UK parliamentary boundary review

[CumbrianLefty]

Whitehaven & Workington also appears to be notionally Conservative, though more narrowly than the existing Copeland

What are the notionals you have seen for that one?

I would have thought it fairly close even in 2019.

[YL]

Whitehaven & Workington also appears to be notionally Conservative, though more narrowly than the existing Copeland

What are the notionals you have seen for that one?

I would have thought it fairly close even in 2019.

Electoral Calculus has a Tory majority of just over 3000.  Pete Whitehead on Vote UK had a slightly bigger one; that was based on the second round of proposals and as you will know the final proposals made further adjustments here, but I don't think those can wipe out the majority.

[CumbrianLefty]

I am slightly surprised it is that big tbh.

Trudy Harrison's lack of interest in contesting it surely tells its own story.

[YL]

Durham, the Tees Valley, Gateshead, Sunderland and South Tyneside

Stockton South loses areas just south of Stockton town centre to Stockton North and gains some more rural areas in the west of that seat, together with some of the rural parts of Darlington borough currently in Sedgefield, and is renamed Stockton West.  It also loses part of Thornaby to Middlesbrough, which is renamed Middlesbrough & Thornaby East and also has some small swaps of territory with Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, which loses Saltburn by the Sea to Redcar.

Sedgefield loses all its territory in Darlington borough, either to Stockton West or to Darlington, and gains Spennymoor from Bishop Auckland and Bowburn from City of Durham and is renamed Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor, although Sedgefield is still in it.

Bishop Auckland gains Weardale from North West Durham, which is effectively abolished.  Parts go to City of Durham and to North Durham, but the largest part, including Consett, crosses into Gateshead borough to form a new constituency called Blaydon & Consett, also including the western part of the current Blaydon.  The central part of Blaydon joins most of Gateshead in Gateshead Central & Whickham, while two eastern wards of Gateshead join Jarrow in Jarrow & Gateshead East.

The remaining parts of Blaydon are added to Washington & Sunderland West, which also loses its South Tyneside component to South Shields and its one Sunderland ward south of the Wear to Houghton & Sunderland South, and is renamed Washington & Gateshead South.

Stockton West will be a bit harder for Labour to win than Stockton South, and Darlington will be slightly harder to win back.  Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor, on the other hand, should be easier for Labour to win, and the abolition of North West Durham means the Tories are notionally down one in this area.  The partisan effect on Bishop Auckland seems to be quite small.

[YL]

I am slightly surprised it is that big tbh.

Trudy Harrison's lack of interest in contesting it surely tells its own story.

I was a bit surprised too, though you will not be surprised to learn that I am more familiar with the rural parts of Cumbria than the west coast towns.  Notionals of course are not an exact science and maybe the calculations here have underestimated the urban/rural divide in the existing Copeland and Workington constituencies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The figures are very obviously wrong, as there's no way that a constituency including the entire postindustrial coastal strip other than Maryport would have had a majority only slightly lower than the Workington constituency.

[YL]

The figures are very obviously wrong, as there's no way that a constituency including the entire postindustrial coastal strip other than Maryport would have had a majority only slightly lower than the Workington constituency.

I asked Pete in the other place about the final boundaries, and he gave a Tory majority of 2073.

[YL]

Northumberland including the whole historic county

North Tyneside is abolished.  Wallsend goes to Newcastle upon Tyne East, which again becomes Newcastle upon Tyne East & Wallsend.  The Longbenton area goes to a very heavily redrawn Newcastle upon Tyne North, which also gains Jesmond from East but loses the western fringe of the city.  The northern end of North Tyneside (constituency) -- Killingworth, Wideopen etc., joins the Cramlington and Seaton Valley parts of Blyth Valley in a new constituency called Cramlington & Killingworth, which also includes the rather oddly named Castle ward on the northern edge of Newcastle.

Meanwhile Newcastle upon Tyne Central extends a little further west and is renamed Newcastle upon Tyne West & Central.  The rest of the western fringe of Newcastle goes to Hexham.  Wansbeck loses its western areas around Morpeth and gains Blyth from Blyth Valley, and is renamed Blyth & Ashington.  Finally Berwick upon Tweed takes on Morpeth, loses some rural territory to Hexham and is unromantically renamed North Northumberland.

