UK parliamentary boundary review

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Somerset and the Bristol urban area: partisan effects

The headline is that notionally Labour gain the extra seat here, as they would have won all five Bristol seats, but the details have plus and minus points for all parties.  There are also quite a few long shots for Labour; in a real landslide it's possible to imagine them winning as many as 11 of the 16 seats in this area, but in a more modest win 6 would be more likely.

The new Taunton & Wellington, more concentrated around the towns, is probably better for the Lib Dems than the old Taunton Deane.  The new Bridgwater might be a long shot for Labour if they can find some votes in Highbridge and Burnham, but the new Wells & the Mendip Hills looks harder for the Lib Dems than the existing Wells.  The contraction of North Somerset and Weston-super-Mare probably makes these long shot Labour targets slightly easier, but they are still more long shots than genuine marginals.

Glastonbury & Somerton looks politically similar to the existing Somerton & Frome, and the Lib Dem candidate in the by-election lives there; if she wins as most seem to be assuming, she will probably stand there.  The new Frome & East Somerset has more of a hint of a Labour base, containing what was the Somerset coalfield, and might be another Labour long shot, or indeed a seat which the Tories have a chance of holding on a low share because of a split opposition vote.  Bath has become so Lib Dem that the minor extension to its boundaries can have little effect.

The new North East Somerset & Hanham takes the more Tory parts of Kingswood, and as such looks like a fairly safe Tory seat, though it can be considered another Labour long shot (and one which Labour would no doubt very much enjoy winning if they did).  The new Bristol North East looks essentially safe Labour.  Bristol Central has an enormous notional Labour majority, but its demographics and local election results make it look like one of the most likely seats in the country for a serious Green challenge.  Bristol North West, Tory as recently as 2015 but comfortably Labour since then, is little changed, but the changes to Filton & Bradley Stoke move it a little further into the Conservative column.

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Gloucestershire and north Wiltshire

Gloucester and Cheltenham constituencies each shed a ward to Tewkesbury.  Slightly awkwardly, Tewkesbury in turn then loses the area between Cheltenham and Gloucester, including Churchdown and Brockworth (the world centre for running down absurdly steep hills after cheese) to a new North Cotswolds constituency, which is one of the results of splitting the existing The Cotswolds; it also contains the northern part of that constituency (Stow on the Wold, Moreton in Marsh and so on) and a strip in the north of the existing oversized Stroud constituency, including Painswick.  Stroud also gains the town of Wotton-under-Edge from The Cotswolds.

The rest of The Cotswolds, including Cirencester, forms a cross-county constituency with much of the existing North Wiltshire, including Cricklade and Malmesbury; this gets the name South Cotswolds.

I didn't mention Thornbury & Yate in my Bristol area post, but it is little changed, and there are no changes to Forest of Dean except what looks like a minor adjustment to better follow the course of the Severn.

The changes to Cheltenham and Gloucester probably slightly help the Lib Dems and Labour respectively, although Labour's local weaknesses in Gloucester make it hard to be sure.  Labour are also helped slightly in Stroud, where none of the removed areas are among the more Labour-inclined parts of the existing constituency.  Both Cotswolds seats look basically safe Tory, though the Lib Dems do have local strength here and may fancy a go.  Meanwhile the Lib Dems' chances of winning back Thornbury & Yate are little changed.

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Wiltshire and Dorset

North Swindon and South Swindon have their names "standardised" to Swindon North and Swindon South.  In addition, South loses most of its rural territory and becomes a largely urban constituency, also gaining a couple of urban areas in the town from North.

There are major changes to Chippenham.  It loses the towns of Melksham and Bradford upon Avon, and gains a swathe of more rural territory to the east, including Royal Wootton Bassett, from the carved up North Wiltshire (the rest of which goes to South Cotswolds; see the previous post).  Melksham and Bradford upon Avon go to a new constituency, Melksham & Devizes, which also takes Devizes town and its immediate hinterland from Devizes constituency, which without its eponymous town is renamed East Wiltshire, and also stretches north to take the more rural southern parts of South Swindon and south to take Amesbury from Salisbury.

