UK parliamentary boundary review

[YL]

How can I remove wards from constituencies as I go along?

Set them to "Unassigned" (at the top of the constituency list in Boundary Assistant).

Also, are there any estimates by polling district?

Not in general yet, but it's possible to find figures for some councils.

[Geoffrey Howe]

How can I remove wards from constituencies as I go along?

Set them to "Unassigned" (at the top of the constituency list in Boundary Assistant).

Also, are there any estimates by polling district?

Not in general yet, but it's possible to find figures for some councils.

Thanks. Which councils (is there a website)?

[Conservatopia]

Just having a quick decco at the areas I'm familiar with.

That N. Swansea/Loughor seat is a bit unusual.  It stretches between some fairly disparate areas.  The Gorseinon, Loughor, Gowerton area is more similar to the rest of Gower.  Would it be easier to try and recreate the old Gower seat but have The Mumbles in Seat 30?  Correct me if the numbers wouldn't work out.

That's one of the areas I wasn't happy with.  An alternative I have there keeps the Gower seat except for removing Clydach and Mawr and adding a few wards currently in Swansea West (the Killays, Dunvant and Cockett), turns seat 30 into more of a Swansea Central seat, and adds Clydach, Mawr, Morriston, Llansamlet and Bonymaen to seat 29.

I like that apart from that it would presumably put Gower out of reach for my party.

[vileplume]

Just having a quick decco at the areas I'm familiar with.

That N. Swansea/Loughor seat is a bit unusual.  It stretches between some fairly disparate areas.  The Gorseinon, Loughor, Gowerton area is more similar to the rest of Gower.  Would it be easier to try and recreate the old Gower seat but have The Mumbles in Seat 30?  Correct me if the numbers wouldn't work out.

Seat 25 is also slightly strange.  Could a seat anchored on Porthcawl be viable?  I get you're trying to follow county lines though but personally splitting Porth and Bridgend seems better.

I like what you've done in Cardiff, Caerphilly and Pontypridd.  The valleys look good too.  Would the Shadow Home Secretary be a little safer now in Torfaen?

Splitting Powys still makes sense.

The Aberystwyth-Fishguard seat is cool too.

No he'd become a little bit less safe, as making the Torfaen constituency coterminous with the borough of the same name (as is sensible) just adds the Cwmbran suburbs of Croesyceiliog and Llanyrafon. These are both a fair bit more Tory inclined than most of the rest of the borough (other than their traditional stronghold of New Inn).

[YL]

Plans with new seats for Sussex and Surrey:



The new seat would be regarded as being whichever of 9 and 10 isn't the successor to the existing Mid Sussex.  Elsewhere, Littlehampton is separated from Bognor Regis and joins Arundel, Hastings & Rye and Eastbourne contract a little, and there is little change to the Brighton and Worthing area seats.



Seat 12, Dorking & Godalming, takes on parts of Mole Valley and South West Surrey and the southern end of the existing Guildford seat.  The Leatherhead seat, seat 7, is also effectively new.  Woking (3) becomes coterminous with its borough and Guildford (5) entirely contained within its.

[YL]

There are a number of options for a seven seat Oxfordshire, but eventually I settled on this one:



The new seat is Bicester & Woodstock (yellow).  Banbury loses Bicester and takes on the Chipping Norton area to compensate; this has the effect of forcing the Witney seat (purple) to cross the Thames and take on the Faringdon and Kingston Bagpuize areas, which is a bit unfortunate, but I think the rest of the seats work well enough to justify it.  Oxford West & Abingdon (turquoise) regains Oxford city centre from Oxford East (blue) and no doubt becomes safer for the Lib Dems, but the new seat would be Tory.

[Oryxslayer]

Initial Boundary report proposal to be released tomorrow.

[JerryArkansas]

MPs are now getting the boundaries, so we should expect a leak or two before the release at midnight local time.

[Oryxslayer]

Twitter rumors (AKA grain of salt)

Devonwall is not happening

Cumbria-Lancashire seat because of losses in the NW. Wyre and Preston region particularly affected.

NE losses partially forced on Sunderland.

[YL]

Twitter rumors (AKA grain of salt)

Devonwall is not happening

But apparently there is a Devon-Somerset seat.  This isn't necessary -- both counties can be done on their own, though Devon is not easy -- so it will be interesting to see the justification.

A Devonwall not forced by the numbers would have been inviting pitchforks on a scale not seen since they suggested splitting Sutton Coldfield.

Cumbria-Lancashire seat because of losses in the NW. Wyre and Preston region particularly affected.

Cumbria/Lancashire is inevitable: Cumbria can't be done on its own and the regional approach means Lancs is the only option.

