UK parliamentary boundary review (user search)
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Author Topic: UK parliamentary boundary review  (Read 19792 times)
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« on: September 07, 2021, 08:38:03 PM »

The actual welsh boundaries are out if people wanna check them and see it in more detail. To my eye the leak looks like it was accurate.


https://www.bcw-reviews.org.uk/publications

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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2021, 11:20:47 PM »

I'm not familiar with how Wales looks on the ground, but even I can see how ugly this is. Ceredigion Preseli is probably the worst. Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Islwyn and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney are also very strange - why cross into neighbouring valleys instead of drawing them north-south like now? Ugh.
Population of COI's don't always line up with electoral quotas, when you have a strict variance limit there's not much you can do about having to split some communities up.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2021, 07:09:59 AM »

Terrible map, no VRA districts and draws out liberal democrats.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2021, 09:29:19 AM »

Out of curiosity, Has anyone calculated how many seats are there where white British/Scottish/Irish isn't the largest ethnicity?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2022, 12:32:27 AM »

Any chance Westmorland and Lonsdale survives the boundary review ?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2022, 03:19:21 AM »

Any chance Westmorland and Lonsdale survives the boundary review ?

Possibly in a heavily modified form.

Unsurprisingly its the Lib Dems whose proposal tries hardest to keep it.  They add the southern end of Copeland district (Millom and surroundings; IIRC this is where one of our posters lives, so perhaps he will comment) to the Barrow constituency, allowing it not to include the Cartmel peninsula (the Grange-over-Sands area, which is only connected to the rest of the proposed Barrow seat by rail, something they repeatedly point out).  So Cartmel can stay in Westmorland & Lonsdale, and they manage to move only two wards into their Morecambe-based seat; all that means it can just expand to the historic county boundary in Eden district, taking in Kirkby Stephen and Appleby-in-Westmorland but not Penrith.  Even this is surely notionally Tory, but the Lib Dems have a local track record in some of the added areas and I think they'd fancy their chances of Farron holding it, particularly if the Tories aren't doing that well nationally.

Elsewhere in Cumbria they propose Whitehaven & Workington and Penrith & Solway seats and support the BCE's Carlisle.  Their partisan motivation is fairly obvious, but IMO their proposal works better than either the Initial Proposals (which the Tories support) or Labour's, which like the Lib Dems' merges Whitehaven and Workington, but unlike the Lib Dems' puts the more rural parts of Copeland district in a seat with the Kendal/Windermere area over the fells.  So the Lib Dems might have a chance here.
Genrarly how much attention gets paid to party submissions for the boundary review? does any party have a better record in getting the commission to approve their plan ?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2022, 02:22:31 PM »

In practice you're always talking of a small handful of seats. Because of the strange quirk of the 2005 election seeing a big Labour majority on a small Labour popular vote lead, a lot of Conservatives convinced themselves that there was a massive pro-Labour bias in the system, thus this new rules. And that was always a complete delusion: the reason for that odd result was Labour performed poorly in many usually 'safe' seats in 2005 (largely due to direct losses of votes to the LibDems over Iraq) but held up well against the Conservatives in marginals and swingy seats.
What is the new rule ?
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