Which of these states will trend D in 2024?
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  Which of these states will trend D in 2024?
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Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Which ones?
#1
New Mexico
 
#2
Wyoming
 
#3
Montana
 
#4
North Dakota
 
#5
South Dakota
 
#6
Nebraska
 
#7
Oklahoma
 
#8
Missouri
 
#9
Minnesota
 
#10
Michigan
 
#11
Indiana
 
#12
Kentucky
 
#13
Tennessee
 
#14
West Virginia
 
#15
South Carolina
 
#16
Delaware
 
#17
Connecticut
 
#18
Rhode Island
 
#19
Vermont
 
#20
New Hampshire
 
#21
Maine
 
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Author Topic: Which of these states will trend D in 2024?  (Read 1799 times)
Left Wing
FalterinArc
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« on: January 15, 2021, 07:20:12 PM »

These are all states that trended R in 2016 and then reversed their trend this year. How many of them will continue to trends this way and how many do you suspect will become more Republican again?
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2021, 07:46:45 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2021, 08:39:03 PM »

WY, MT, ND, NE, OK, KY, TN, WV. The others trend R, least sure about IN.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2021, 08:50:20 PM »

Probably depends on who the candidate is. I'd say for the most part there will be a rightward shift minus a few states.
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Vern
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2021, 09:20:34 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2021, 09:27:22 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2021, 09:34:22 PM by Roll Roons »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.

The Nashville/Murfreesboro area is growing quickly and attracting a lot of liberal young people, with Memphis also providing another solid Democratic base. Obviously the state is safe R for 2024, but it’s not impossible to see Nashville becoming another Atlanta a few more cycles down the road. Smaller cities like Chattanooga and Knoxville may also be worth watching.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2021, 09:31:06 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.
As Nashville grows and attracts more college educated whites and minorities the vote share for Democrats will increase. A lot of the rural areas are close to maxed out for the GOP. And Knoxville and Chattanooga could easily be Democratic stronghold if Democrats bring out more voters from these cities. So to recap, rural areas are close to maxed out for the GOP, Nashville continues to grow and the surrounding suburbs are getting bluer, Chattanooga and Knoxville are getting bluer so if the GOP doesn’t find new voters outside of the rural areas and they keep bleeding support among the college educated, yes TN could very well be competitive one day.
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Vern
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2021, 10:09:19 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.

The Nashville/Murfreesboro area is growing quickly and attracting a lot of liberal young people, with Memphis also providing another solid Democratic base. Obviously the state is safe R for 2024, but it’s not impossible to see Nashville becoming another Atlanta a few more cycles down the road. Smaller cities like Chattanooga and Knoxville may also be worth watching.

Nashville will not put up the numbers like Atlanta. You looking at Atlanta voting close to 80%+ for Democrats, while Nashville will stay around 60%. While I understand why you could see it being like GA. I just don't think Nashville will ever put up the numbers like Atlanta to cancel the rest of the state out.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2021, 10:20:39 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.

The Nashville/Murfreesboro area is growing quickly and attracting a lot of liberal young people, with Memphis also providing another solid Democratic base. Obviously the state is safe R for 2024, but it’s not impossible to see Nashville becoming another Atlanta a few more cycles down the road. Smaller cities like Chattanooga and Knoxville may also be worth watching.

Nashville will not put up the numbers like Atlanta. You looking at Atlanta voting close to 80%+ for Democrats, while Nashville will stay around 60%. While I understand why you could see it being like GA. I just don't think Nashville will ever put up the numbers like Atlanta to cancel the rest of the state out.
The last Democrat that performed as well as Joe Biden in Nashville was FDR, it is well on its way to reaching +70% Democrat. Also Fulton and Dekalb weren’t always as Democratic either, they looked a lot like Nashville in the 90s and 2000s but here we are...
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Catalunya
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« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2021, 04:52:40 AM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.

The Nashville/Murfreesboro area is growing quickly and attracting a lot of liberal young people, with Memphis also providing another solid Democratic base. Obviously the state is safe R for 2024, but it’s not impossible to see Nashville becoming another Atlanta a few more cycles down the road. Smaller cities like Chattanooga and Knoxville may also be worth watching.

Nashville will not put up the numbers like Atlanta. You looking at Atlanta voting close to 80%+ for Democrats, while Nashville will stay around 60%. While I understand why you could see it being like GA. I just don't think Nashville will ever put up the numbers like Atlanta to cancel the rest of the state out.
The last Democrat that performed as well as Joe Biden in Nashville was FDR, it is well on its way to reaching +70% Democrat. Also Fulton and Dekalb weren’t always as Democratic either, they looked a lot like Nashville in the 90s and 2000s but here we are...
When would you say Tennessee could become a purple state?
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2021, 05:14:18 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2021, 05:51:04 AM by EastwoodS »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.

The Nashville/Murfreesboro area is growing quickly and attracting a lot of liberal young people, with Memphis also providing another solid Democratic base. Obviously the state is safe R for 2024, but it’s not impossible to see Nashville becoming another Atlanta a few more cycles down the road. Smaller cities like Chattanooga and Knoxville may also be worth watching.

Nashville will not put up the numbers like Atlanta. You looking at Atlanta voting close to 80%+ for Democrats, while Nashville will stay around 60%. While I understand why you could see it being like GA. I just don't think Nashville will ever put up the numbers like Atlanta to cancel the rest of the state out.
The last Democrat that performed as well as Joe Biden in Nashville was FDR, it is well on its way to reaching +70% Democrat. Also Fulton and Dekalb weren’t always as Democratic either, they looked a lot like Nashville in the 90s and 2000s but here we are...
When would you say Tennessee could become a purple state?
If I had to extrapolate, with out doing much math, we probably won't see the trend too much in the 2020's; I think it will probably stay somewhat neutral, it may swing slightly to the right if the Democrats win 2024 and Republican wins in 2028. We'll probably see some major shifts in the early 2030's, though. My best guess, as of right now, probably the late 2030s or early-mid 2040s. If it flips, it will be due to the influx of young white liberals pulling the state to the left. A lot of variables though, this prediction relies heavily on current trends.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2021, 05:52:02 AM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.

I don't see how you get this. Please explain.
As Nashville grows and attracts more college educated whites and minorities the vote share for Democrats will increase. A lot of the rural areas are close to maxed out for the GOP. And Knoxville and Chattanooga could easily be Democratic stronghold if Democrats bring out more voters from these cities. So to recap, rural areas are close to maxed out for the GOP, Nashville continues to grow and the surrounding suburbs are getting bluer, Chattanooga and Knoxville are getting bluer so if the GOP doesn’t find new voters outside of the rural areas and they keep bleeding support among the college educated, yes TN could very well be competitive one day.

Tennessee is nowhere near as black as Georgia, despite whites being pretty much as Republican. I think that’s a big barrier. Nashville makes up a smaller proportion of the state than Atlanta, and its suburbs are primarily white and Evangelical, unlike the ‘black Mecca’ reputation of Atlanta. Yes, there’s nowhere for the Dems to go but up in Tennessee, but don’t expect it to become anywhere near competitive any time soon.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2021, 09:42:51 AM »

All of the D plus MT, Tester may win reelection even if Gianforte wins Reelection.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2021, 05:28:43 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.
TN more rural than GA.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2021, 06:07:06 PM »

Tennessee maybe? It has the potential to be the next Georgia.
TN more rural than GA.
Tru
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Chips
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2021, 11:29:37 PM »

Very heavy Trumpist states would probably ease up a bit. WY and WV.
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