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January 21, 2021, 06:27:32 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Mid-sized cities in Texas that Biden won?
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Author Topic: Mid-sized cities in Texas that Biden won?  (Read 957 times)
Sailor Haumea
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« on: January 13, 2021, 08:03:04 PM »

Everyone talks about the "big" Texas cities (San Antonio, DFW, Austin), which Biden swept, but I'm curious if he carried any of the mid-sized cities.

Some that Biden might have won:

Corpus Christi
Killeen
College Station
Beaumont
Tyler
Wichita Falls
Longview
Victoria

Anyone want to take a crack at any of them?
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Infertile Fertility Deity
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2021, 08:06:21 PM »

I'm willing to bet that Biden didn't carry Tyler or Longview, given that he didn't crack 30% in either Gregg (about 2/3 of the population lives in Longview) or Smith (about 1/2 of the population lives in Tyler) Counties, neither of which have voted for a presidential Democrat since Truman.
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2021, 08:50:35 PM »

I'm willing to bet that Biden didn't carry Tyler or Longview, given that he didn't crack 30% in either Gregg (about 2/3 of the population lives in Longview) or Smith (about 1/2 of the population lives in Tyler) Counties, neither of which have voted for a presidential Democrat since Truman.
The precinct maps from 2016 and 2018 indicate that Clinton and Beto actually did quite well in Tyler and Longview, and Beto looks like he might have even won them, hence why I asked.
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2021, 03:22:06 AM »

Did Biden really win Victoria, TX?
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2021, 03:34:15 AM »

I'm not sure. I'm asking if anyone wants to take a shot at it because Beto appears to have done fairly well there.
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2021, 03:36:05 AM »

I'm not sure. I'm asking if anyone wants to take a shot at it because Beto appears to have done fairly well there.
I always thought of Victoria as a GOP-leaning city by virtue of its location and demographics but I could be horridly wrong.
What was the Trump margin in the county that holds Victoria?
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2021, 03:50:24 AM »

I'm not sure. I'm asking if anyone wants to take a shot at it because Beto appears to have done fairly well there.
I always thought of Victoria as a GOP-leaning city by virtue of its location and demographics but I could be horridly wrong.
What was the Trump margin in the county that holds Victoria?
Trump+37.97
Was Cruz+40.28 in 2018, Trump+39.87 in 2016
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2021, 03:54:19 AM »

I'm not sure. I'm asking if anyone wants to take a shot at it because Beto appears to have done fairly well there.
I always thought of Victoria as a GOP-leaning city by virtue of its location and demographics but I could be horridly wrong.
What was the Trump margin in the county that holds Victoria?
Trump+37.97
Was Cruz+40.28 in 2018, Trump+39.87 in 2016
Victoria is 75% of the population of the county. Very hard to see it being Biden-voting in that case.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2021, 04:57:46 AM »

Everyone talks about the "big" Texas cities (San Antonio, DFW, Austin), which Biden swept, but I'm curious if he carried any of the mid-sized cities.

Some that Biden might have won:

Corpus Christi
Killeen
College Station
Beaumont
Tyler
Wichita Falls
Longview
Victoria

Anyone want to take a crack at any of them?

Waco, Texas likely backed Biden in 2020 (regardless of split precincts):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.msg5906638#msg5906638
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2021, 07:14:42 AM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2021, 11:30:29 AM »

I'm not sure. I'm asking if anyone wants to take a shot at it because Beto appears to have done fairly well there.
I always thought of Victoria as a GOP-leaning city by virtue of its location and demographics but I could be horridly wrong.
What was the Trump margin in the county that holds Victoria?
Trump+37.97
Was Cruz+40.28 in 2018, Trump+39.87 in 2016
Victoria is 75% of the population of the county. Very hard to see it being Biden-voting in that case.

Biden only won 8 of the 35 precincts in Victoria County, so I doubt he won the city.
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Blairite
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2021, 12:19:37 PM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.

College Station votes right of Bryan? Weird.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2021, 12:31:12 PM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.

College Station votes right of Bryan? Weird.

Texas A&M is extremely conservative leaning for a public university while Bryan has more minorities than College Station IIRC.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2021, 02:47:40 PM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.

Are you sure? Brazos County swung like 10 points left, biggest swing among SEC counties next only to Fayette County, KY.
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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2021, 05:04:04 PM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.

College Station votes right of Bryan? Weird.