Without Amesbury, Salisbury stretches a bit further west, taking territory from South West Wiltshire, which becomes a little more concentrated around the towns of Trowbridge, Westbury and Warminster.

There are relatively few changes to the eight Dorset (including BCP) constituencies; the Commission did not choose to respect the boundary between the Dorset and BCP unitaries.  The undersized Mid Dorset & North Poole takes on some territory from both North Dorset and South Dorset; otherwise just a few small areas move constituency.

Swindon South remains the easier of the two Swindon constituencies for Labour, and indeed becomes a little easier, while North becomes slightly harder.  The changes to Chippenham look unhelpful for the Lib Dems' chances of winning that seat back, and in fact it's not clear which of the revised Chippenham and the new Melksham & Devizes is a more plausible target.  In the long shot for Labour category, South West Wiltshire is probably slightly easier to win, but this is not saying much.

In Dorset, Mid Dorset & North Poole may become slightly harder for the Lib Dems to win again, but it was a long way off anyway.  The two Bournemouth seats are Labour's most plausible targets here and are both little changed; South Dorset voted Labour in 2001 and 2005, and the changes there will make little difference to the chances of it doing so again, which at least based on 2019 look slim.

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Hampshire and the Isle of Wight (and a bit of Surrey)

The new rules required the Isle of Wight constituency to be split into two.  The results are Isle of Wight East, including Ryde, Shanklin and Ventnor, and Isle of Wight West, including Newport and Cowes.

In mainland Hampshire, there are several constituencies which are unchanged or nearly so, but the most major changes concern the existing Meon Valley and Fareham constituencies and some neighbouring areas.  A new Hamble Valley constituency takes the western part of Fareham, around Titchfield, the southern area of Eastleigh, including the suburban sprawl of Hedge End, and a less populated area from Meon Valley.  The rest of Fareham, including the eponymous town, joins the parts of Havant district in Meon Valley to form Fareham & Waterlooville.  The Winchester district of Meon Valley goes to Winchester, which in turn donates Chandler's Ford to Eastleigh.

Romsey & Southampton North extends further north, closer to Andover.  There is some re-arrangement in the Basingstoke area, with the Basingstoke constituency now stretching west from the town rather than east, with the previous eastern extension going to North East Hampshire.

East Hampshire extends south, taking on the final piece of Meon Valley, and north-west, coming quite close to Basingstoke, but loses the area around Bordon to a new cross county constituency, Farnham & Bordon, also containing the Surrey towns of Farnham and Haslemere, currently in South West Surrey.

In terms of partisan effects, both Isle of Wight constituencies are comfortably notionally Tory, and it's not clear whether there's much difference between them.  The re-arrangement in the Fareham area has already caused the Tories selection trouble, although both new seats look essentially safe for them.  Eastleigh looks a more plausible Lib Dem target again; Winchester, on the other hand, becomes a bit safer for the Tories, but still looks vulnerable to the Lib Dems.  Romsey & Southampton North also looks a bit safer for the Tories, and was already considerably less likely to go yellow again than Winchester.  The new Farnham & Bordon is also a potential Lib Dem target seat, especially as the Surrey component is an area where the Tories have been doing badly in recent years, but is certainly more challenging than Winchester and probably also than Eastleigh.

Basingstoke remains a plausible Labour target in a good year, and perhaps becomes very slightly easier for them.  Two traditional marginals, Portsmouth North and Southampton Itchen, are both unchanged.

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Surrey

The existing South West Surrey is split, with part going to the new Farnham & Bordon (see Hampshire), and the rest becoming part of a new Godalming & Ash constituency, also containing Ash from Surrey Heath and southern parts of Guildford outside the town.  It also takes a small part of the existing Mole Valley, which generally shifts south-east and is renamed Dorking & Horley.

East Surrey, Reigate and Epsom & Ewell are all recognisable, but a few areas are moved between them.  Esher & Walton loses Cobham and Stoke D'Abernon to Runnymede & Weybridge, which in turn loses Englefield Green and Virginia Water (see Berkshire).  Woking contracts to just the town, with the rest going to Surrey Heath, and Guildford also becomes more concentrated around the town.