Although it is a Labour seat (North Tyneside) which disappears, the new Cramlington & Killingworth is estimated to have been narrowly Labour in 2019 and as this is the successor to the Tories' narrow gain in Blyth Valley it is the Tories who lose out on 2019 numbers.  That leaves two notionally Tory seats in the area; Hexham probably becomes slightly easier for Labour to win, but there is little difference to how safe Berwick/North Northumberland is.

[Blair]

I'm sure someone can actually work it out but it seems the strange trend of very long names is returning & at risk at sounding like a luddite often with minor names that mere mortals don't know!

I would much rather have one slightly broad or incorrect name that the trend to have a weird mix.

[JimJamUK]

I'm sure someone can actually work it out but it seems the strange trend of very long names is returning & at risk at sounding like a luddite often with minor names that mere mortals don't know!

I would much rather have one slightly broad or incorrect name that the trend to have a weird mix.

Its long been the case that the commission will add more places to constituency names as a means of showing it’s taken concerns onboard, but it’s gotten even more out of hand this review. This has not been helped by the number of constituencies with sub-standard boundaries (some necessary, some not) which leads to larger names being viewed as necessary (again, often as a sop to complainers).

[CumbrianLefty]

The figures are very obviously wrong, as there's no way that a constituency including the entire postindustrial coastal strip other than Maryport would have had a majority only slightly lower than the Workington constituency.

I asked Pete in the other place about the final boundaries, and he gave a Tory majority of 2073.

Which sounds a bit more believable, though maybe still slightly on the high side.

[YL]

Let's cross the border...

Lothian, the Borders, Dumfries & Galloway, Ayrshire and South Lanarkshire

There are only minor changes to the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway constituencies and none at all to the four in Ayrshire.  Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale gains Carstairs from Lanark & Hamilton East, which also gains the parts of Hamilton it doesn't currently contain and is renamed to Hamilton & Clyde Valley.  It also takes Lesmahagow from East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, whose name as a result becomes less of a tongue-twister as East Kilbride & Strathaven.  With its Hamilton West part gone, the by-election seat of Rutherglen & Hamilton West is renamed as Rutherglen and gains the Uddingston area from Lanark & Hamilton East.

East Lothian has the mother of all pointless name changes, becoming Lothian East, and loses Musselburgh to Edinburgh East, whose name reverts to Edinburgh East & Musselburgh.  Edinburgh South makes some gains from East in the area south of Holyrood Park, and some territory is swapped between Edinburgh West and Edinburgh North & Leith.

Linlithgow & East Falkirk loses most of its areas in Falkirk, except for the area around Bo'ness, and gains some areas south of Bathgate from Livingston, and is renamed Bathgate & Linlithgow.

I suspect it is even harder to be confident of partisan effects in Scotland than elsewhere.  However, it's clear that no seats in this area flip, although Electoral Calculus shows a noticeable narrowing of the SNP majority over Labour in Lothian East.

[JimJamUK]

I suspect it is even harder to be confident of partisan effects in Scotland than elsewhere.  However, it's clear that no seats in this area flip, although Electoral Calculus shows a noticeable narrowing of the SNP majority over Labour in Lothian East.

This seems correct, and will be more noticeable if there’s substantial tactical voting. Agree that it’s hard to notice the partisan implications for most of these seats, the multi-party nature of Scottish politics means there aren’t as big differences in support by party in different areas, especially for the SNP.

[YL]

Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire

Glasgow Central is abolished.  Its south-eastern parts, including the Merchant City part of the city centre, the Gorbals, Govanhill and Bridgeton, go to a heavily redrawn Glasgow East; meanwhile the West End goes to Glasgow North and the rest of the area south of the Clyde goes to Glasgow South West.  Glasgow North West is renamed Glasgow West, though its boundary changes are fairly minor, making gains in the Partick/Hyndland area from Glasgow North.  In addition, a small part of the Yoker area goes to West Dunbartonshire, giving that constituency a foothold in the city.  Glasgow North East shifts substantially eastwards, losing Possilpark to Glasgow North but gaining Easterhouse from Glasgow East.

