UK parliamentary boundary review (user search)
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  UK parliamentary boundary review (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK parliamentary boundary review  (Read 19794 times)
Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

« on: November 08, 2022, 06:33:08 PM »

So does Scotland lose seats in this new map? If so that would only hurt the SNP, right?
Not really - the new boundaries look like they’ll slightly favour them in several seats, notably the highly marginal seats currently held by Lib Dems Jamie Stone, and Wendy Chamberlain.

Scotland losing two seats just reflects long-term population trends - and you’d have to make some very disingenuous arguments to suggest that Scotland was somehow being politically silenced by losing those seats.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2023, 09:16:42 AM »

Taking it all with a pinch of salt of course. But there are still some pretty wild results in there that are highly engaging if nothing else. Both Isle of Wight seats going Labour for one. Rees-Mogg and Coffey going down to a narrow defeats. Frome and East Somerset turning into a true three-way marginal that costs the Lib Dems victory over the Tories. Rosie Duffield somehow winning a 20k majority. I could go on.

Scottish results are wildly marginal in some seats - Lib Dems lose Mid Dumbartonshire (successor to the old Swinson seat) by 30 votes, Mhairi Black's seat stays SNP by 163 votes. East Kilbridge and Strathaven stays SNP by 12 votes, thanks to the Tory vote holding up, despite a huge swing to Labour. Starting to see why the exit poll has such a margin of error up here, compared to the country at large.

Lots of seats turn into three-way marginals under the model - with the Lib Dems boxed out of SNP-Tory-Labour races in seats they used to win, and where the SNP are most reliably placed to hold on. That's basically the story of the whole west coast, from Ayrshire, through Argyll, up to Ross and Cromerty.

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Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2023, 01:07:16 PM »
« Edited: September 01, 2023, 04:35:09 PM by Torrain »

Oh, I'm definitely not punching down on Electionmapsuk - guy produces some great content, and it's nice to have a first look at how the new seats could play. Just always amused by some of the outliers that universal swing, on untested boundaries, will produce!

And definitely agree that tactical voting should positively impact a fair number of races for the Lib Dem races.
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