The Lib Dems will no doubt have designs on several of these constituencies.  Esher & Walton, Guildford and Woking look the most likely, and in all cases probably become slightly easier.  Godalming & Ash and Dorking & Horley would be the next tier of targets if they're feeling ambitious.

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Berkshire

Windsor becomes a cross-county constituency (but with no change of name) by taking Englefield Green (including the campus of Royal Holloway, University of London) and Virginia Water in Surrey from Runnymede & Weybridge.  It also takes a little bit more of Slough, which was oversized, and in turn loses its entire Bracknell Forest component, mostly to Maidenhead, though a small part on the edge of the Bracknell urban area goes to Bracknell.

Bracknell and Maidenhead in turn lose their Wokingham borough components to the Wokingham constituency, which is heavily redrawn: it loses the Reading suburb of Earley to a new constituency called Earley & Woodley, which also takes a couple of southern wards of Reading proper and Woodley, another Reading suburb previously split between Maidenhead and Reading East, which shifts west and is renamed Reading Central.  That leaves Reading West with only the three Tilehurst wards within Reading proper, so it extends west into more rural territory, currently in Newbury, and is given the hideous new name of Reading West & Mid Berkshire.

Reading East is one of those constituencies which have trended dramatically to Labour in recent years, voting Tory in 2015 but being a Labour gain in 2017 and an easy hold in 2019, and the changes to the new Reading Central will make it safer.  The change from Reading West to the new Reading West & Mid Berkshire makes this much safer for the Tories, while the new Earley & Woodley is certainly notionally Tory but replaces Reading West as the obvious Labour target in the area.

Wokingham probably becomes an easier Tory hold, while Newbury goes the other way and becomes a more plausible Lib Dem target again.  The other seats are probably so safe that the changes make little practical difference, though on the current extreme polling figures Electoral Calculus is forecasting Labour gains in the new Bracknell and Windsor (!) seats, with the latter being helped by Englefield Green and the extra bit of Slough.

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Sussex

The major change here is the creation of a new East Grinstead & Uckfield constituency crossing the border between East Sussex and West Sussex, taking East Grinstead from Mid Sussex and Uckfield from Wealden, together with smaller areas from Horsham and Lewes.

With Uckfield removed, Wealden gains the Heathfield area from Bexhill & Battle and is renamed Sussex Weald.  Bexhill & Battle in turn gains some of Hastings & Rye's rural territory.

Eastbourne becomes coterminous with its borough, with the northern fringe going to Lewes.  There are only very minor changes to the Brighton & Hove constituencies, but the increasing tendency for the Boundary Commissions to listen to people complaining about their area not being represented in the name of their constituency sees Hove renamed Hove & Portslade and Brighton Kemptown renamed Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven.

With East Grinstead gone, Mid Sussex becomes a much more coherent looking constituency based on Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill.  Worthing West loses Rustington to Bognor Regis & Littlehampton and gains more inland areas north of Worthing town from Arundel & South Downs, which shifts west, taking about half the territory (but only about a quarter of the electorate) of Chichester, which becomes more concentrated around the city.

The new East Grinstead & Uckfield and Sussex Weald both look safe for the Conservatives.  The contraction of Hastings & Rye makes this slightly easier for Labour, while Eastbourne becomes a little easier to win back for the Lib Dems and Lewes perhaps slightly harder but still very vulnerable.  The changes to Worthing West make little difference to Labour's chances of taking it; East Worthing & Shoreham, which is unchanged, remains the easier of the two Worthing seats.  The new Mid Sussex, being more based on the towns, may not be that safe for the Tories, and it's noticeable that its sitting MP Mims Davies has chosen to follow the minority of her constituency to East Grinstead & Uckfield.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mims Davies chicken running a second time, you say

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mims Davies chicken running a second time, you say

Jesus Christ. Is this a record?

[Blair]

An interesting impact of the polls is how little discussion there has been about the partisan nature of the changes; I remember when these changes and voter ID were seen as the things that would help them keep their majority!