Paisley & Renfrewshire North also gains a foothold in Glasgow city, by taking the Cardonald area from Glasgow South West.  In turn it loses Linwood to Paisley & Renfrewshire South and Bridge of Weir to Inverclyde, which is renamed Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West.  (Isn't Inverclyde western Renfrewshire anyway, historically speaking?)

East Dunbartonshire extends eastwards, gaining a slice of the Campsie Fells north of Kirkintilloch, and is bizarrely renamed Mid Dunbartonshire.  Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East is also bizarrely renamed Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch in spite of still not containing anything like all of Kirkintilloch.  It also gains Chryston from Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, which is more sensibly renamed to Coatbridge & Bellshill.  In fact, Bellshill, unlike Kirkintilloch, is reunited by the changes, with part having previously been in Motherwell & Wishaw, which gains a large eastern extension into South Lanarkshire, formerly in Lanark & Hamilton East, and is renamed Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke.

All constituencies in this area are held by the SNP, so they lose one seat from the abolition of Glasgow Central.  The Electoral Calculus figures do not suggest much changes in terms of how vulnerable any of the seats are from the boundary changes, though the changes from East Dunbartonshire to Mid Dunbartonshire will make it slightly harder for the Lib Dems to win back and they also suggest that the changes to Glasgow North East, the closest Glasgow seat in 2019, make that a little less vulnerable to Labour.

[YL]

Fife, Angus, Stirlingshire and Perthshire

North East Fife gains territory inland of Leven from Glenrothes, which extends west to take Lochgelly and Kelty and is renamed Glenrothes & Mid Fife.  Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath loses those areas and gains Inverkeithing, and for some reason its name order is reversed to become Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy.  Dunfermline & West Fife loses Inverkeithing and extends into eastern Clackmannanshire, being renamed Dunfermline & Dollar, the Dollar area coming from Ochil & South Perthshire, which is dismembered.

The rest of Clackmannanshire goes to a new cross-Forth constituency called Alloa & Grangemouth, which also takes Grangemouth from Linlithgow & East Falkirk and the northern parts of Falkirk town from Falkirk constituency.  (This new seat may seem awkward, but it's a sight better than the previous iteration of the proposals.)  The Strathallan area around Aucherarder and Gleneagles goes to Stirling, renamed Stirling & Strathallan.  The rest of Ochil & South Perthshire, basically Kinross and the Strathearn area west of Perth, joins Perth city in Perth & Kinross-shire, where the city contributes enough electorate that this is the successor to Perth & North Perthshire.

Dundee West loses its areas outside the city boundary and gains the western parts of Dundee East, becoming Dundee Central.  Dundee East then extends up the Angus coast to include Arbroath, being renamed Arbroath & Broughty Ferry.  That leaves the existing Angus constituency covering Montrose, Forfar, Brechin and Kirriemuir, and it extends across to take Highland Perthshire from Perth & North Perthshire; it is renamed Angus & Perthshire Glens.

The changes to North East Fife may flip that seat back to the SNP.  (Electoral Calculus has an SNP majority of 972.)  Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy may become slightly harder for Labour to win, though it remains some of the lowest hanging fruit for them in Scotland, and the new Angus & Perthshire Glens is the most plausible target in this region for the Conservatives.

[YL]

Aberdeenshire and the Highlands and Islands

Ross, Skye & Lochaber is abolished.  Much of its area, including Skye, Fort William town and the Lochalsh, Applecross and Torridon areas, joins the Inverness part of Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey in Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire.  South of Fort William, Glencoe, Kinlochleven, and most of the area west of Loch Linnhe and south of the Mallaig railway goes to Argyll & Bute, renamed Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber.  In the north, Dingwall, the Black Isle and northern Wester Ross around Ullapool go to Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross.

Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey join western Moray, including Elgin, in Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey.  The rest of Moray, including Buckie and Keith, goes into a successor to Banff & Buchan with the cumbersome name Aberdeenshire North & Moray East.  A rural inland part of Banff & Buchan is then added to Gordon, which then loses its Aberdeen City component altogether and is renamed Gordon & Buchan.  Dyce and Bridge of Don go to Aberdeen North, which in turn loses the city centre to Aberdeen South.  There are no changes to West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, nor of course to either of the protected island seats, Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Orkney & Shetland.

It appears to be the Lib Dems who notionally lose out from the abolished seat here as the areas added to Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross flip that seat to the SNP.  The eastern parts of this area are an SNP/Conservative battleground.  Adding the Highland areas may narrowly flip Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey to the SNP (Electoral Calculus gives an SNP majority of 644), but moving inland Buchan flips Gordon & Buchan to the Tories while reducing their majority in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East.

[Harry Hayfield]

The official notional election results will be published by Professors Thrasher (Sky News) and Rallings (ITN) sometime later this year, my guess is certainly before the end of the year, but thanks to the House of Commons publishing a similarity index, a friend of mine has sent me the following unoffical calculations

Unoffical Notional Electrion 2019
Conservatives 371 seats
Labour 200 seats
Scottish National Party 48 seats
Liberal Democrats 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 2 seats
Green Party 1 seat
Speaker 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, SDLP 2, Alliance 1)
Conservative majority of 94 / 100 when allowing for Sinn Fein and Speaker(

[EastAnglianLefty]

The figures are very obviously wrong, as there's no way that a constituency including the entire postindustrial coastal strip other than Maryport would have had a majority only slightly lower than the Workington constituency.

I asked Pete in the other place about the final boundaries, and he gave a Tory majority of 2073.

Which sounds a bit more believable, though maybe still slightly on the high side.

I note that Labour held up well in Cockermouth Keswick in the Allerdale local elections in 2019, whereas they did substantially less well in Workington. Given that that probably wasn't replicated in the general election, it's easy to see how that might affect notionals.

[YL]

Gwent and eastern Glamorgan

There are major changes throughout Wales because of the lower quota used here in the past meaning that constituencies were smaller than average and so Wales loses 8 of its 40 constituencies.

Newport West is abolished, with its remnants merged with the bulk of Islwyn to form a straggly Newport West & Islwyn, which contains some western parts of Newport and stretches up the Ebbw valley to Newbridge and Blackwood.  Most of the Sirhowy Valley part of Islwyn goes to Caerphilly, and Newport city centre and Caerleon go to Newport East, which in turn donates Magor and Caldicot to Monmouth, which is renamed Monmouthshire.

Blaenau Gwent takes the upper Rhymney valley from Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney together with smaller areas lower down the valley from Islwyn and Caerphilly, and is renamed Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney.  Merthyr then joins with the upper Cynon Valley, another abolished seat, to form Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare, with the lower Cynon Valley going to Pontypridd.

In Cardiff, Cardiff Central takes the part of the city east of the Rhymney from Cardiff South & Penarth, with much of the city centre going the other way, and is renamed Cardiff East.  Cardiff South & Penarth also gains Dinas Powis from Vale of Glamorgan, and Cardiff North and Cardiff West both extend outside the city boundary to take Taff's Well and Pont-y-clun respectively, both from Pontypridd, which takes the Llanharan area from abolished Ogmore.  Of the rest of Ogmore, the Ogŵr and Garw valleys join Rhondda in Rhondda & Ogmore, the northern side of Bridgend town goes to Bridgend, and the rest goes to the seat newly called Aberafan Maesteg (see next post).

Labour lose out from the abolitions of Newport West, Cynon Valley and Ogmore.  At least according to the Electoral Calculus figures, Bridgend remains narrowly Tory and Vale of Glamorgan becomes closer but also remains Tory, while Monmouthshire is further down the target list but becomes a little easier for Labour to win.

