rural areas, but have a ton of room to improve in the suburbs. 538 says that Ohio is not more rural than the country, so it is only a matter of time before it is competitive again. Democrats even have a chance to flip it as soon as 2028.

According to your arguement VT would flip to Republican as soon as 2028.

The difference is that Vermont is a Biden+36 state while Ohio is only Trump+8. I do think that Vermont will inevitably trend Republican, it will just take longer because of the gap being wider right now.

[Sailor Haumea]

No. Dems are close to the floor in rural areas, but have a ton of room to improve in the suburbs. 538 says that Ohio is not more rural than the country, so it is only a matter of time before it is competitive again. Democrats even have a chance to flip it as soon as 2028.

According to your arguement VT would flip to Republican as soon as 2028.

The difference is that Vermont is a Biden+36 state while Ohio is only Trump+8. I do think that Vermont will inevitably trend Republican, it will just take longer because of the gap being wider right now.

It won't, because while it's a very rural state, it's COLLEGE-EDUCATED rurals. Pretty much every county in the state has upwards of 30% college-educated adult population. This applies to New Hampshire as well.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are all missing the female vote in many of these threads which make up half the population. Females are always a swing group in OH and Hillary due to Bill Clinton , females weren't keen on Hillary. They love Sherrod Brown who will help D's win OH next election cycle

[Pollster]

The voter file was updated with Ohio 2020 data last week, and I took a look at it today.

Democratic turnout was 81%, Republican turnout was a stratospheric 93%.

For comparison:
2018 was 68% Democratic, 81% Republican
2016 was 78% Democratic, 91% Republican
2012 was 74% Democratic, 86% Republican

This seems to fit into a few theories/explanations:

1. Ohio Democrats have a big turnout problem.
2. Polls disproportionately assumed higher turnout meant a Democratic advantage.
3. Trump was a near-unprecedented motivator of Republican turnout.
4. Republicans could very well struggle to turn out any of their voters who didn't participate in 2020, and seem to owe just as much of their statewide success to Democratic turnout failures as they do their own GOTV.

Why don't you just assume some working class voter who register as Dem long time ago decide to vote Republican since them think Dem doesn't represent them anymore?

Just like WV democrat.

This is not voter registration, this is modeled party ID based on primary vote history, donation history, organization membership/product subscriptions, precinct and census tract regression, and various demographic characteristics.

Fwiw, the turnout numbers based on party registration in Ohio are slightly different but only at the margins.