Texas A&M is extremely conservative leaning for a public university while Bryan has more minorities than College Station IIRC.
If I'm not mistaken, a lot of the student body lives in Bryan, and Clinton won it so Biden definitely did too.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2021, 06:06:58 PM »

McAllen?
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Now We Are Free
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2021, 06:11:34 PM »

Biden definitely had to have won Beaumont, which is close to majority black.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2021, 03:59:41 AM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.

Are you sure? Brazos County swung like 10 points left, biggest swing among SEC counties next only to Fayette County, KY.

College Station appears to have voted for Trump in 2020:



There was definitely a major Biden swing in the City compared to 2016, and wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a "Towns and Gowns" gap in Trump's favor, compared to the Texas A&M Student population.... (Haven't even really looked at Bryan yet alone off-campus precincts in College Station)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=414071.msg7897313#msg7897313
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2021, 05:00:19 AM »

Definitely not College Station....Bryan, perhaps by narrow margins...but not C-Stat.

College Station votes right of Bryan? Weird.

Texas A&M is extremely conservative leaning for a public university while Bryan has more minorities than College Station IIRC.
If I'm not mistaken, a lot of the student body lives in Bryan, and Clinton won it so Biden definitely did too.

Not quite sure where you are getting HRC winning Bryan (Hopefully not from one of my posts... )

Bryan, Texas--- 2020 GE PRES:

2020:

Biden:   13,039  (47.0%)       (+3.5% Trump)      +6.5% Biden Swing
Trump:  14,001  (50.5%)
Misc:         701    (2.5%)
Total:    27,741                      + 26.8% increase in Turnout 2016 > 2020.

2016:

HRC:       9,052   (41.4%)       (+10.0% Trump)
Trump:  11,237   (51.4%)
Misc:       1,588   (7.3%)
Total:     21,877

Here is the 2020 GE PRES Precinct Table, and hopefully things didn't shift that much between '16 and '20 when it comes to the City Limits signs....

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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2021, 05:06:37 AM »

What about Killeen?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2021, 05:51:10 AM »


Here are some numbers I had floating around on my PC from 2016 (But welcome anyone to fact check me and keep me honest in my Whole Cards at the Poker Table)...



More than happy to run the numbers for 2020 as needed....   
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: January 15, 2021, 05:58:27 AM »


Here are some numbers I had floating around on my PC from 2016 (But welcome anyone to fact check me and keep me honest in my Whole Cards at the Poker Table)...



More than happy to run the numbers for 2020 as needed....   
Please do. Am a bit surprised by the HRC margin, tbh.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: January 15, 2021, 04:14:29 PM »


Here are some numbers I had floating around on my PC from 2016 (But welcome anyone to fact check me and keep me honest in my Whole Cards at the Poker Table)...



More than happy to run the numbers for 2020 as needed....   
Please do. Am a bit surprised by the HRC margin, tbh.

Here are the 2020 precinct numbers from Killeen (I forgot I had already run the numbers on the 2020 PRES Military Vote thread).   

Haven't really run the "Off-Base" numbers yet for Fort Hood, but Killeen, Texas is definitely a "Base Community", including a significant amount of US Armed Forces & Families, not to mention Civilian Contractors whose jobs are directly connected to the base.

Killen, Texas:

2020 GE PRES:

Biden:    28,171   (63.5%)        (+29.4% Biden)      (+4.6% Biden Swing)
Trump:   15,151   (34.1%)
Misc:       1,047    (2.6%)
Total:      44,369                      ( +36.5% increase in TV from 2016 to 2020).

2016 GE PRES:

HRC:      19,285   (59.3%)         (+24.8% HRC)
Trump:   11,206   (34.5%)
Misc:       2,013    (6.2%)
Total:      32,504



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Sailor Haumea
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« Reply #23 on: January 15, 2021, 04:33:32 PM »

Mind doing Tyler or Longview?
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« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2021, 05:04:49 PM »


Did the quick and dirty 2016 numbers on DRA (approximation):

Tyler, TX
Trump 22251 (58.8%)
Clinton 13750 (36.3%)
Other 1852 (4.9%)

Longview, TX
Trump 15750 (64.1%)
Clinton 7997 (32.6%)
Other 820 (3.3%)

It's safe to say neither flipped in 2020. Both Smith and Gregg each only swung 4 points to Biden compared to 2016.
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