Is Ohio Gone for Democrats Now?

[Gracile]

Yes, it's been gone for 4 years. This first should've been entertained in 2016, when it voted a whopping 10 points right of the nation. Then in 2018, further confirmation when it voted in a Republican governor in a blue wave year and Republicans won the statewide House vote by 5 points. At this point, to think it's worth contesting in a competitive national election is delusional, but I think it's so difficult for them because so many Democrats, beltway pundits, and pollsters legitimately cannot discern if an election is competitive or not.

Sherrod Brown won, in 2018, as well, if Biden not picked socialisic AA Harris and put Buttigieg on ballot as Veep he would have carried OH, or Klobuchar, as both did well in IA and Harris like Warren did bad in IA, as I said before UNLESS SHERROD BROWN LOSES IN 2024/ OH ISNT GONE, AND THE RS DONT HAVE NO ONE TO CHALLENGE BROWN.  BROWN IS FROM AKRON AND BIDEN LOST MAHONING COUNTY WHERE BROWN IS FROM

I doubt Buttigieg or Klobuchar as VP would have made Ohio much more competitive than it was in reality. And you can't really make assumptions like that from a presidential caucus in a completely different state.

[lfromnj]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it's been gone for 4 years. This first should've been entertained in 2016, when it voted a whopping 10 points right of the nation. Then in 2018, further confirmation when it voted in a Republican governor in a blue wave year and Republicans won the statewide House vote by 5 points. At this point, to think it's worth contesting in a competitive national election is delusional, but I think it's so difficult for them because so many Democrats, beltway pundits, and pollsters legitimately cannot discern if an election is competitive or not.

Sherrod Brown won, in 2018, as well, if Biden not picked socialisic AA Harris and put Buttigieg on ballot as Veep he would have carried OH, or Klobuchar, as both did well in IA and Harris like Warren did bad in IA, as I said before UNLESS SHERROD BROWN LOSES IN 2024/ OH ISNT GONE, AND THE RS DONT HAVE NO ONE TO CHALLENGE BROWN.  BROWN IS FROM AKRON AND BIDEN LOST MAHONING COUNTY WHERE BROWN IS FROM

I doubt Buttigieg or Klobuchar as VP would have made Ohio much more competitive than it was in reality. And you can't really make assumptions like that from a presidential caucus in a completely different state.

Bernie Sanders wanted to pick  Buttigieg due the fact he was weak in VA, against Trump, I stand my ground about Klobuchar and Buttigieg doing better than Harris in IA and OH.

The Iowa Rs called Harris an AA Socialist and Iowans loved Peter Buttigieg and wanted him nominated

Harris and Warren were dead last in Iowa polling in Buttigieg, Bernie and Klobuchar did well in IA .

IA is so much like OH

[bagelman]

If Democrats can just keep up the momentum here, we can flip the state back by 2664. Maybe if it's a big enough wave, 2660! We just need to push forward.

Serious answer depends on long term trends we just don't know right now. If Republicans try replacing DeWine with Jordan then Democrats can certainly win Columbus, and Brown is a proven winner.

[VAR]

Yes, it's been gone for 4 years. This first should've been entertained in 2016, when it voted a whopping 10 points right of the nation. Then in 2018, further confirmation when it voted in a Republican governor in a blue wave year and Republicans won the statewide House vote by 5 points. At this point, to think it's worth contesting in a competitive national election is delusional, but I think it's so difficult for them because so many Democrats, beltway pundits, and pollsters legitimately cannot discern if an election is competitive or not.

Sherrod Brown won, in 2018, as well, if Biden not picked socialisic AA Harris and put Buttigieg on ballot as Veep he would have carried OH, or Klobuchar, as both did well in IA and Harris like Warren did bad in IA, as I said before UNLESS SHERROD BROWN LOSES IN 2024/ OH ISNT GONE, AND THE RS DONT HAVE NO ONE TO CHALLENGE BROWN.  BROWN IS FROM AKRON AND BIDEN LOST MAHONING COUNTY WHERE BROWN IS FROM

I doubt Buttigieg or Klobuchar as VP would have made Ohio much more competitive than it was in reality. And you can't really make assumptions like that from a presidential caucus in a completely different state.

Bernie Sanders wanted to pick  Buttigieg due the fact he was weak in VA, against Trump, I stand my ground about Klobuchar and Buttigieg doing better than Harris in IA and OH.

The Iowa Rs called Harris an AA Socialist and Iowans loved Peter Buttigieg and wanted him nominated

Harris and Warren were dead last in Iowa polling in Buttigieg, Bernie and Klobuchar did well in IA .

IA is so much like OH

IA and OH are Safe R

[bagelman]

Yes, it's been gone for 4 years. This first should've been entertained in 2016, when it voted a whopping 10 points right of the nation. Then in 2018, further confirmation when it voted in a Republican governor in a blue wave year and Republicans won the statewide House vote by 5 points. At this point, to think it's worth contesting in a competitive national election is delusional, but I think it's so difficult for them because so many Democrats, beltway pundits, and pollsters legitimately cannot discern if an election is competitive or not.

Sherrod Brown won, in 2018, as well, if Biden not picked socialisic AA Harris and put Buttigieg on ballot as Veep he would have carried OH, or Klobuchar, as both did well in IA and Harris like Warren did bad in IA, as I said before UNLESS SHERROD BROWN LOSES IN 2024/ OH ISNT GONE, AND THE RS DONT HAVE NO ONE TO CHALLENGE BROWN.  BROWN IS FROM AKRON AND BIDEN LOST MAHONING COUNTY WHERE BROWN IS FROM

I doubt Buttigieg or Klobuchar as VP would have made Ohio much more competitive than it was in reality. And you can't really make assumptions like that from a presidential caucus in a completely different state.