[somerandomth]

The official notional election results will be published by Professors Thrasher (Sky News) and Rallings (ITN) sometime later this year, my guess is certainly before the end of the year, but thanks to the House of Commons publishing a similarity index, a friend of mine has sent me the following unoffical calculations

Unoffical Notional Electrion 2019
Conservatives 371 seats
Labour 200 seats
Scottish National Party 48 seats
Liberal Democrats 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 2 seats
Green Party 1 seat
Speaker 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, SDLP 2, Alliance 1)
Conservative majority of 94 / 100 when allowing for Sinn Fein and Speaker(

As expected, but good to get confirmation from experts that these are roughly the figures we're heading towards for notionals

[DL]

The official notional election results will be published by Professors Thrasher (Sky News) and Rallings (ITN) sometime later this year, my guess is certainly before the end of the year, but thanks to the House of Commons publishing a similarity index, a friend of mine has sent me the following unoffical calculations

Unoffical Notional Electrion 2019
Conservatives 371 seats
Labour 200 seats
Scottish National Party 48 seats
Liberal Democrats 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 2 seats
Green Party 1 seat
Speaker 1 seat
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, SDLP 2, Alliance 1)
Conservative majority of 94 / 100 when allowing for Sinn Fein and Speaker(

It would be helpful to see plusses and minusses with this chart to show how many seats each party notionally gains or loses compared to 2019. Of course the swing in the next UK election is likely to be so massive that all of this will be swept away anyways.

[afleitch]

Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire

Glasgow Central is abolished.  Its south-eastern parts, including the Merchant City part of the city centre, the Gorbals, Govanhill and Bridgeton, go to a heavily redrawn Glasgow East; meanwhile the West End goes to Glasgow North and the rest of the area south of the Clyde goes to Glasgow South West.  Glasgow North West is renamed Glasgow West, though its boundary changes are fairly minor, making gains in the Partick/Hyndland area from Glasgow North.  In addition, a small part of the Yoker area goes to West Dunbartonshire, giving that constituency a foothold in the city.  Glasgow North East shifts substantially eastwards, losing Possilpark to Glasgow North but gaining Easterhouse from Glasgow East.

Paisley & Renfrewshire North also gains a foothold in Glasgow city, by taking the Cardonald area from Glasgow South West.  In turn it loses Linwood to Paisley & Renfrewshire South and Bridge of Weir to Inverclyde, which is renamed Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West.  (Isn't Inverclyde western Renfrewshire anyway, historically speaking?)

East Dunbartonshire extends eastwards, gaining a slice of the Campsie Fells north of Kirkintilloch, and is bizarrely renamed Mid Dunbartonshire.  Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East is also bizarrely renamed Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch in spite of still not containing anything like all of Kirkintilloch.  It also gains Chryston from Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, which is more sensibly renamed to Coatbridge & Bellshill.  In fact, Bellshill, unlike Kirkintilloch, is reunited by the changes, with part having previously been in Motherwell & Wishaw, which gains a large eastern extension into South Lanarkshire, formerly in Lanark & Hamilton East, and is renamed Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke.

All constituencies in this area are held by the SNP, so they lose one seat from the abolition of Glasgow Central.  The Electoral Calculus figures do not suggest much changes in terms of how vulnerable any of the seats are from the boundary changes, though the changes from East Dunbartonshire to Mid Dunbartonshire will make it slightly harder for the Lib Dems to win back and they also suggest that the changes to Glasgow North East, the closest Glasgow seat in 2019, make that a little less vulnerable to Labour.

The Glasgow North East and Glasgow East configuration was based, solely, on a suggestion I made which I'm a bit happy about

The intention was a boundary running north to south, but transport links (particularly public transport) run east/west as do the Holyrood seats.

[YL]

West Glamorgan, West Wales and southern Powys

Swansea East is split in two.  The parts of the city west of the Tawe go to Swansea West, which in turn loses some areas on the western edge of the built-up area to Gower.  The rest joins the bulk of the existing Neath constituency to form Neath & Swansea East.  A small area east of Neath town goes to Aberavon, which also gains the Maesteg area from Ogmore and Pyle from Bridgend and has its name changed to Aberafan Maesteg.  Then most of the part of Neath in the Swansea Valley is added to Brecon & Radnor, renamed Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe.

Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire is carved up along the county boundary.  The south Pembrokeshire parts join the largest part of Preseli Pembrokeshire in Mid & South Pembrokeshire, but the actual Preseli area joins Ceredigion in Ceredigion Preseli.  Meanwhile the Carmarthenshire parts of Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire join most of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in Caerfyrddin (this is the Welsh form of Carmarthen) which sheds some territory to Llanelli.