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Kent

As Sussex gets a Sussex Weald, Kent gets a Weald of Kent, a new seat which covers a lot of mostly rural territory in the south of the county between Tunbridge Wells and Ashford.  The largest single part of it comes from the existing Ashford constituency, including the town of Tenterden; without it Ashford gains some rural territory to the east of the town from Folkestone & Hythe.

Another large part of Weald of Kent comes from Maidstone & the Weald, and Maidstone now is in a much more compact constituency called Maidstone & Malling, taking East and West Malling from Tonbridge & Malling, whose name thus becomes simply Tonbridge.

In the east of the county, the Thanet seats are completetly reorganised.  South Thanet loses Sandwich and gains the rest of Margate and is renamed East Thanet, while North Thanet takes Sandwich and is renamed Herne Bay & Sandwich, also gaining some territory from Canterbury.

There are only minor changes to the remaining constituencies, including the Medway area ones, though Chatham & Aylesford becomes a bit more urban, by gaining territory from Rochester & Strood.

As for partisan effects, the new Weald of Kent seat looks monstrously Tory.  Its creation and the knock-on effects do turn Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe into Labour long shots, though probably no more than that.  Elsewhere, the new East Thanet looks significantly easier for Labour than the old South; the flip side of that is that Herne Bay & Sandwich is safer for the Tories than the old North Thanet (not that Labour won that even in 1997).  Canterbury becomes slightly safer for Labour.  The changes to Rochester & Strood make that a little easier for Labour to win, but it's still a long way off.

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Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire

Oxfordshire's new constituency is Bicester & Woodstock, taking Bicester from Banbury, the Woodstock and Eynsham areas from Witney and Kidlington from Oxford West & Abingdon.  Knock-on effects from its creation see the Chipping Norton area move from Witney to Banbury, and Witney cross the Thames into historic Berkshire to take Faringdon and Kingston Bagpuize from Wantage, which is renamed Didcot & Wantage.  Henley is renamed Henley & Thame, but is relatively little changed, losing a small area in the north to the new seat.  Finally, Oxford West & Abingdon regains Oxford city centre from Oxford East.

In Buckinghamshire, Buckingham is effectively split.  The town itself and some other northern areas join the Bletchley area of Milton Keynes in Buckingham & Bletchley, while areas further south join the rural component of the existing Aylesbury and the Great Missenden area from Chesham & Amersham in a sprawling Mid Buckinghamshire.  Aylesbury also takes an area from Buckingham, the Ivinghoe area near the border with Bedfordshire.  Chesham & Amersham gains Gerrards Cross from Beaconsfield and Hazlemere from Wycombe.

In Milton Keynes, Milton Keynes South loses Bletchley above and gains the city centre (it is finally officially a city) and is renamed Milton Keynes Central, but loses Stony Stratford to Milton Keynes North.

At local level, Oxfordshire has become a disaster area for the Conservatives, and the changes will add to Lib Dem ambitions, particularly focussing on Didcot & Wantage and Henley & Thame.  Banbury actually becomes slightly easier for Labour to win, but the new Bicester & Woodstock the Tories may benefit from it not being obvious who might challenge them.  The changes to Oxford West & Abingdon make it even less likely that the Tories would win it back; the loss of Oxford city centre in 2010 was decisive in the Tory gain that year.

In Buckinghamshire, Mid Buckinghamshire is safe Tory, but their tenure in Wycombe, which has trended sharply Labour in recent years, now looks more or less doomed, and the reduction of Aylesbury's rural component may make that in reach for Labour.  There is an interesting question as to whether the changes to Chesham & Amersham make it easier or harder for the Lib Dems to hold this by-election gain; that the losses are more rural than the gains might suggest "easier", but the extent of the changes means there will be many voters who didn't vote in the by-election, and Gerrards Cross is a pretty Tory sort of place.

Milton Keynes Central shifts towards Labour, while their task in Milton Keynes North becomes slightly, but not significantly, harder.  The new Buckingham & Bletchley is also interesting, and some notional calculations suggest it is winnable for Labour in a good year, but Buckingham and the rural component make it a challenge.