Bernie Sanders wanted to pick  Buttigieg due the fact he was weak in VA, against Trump, I stand my ground about Klobuchar and Buttigieg doing better than Harris in IA and OH.

The Iowa Rs called Harris an AA Socialist and Iowans loved Peter Buttigieg and wanted him nominated

Harris and Warren were dead last in Iowa polling in Buttigieg, Bernie and Klobuchar did well in IA .

IA is so much like OH

IA and OH are Safe R

VA is Safe D

[VAR]

VA is Safe D

Well, I recognized that 3 years ago, but some IA and OH avatars are still insisting that their state is a 'swing state.' 

[mileslunn]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

Ha, HA, Ha, SHERROD BROWN ISNT LOSING IN 2024

[VAR]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

Ha, HA, Ha, SHERROD BROWN ISNT LOSING IN 2024

He will get Blanched and you'll eat crow

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

Ha, HA, Ha, SHERROD BROWN ISNT LOSING IN 2024

He will get Blanched and you'll eat crow

Lol, he's got a strong brand and will stick around.

[MoreThanPolitics]

If Brown loses re-election in 2024, we can formally announce the death of the Ohio Democratic Party.

 

[mileslunn]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

Ha, HA, Ha, SHERROD BROWN ISNT LOSING IN 2024

I meant presidential election, I don't see Democrats flipping Ohio in 2024.  Florida, North Carolina, and Texas are only states I could see Democrats flipping.  On other hand Wisconsin will be tough to hold while Nevada at risk.  Georgia and Arizona are trending blue but close enough I could see GOP winning them in 2024 but probably flip back in 2028 or 2023 and stay blue there on.  Michigan possible too but somewhat better shape.  Pennsylvania also too, but of blue wall states I think Democrats have brighter future there than other two.  New Hampshire also possible if next GOP leader a more Reagan like, but at this point I suspect more Trump like.

[Chips]

Probably so.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

If Brown loses re-election in 2024, we can formally announce the death of the Ohio Democratic Party.

 

Biden was competetive in polls in OH leading up to the Election, OH is not as far gone as you think, alot of the WC Strickland voters now belong to Brown, both of them do well in Eastern OH

if Brown wins in 2024/ Tim Ryan will probably run for the open seat for Gov in 2026

[James Ericson]

No. Dems are close to the floor in rural areas, but have a ton of room to improve in the suburbs. 538 says that Ohio is not more rural than the country, so it is only a matter of time before it is competitive again. Democrats even have a chance to flip it as soon as 2028.

[‎]

No. Dems are close to the floor in rural areas, but have a ton of room to improve in the suburbs. 538 says that Ohio is not more rural than the country, so it is only a matter of time before it is competitive again. Democrats even have a chance to flip it as soon as 2028.

Interesting idea. Do you consider a 70 - 30 margin to be maxed out, though (that's about the average margin for a rural Ohio county)? I think it could get to 80 - 20.

[James Ericson]

No. Dems are close to the floor in rural areas, but have a ton of room to improve in the suburbs. 538 says that Ohio is not more rural than the country, so it is only a matter of time before it is competitive again. Democrats even have a chance to flip it as soon as 2028.

Interesting idea. Do you consider a 70 - 30 margin to be maxed out, though (that's about the average margin for a rural Ohio county)? I think it could get to 80 - 20.

Rural Ohio voted like rural WV last year, (73-82%R 15-28%D, and most of the 60-70% counties on the wikipedia page were 67-69%R with Biden under 30% (not including the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs/exurbs)) and rural WV barely moved from 2016 to 2020.

[Neptunium]

No. Dems are close to the floor in rural areas, but have a ton of room to improve in the suburbs. 538 says that Ohio is not more rural than the country, so it is only a matter of time before it is competitive again. Democrats even have a chance to flip it as soon as 2028.

According to your arguement VT would flip to Republican as soon as 2028.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

OH IS JUST AS MUCH GONE FOR
 DS AS PA IS AS GONE FOR RS AND USERS ON THIS FORUM STILL THINK PA IS IN PLAY IN A FETTERMAN 2022/,CASEY 2024 matchup

[Yoda]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

No, it doesn't. We have a smaller AA population than the nation as a whole, and an even smaller Latino population. We are no longer comparable to the nation demographically speaking, which is why we are no longer one of the competitive swing states.

[mileslunn]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

No, it doesn't. We have a smaller AA population than the nation as a whole, and an even smaller Latino population. We are no longer comparable to the nation demographically speaking, which is why we are no longer one of the competitive swing states.

Hispanic is smaller, but African-American is 12% so pretty close to national average.  Cleveland and Cincinnati both large African-American communities as do smaller industrial cities.  Ohio has a larger African-American population than either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania which Biden won.

[Sailor Haumea]

Ask me again after the 2022 and 2024 elections and you'll have your answer.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

No, it doesn't. We have a smaller AA population than the nation as a whole, and an even smaller Latino population. We are no longer comparable to the nation demographically speaking, which is why we are no longer one of the competitive swing states.

AA is OH are more socially Conservative than other midwestern states, they own guns and against SSM, just like PR in FL are more Conservative than Latinos in AZ due to guns and Cuban Embargo

2004 some AA voted R for Bush W instead of Kerry due to SSM, but Gephardt not Edwards could have helped Kerry more in OH with strong ties to WC Unions

[Interlocutor]

I'm more curious about this boards opinion on whether Ohio or Texas should be given higher priority in 2024 (Both for Presidential & Senate races)