The disappearance of Swansea East costs Labour another seat.  The addition of the Swansea valley to Brecon & Radnor may make Labour competitive again here forty years after they ceased to be after a previous boundary change, or it may give the Lib Dems a new source of tactical votes.  The abolition of Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire appears to cost the Tories a seat, but territory from it appears to flip Caerfyrddin from Plaid to them, though I suspect this is one of those flips which will never be more than notional.  Similarly the extension of Ceredigion into relatively Welsh-speaking northern Pembrokeshire probably does Plaid less harm than it looks on paper, though the Electoral Calculus numbers show them holding on.

[YL]

North Wales

Arfon is abolished.  The south-western part, including Caernarfon, goes to Dwyfor Meirionnydd, and the rest, including Bangor, goes to a considerably expanded Aberconwy, which is renamed Bangor Aberconwy and also takes a swathe of rural inland territory east of Snowdonia.  That area comes from Clwyd West, which is compensated with Denbigh, St Asaph and Rhyl (if gaining Rhyl can be seen as compensation) from the abolished Vale of Clwyd and renamed Clwyd North.

The eastern part of Vale of Clwyd, including Prestatyn, goes to a considerably expanded Delyn, which gains a more meaningful name, Clwyd East, and also takes the upper Clwyd valley, including Rhuthun, from Clwyd West and extends as far south as Llangollen, but loses Flint to Alyn & Deeside.  Llangollen comes from our final abolished seat, Clwyd South; of the rest of this the Maelor Saesneg area (the very anglicised area jutting out between Shropshire and Cheshire) goes to Wrexham, the Corwen area, historically part of Meirionnydd, goes to Dwyfor Meirionnydd, while the rest, including Ruabon and Chirk, goes to the infamous cross-Berwyn constituency Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr, which also includes all of the existing Montgomeryshire.

The abolished constituencies here are one Plaid seat (Arfon) and two marginal Conservative seats (Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South).  The new Bangor Aberconwy must be only marginally Tory if it is Tory at all; it would not surprise me if some notionals show it as Labour.  (Electoral Calculus has the Tories ahead by 151.)  Clwyd North and Clwyd East are both marginally Tory, while Wrexham moves a little in their direction.  The "Glyndŵr" area may provide enough Labour votes to make them competitive in Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr, but they may need to get the votes of people in Montgomeryshire who have previously voted tactically for the Lib Dems.

[YL]

And finally...

Northern Ireland

There is only one new name here.  Belfast South extends further into County Down, gaining the small town of Saintfield from Strangford and Drumbo from Lagan Valley and being renamed Belfast South & Mid Down, though really most of what might be considered "Mid Down" is still in other constituencies.  It loses a couple of areas in east Belfast to Belfast East, which sheds one ward on the city boundary to North Down.

Strangford extends a little bit to the south at the expense of South Down; one conseqence of this is that it contains the small village of Strangford for the first time.

The Shankill Road area is finally reunited in Belfast West, with Belfast North gaining a small area further west.  East Antrim makes substantial gains from North Antrim east of Ballymena, but its northern end around Cushendun goes the other way.  Lagan Valley gains a Lough Neagh shoreline from Upper Bann, while west of the Bann there are really only very minor adjustments: Fermanagh & South Tyrone loses some areas immediately east of Dungannon to Mid Ulster while gaining a small area north-west of Armagh from Newry & Armagh.  Meanwhile Foyle is slightly more tightly drawn around Derry City, losing small areas to West Tyrone and East Londonderry.

At least in Westminster elections partisan effects are extremely limited.  (Assembly ones may be a different matter.)  The extension of Belfast South will reduce the SDLP majority but in anything like a 2019 context they would still have won it.  Belfast East may become very slightly easier for Alliance if SDLP votes from the area transferred from Belfast South shift to them.  Fermanagh & South Tyrone was extremely close in 2019, but eyeballing a religion map suggests that the changes slightly help Sinn Féin.