UK parliamentary boundary review (user search)
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April 26, 2024, 09:08:42 AM
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Author Topic: UK parliamentary boundary review  (Read 20181 times)
DL
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Posts: 3,417
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« on: November 08, 2022, 12:40:42 PM »

Has there been any analysis yet of what the results of the 2019 election would have been transposed to these boundaries?

Obviously if Labour continues to have these massive leads over the Tories they will win no matter what but is there any sense of whether the new maps favour or disfavour any party?
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,417
Canada


« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2022, 05:47:23 PM »

So does Scotland lose seats in this new map? If so that would only hurt the SNP, right?
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,417
Canada


« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2023, 09:49:31 AM »

The official notional election results will be published by Professors Thrasher (Sky News) and Rallings (ITN) sometime later this year, my guess is certainly before the end of the year, but thanks to the House of Commons publishing a similarity index, a friend of mine has sent me the following unoffical calculations

Unoffical Notional Electrion 2019
Conservatives 371 seats
Labour 200 seats
Scottish National Party 48 seats
Liberal Democrats 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 2 seats
Green Party 1 seat
Speaker 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, SDLP 2, Alliance 1)
Conservative majority of 94 / 100 when allowing for Sinn Fein and Speaker(


It would be helpful to see plusses and minusses with this chart to show how many seats each party notionally gains or loses compared to 2019. Of course the swing in the next UK election is likely to be so massive that all of this will be swept away anyways.
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