UK parliamentary boundary review

[JerryArkansas]

If there was a tool like DRA for the UK we could have some fun drawing maps or hilarious gerrymanders

Sadly, no such tool exists

https://boundaryassistant.org/

Huh, that is a very interesting and fun tool! Sadly, it has no election data of any kind which is half the fun of DRA

That’s because there are no official general election results released in the UK for anything below the constituency level. However, as TimTurner says, Electoral Calculus has ward-level estimates using regression modelling. Anyway, due to tactical voting, nominal results under new boundaries are often not particularly useful guides to how a seat might vote.

If I recall, in the last review that went trough, a few seats that were using that regression model said to be Lib Dem seats were easily held by the conservative.  York Outer comes to mind in that regard.

[JerryArkansas]

MPs are now getting the boundaries, so we should expect a leak or two before the release at midnight local time.

[JerryArkansas]

And their website has crashed.  There must be more of us boundary geeks than I thought.

From what I'm seeing these aren't good.  For gods sake a Chester North and South.

[JerryArkansas]

As I said elsewhere, it has the least amount of bad presents so far. 

[JerryArkansas]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone extending into north Armagh..

That'll presumably make it a safe Unionist seat?

I can't see it becoming safe Unionist, but I'm sure it moves in that direction (and notionally flips SF to UUP).

Strange, I saw somewhere else someone say the exact opposite.  The move makes the seat slightly more nationaist.