[Conservatopia]

Had Devonwall gone ahead I think we would need UN Peacekeepers on the Tamar.

[YL]

And their website has crashed.  There must be more of us boundary geeks than I thought.

[JerryArkansas]

And their website has crashed.  There must be more of us boundary geeks than I thought.

From what I'm seeing these aren't good.  For gods sake a Chester North and South.

[Oryxslayer]

I have the shapefile and will be uploading thoughts here.

MAP KEY:

Colors are 2019 (2021 Hartlepool) winners. New Lines are black, old red.

Cornwall:



Old Camborne and Redruth is gone. Its now a north coast seat with Truro and St. Ives absorbing the south

[vileplume]

And their website has crashed.  There must be more of us boundary geeks than I thought.

From what I'm seeing these aren't good.  For gods sake a Chester North and South.

To be fair that area is not easy due to the Wirral having a spare third of a seat which basically forces a split of either Chester or Ellesmere Port. The only way to avoid this would be to cross from the Wirral into Liverpool which is a big no, no.

[Alcibiades]

The new Wimbledon constituency is incredibly ugly, with an unwealdy arm reaching out into Motspur Park and Old Malden.

[Oryxslayer]

Devon:



Little bit of Churn in the West, SW Devon changes shape. Exmouth has more of Exeter and less of the outlying areas. Say hello to new SomerDevon seat Tiverton & Minehead around Exmoor. 

[vileplume]

I have the shapefile and will be uploading thoughts here.

MAP KEY:

Colors are 2019 (2021 Hartlepool) winners. New Lines are black, old red.

Cornwall:



Old Camborne and Redruth is gone. Its now a north coast seat with Truro and St. Ives absorbing the south

It's not gone at all. Camborne and Redruth keeps the vast majority of its old electorate, all they've done is shifted around a few rural areas. The changes look far bigger than they actually are.

[Oryxslayer]

Somerset



Lots of churn. Taunton Deene is now just Taunton thanks to shrinkage.  New Birdgwater seat. Weston Super Mare has shrunk, might be held by Labour whenever they form the next government. bath and Bristol got a lot of work....



Jacob Rees-Mogg's constituency got cracked HARD, but I suspect he can win Frome. Bath Expands. Fifth new Bristol seat in the east of the city and includes New Cheltenham. +1 Lab. Filton & Bradley Stoke loses the coastal territory. May also be a Labour target in a competitive election.

[YL]

From a first glance I think some areas have been done well -- I'm quite happy with what they've done in my own area for a start -- but there are some car crashes.  The NW looks particularly bad.

Opinions may change when I have a fuller look.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Can anyone post a picture of London?

[Oryxslayer]

Can anyone post a picture of London?

I'm not going to bother with having old and new lines on one map here, too much confusion. First thing that stands out to me is the end of the Parallel Hammersmith and Kensington seats, and CoL is in a Labour seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Dorset:



Nothing major I can see. Maybe Mid Dorset & Poole North getting an arm to reach around the harbor  is notable?

Hampshire Coast:



Southampton, Portsmouth, and New Forest seats remain untouched. New Tory seat on Wight as ordered. Eastleigh shrinks, Fareham moves east, and Hedge End is a new seat.

Wiltshire:



Seats cross the Gloucestshire border...more than once I think. Swindon is a point of oddity. All the urban areas remain in the two seats, but the double encirclement of Swindon South by East Wiltshire looks off for some reason.

[Oryxslayer]

Gloucestershire



Stroud shrinks, one has to assume this hurts the Tories. The lines around Gloucester city are awkward given that the urban area is larger that one seat. Tewkesbury shrinks, and The Cotswolds grows.

[Oryxslayer]

Sussex(s)



A lot of churn but from afar the lines look better than previously - no Mid Sussex squiggle.

From west to east, Bogner Regis expands. New Littlehampton seat that reaches inland. Old Shoreham seat is dead, it shifts west and is now Worthing with Goring by Sea. New Shoreham seat is the closest thing to the old Arundel, but Arundel lacks any real heir. the inland was carved up to benefit the coast. Brighton shrinks in the east but stays the same.  Lewes loses the north. The seats further east continue the trend of a shrinking coast and a growing interior.

Hailsham and Crowborough succeeds Wealdon. East Grinstead and Uckfield is a new seat created via the carve-up of others in the region. Crawley is the same. Mid Sussx is truly in the middle and built around Haywards Heath.


Kent



The Thanet seats are now east and west. Canterbury loses Sturry, not any rural areas. Ashford is now a east-facing seat rather than west. This reorganizes the two rural seats to the northwest. New Maidstone and Malling seat, fixes the previous carve-up.