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Kentish London
i.e. the boroughs of Bexley, Bromley, Greenwich and Lewisham

Bromley & Chislehurst loses the Chislehurst area in its north, and in compensation extends south, taking Hayes from Beckenham and Biggin Hill, probably the town in Greater London most separate from the main London urban area, becoming Bromley & Biggin Hill.  With Hayes lost, Beckenham regains Penge and is renamed Beckenham & Penge.  Without Penge, Lewisham West & Penge extends across another border, taking three wards of Southwark and the rather cumbersome name of Lewisham West & East Dulwich.  It also loses one ward to Lewisham East, which loses its northern end in Blackheath to Lewisham Deptford which for some reason is renamed to Lewisham North.

Eltham takes on Chislehurst and becomes Eltham & Chislehurst.  It loses Shooters Hill to Erith & Thamesmead, which also takes Glyndon ward from Greenwich & Woolwich and loses some territory to Bexleyheath & Crayford, which in turn loses some territory in the Welling area to Old Bexley & Sidcup.

The new Eltham & Chislehurst shifts towards the Tories and would have voted for them in 2019.  In the other direction, Bob Stewart's substantial majority in Beckenham is almost wiped out by the change to Beckenham & Penge and Erith & Thamesmead becomes safer for Labour.  The Lewisham seats and Greenwich & Woolwich have mountainous Labour majorities even in 2019 and so the changes there have no significant partisan effect.  Bromley & Biggin Hill is harder to win for Labour than Bromley & Chislehurst and is very much a long shot, while the changes in Bexley make little difference; these seats are, again, at best very long shots for Labour.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Kent

As Sussex gets a Sussex Weald, Kent gets a Weald of Kent, a new seat which covers a lot of mostly rural territory in the south of the county between Tunbridge Wells and Ashford.  The largest single part of it comes from the existing Ashford constituency, including the town of Tenterden; without it Ashford gains some rural territory to the east of the town from Folkestone & Hythe.

Another large part of Weald of Kent comes from Maidstone & the Weald, and Maidstone now is in a much more compact constituency called Maidstone & Malling, taking East and West Malling from Tonbridge & Malling, whose name thus becomes simply Tonbridge.

In the east of the county, the Thanet seats are completetly reorganised.  South Thanet loses Sandwich and gains the rest of Margate and is renamed East Thanet, while North Thanet takes Sandwich and is renamed Herne Bay & Sandwich, also gaining some territory from Canterbury.

There are only minor changes to the remaining constituencies, including the Medway area ones, though Chatham & Aylesford becomes a bit more urban, by gaining territory from Rochester & Strood.

As for partisan effects, the new Weald of Kent seat looks monstrously Tory.  Its creation and the knock-on effects do turn Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe into Labour long shots, though probably no more than that.  Elsewhere, the new East Thanet looks significantly easier for Labour than the old South; the flip side of that is that Herne Bay & Sandwich is safer for the Tories than the old North Thanet (not that Labour won that even in 1997).  Canterbury becomes slightly safer for Labour.  The changes to Rochester & Strood make that a little easier for Labour to win, but it's still a long way off.

I'm mildly surprised that Labour didn't try to get a rearrangement of the seats round Medway, by recreating the old Rochester & Chatham and putting Aylesford with Strood, which would have given them a seat in Medway that they ought to win in an even year.

[CumbrianLefty]

An interesting impact of the polls is how little discussion there has been about the partisan nature of the changes; I remember when these changes and voter ID were seen as the things that would help them keep their majority!

Though having said this, boundary reviews have tended to be less of a boost for the Tories than many often imagine they might be. People may be influenced by the pre-1983 changes, though they were unusual in that a *lot* of under-sized Labour seats were around by that time - in other words those seats were unusual in how much they benefited the blue team, not the norm.

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Kent

As Sussex gets a Sussex Weald, Kent gets a Weald of Kent, a new seat which covers a lot of mostly rural territory in the south of the county between Tunbridge Wells and Ashford.  The largest single part of it comes from the existing Ashford constituency, including the town of Tenterden; without it Ashford gains some rural territory to the east of the town from Folkestone & Hythe.

Another large part of Weald of Kent comes from Maidstone & the Weald, and Maidstone now is in a much more compact constituency called Maidstone & Malling, taking East and West Malling from Tonbridge & Malling, whose name thus becomes simply Tonbridge.

In the east of the county, the Thanet seats are completetly reorganised.  South Thanet loses Sandwich and gains the rest of Margate and is renamed East Thanet, while North Thanet takes Sandwich and is renamed Herne Bay & Sandwich, also gaining some territory from Canterbury.

There are only minor changes to the remaining constituencies, including the Medway area ones, though Chatham & Aylesford becomes a bit more urban, by gaining territory from Rochester & Strood.

As for partisan effects, the new Weald of Kent seat looks monstrously Tory.  Its creation and the knock-on effects do turn Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe into Labour long shots, though probably no more than that.  Elsewhere, the new East Thanet looks significantly easier for Labour than the old South; the flip side of that is that Herne Bay & Sandwich is safer for the Tories than the old North Thanet (not that Labour won that even in 1997).  Canterbury becomes slightly safer for Labour.  The changes to Rochester & Strood make that a little easier for Labour to win, but it's still a long way off.

I'm mildly surprised that Labour didn't try to get a rearrangement of the seats round Medway, by recreating the old Rochester & Chatham and putting Aylesford with Strood, which would have given them a seat in Medway that they ought to win in an even year.

Possibly they felt it wouldn't have had a chance, given "minimum change" criteria, and so wasn't worth proposing?

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South and South-West London
i.e. the boroughs of Southwark, Lambeth, Croydon, Wandsworth, Sutton, Kingston upon Thames and Richmond upon Thames

An extra constituency is created in South London by splitting Streatham into two.  The northern part joins with parts of Vauxhall to form Clapham & Brixton Hill, while the southern part crosses the border into Croydon to form Streatham & Croydon North.  With its southern part lost, Vauxhall adds the Southwark wards of Newington and Camberwell Green and becomes Vauxhall & Camberwell Green, while Camberwell & Peckham takes territory from the oversized Bermondsey & Old Southwark and loses some southern territory as well as Camberwell Green, with its name simplified to Peckham.  That southern territory, along with eastern parts of Dulwich & West Norwood, goes into Lewisham West & East Dulwich (see Kentish London post).

In Croydon, Croydon North, with its northern end lost to the new seat, becomes Croydon West, while Croydon South and Croydon Central exchange some territory, with the latter renamed Croydon East.  In Merton, Mitcham & Morden gains Cannon Hill from Wimbledon, which extends into Kingston, taking the Old Malden area from Kingston & Surbiton, which in turn takes Coombe Vale from Richmond Park.  Staying in Richmond, one ward is transferred from Twickenham to Brentford & Isleworth.

In Wandsworth, Fairfield ward (on the old boundaries, not the current ones) is transferred from Battersea to Putney, while there are no significant changes to the two Sutton constituencies.

Lambeth is another area of enormous Labour majorities, so the new Clapham & Brixton Hill and Streatham & Croydon North are both safe for them.  The knock-on effects do make Croydon East a little more marginal than the existing Central.  Elsewhere the main partisan effect seems to be that the Lib Dems will find it easier to paint themselves as the main challenger to the Tories in Wimbledon.

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Central and West London
i.e. the City and the boroughs of Westminster, Brent, Kensington & Chelsea, Hammersmith & Fulham, Ealing, Hounslow and Hillingdon

Westminster North is carved up: the Regent's Park area goes to Cities of London & Westminster, the Bayswater area joins Kensington, renamed Kensington & Bayswater, and the rest joins much of the Brent part of Hampstead & Kilburn and parts of Brent Central to become a new constituency called Queen's Park & Maida Vale.  In Brent, Brent Central extends further north at the expense of Brent North, which shifts south in turn, and loses Queensbury ward to Harrow East; the seats are renamed Brent East and Brent West respectively.

Chelsea & Fulham extends a little further into Hammersmith & Fulham, taking territory from Hammersmith, which gains Chiswick from Brentford & Isleworth and is re-named Hammersmith & Chiswick.  The Old Oak area in the north of Hammersmith goes to Ealing Central & Acton, which in turn loses one ward to Ealing Southall.  Without Chiswick, Brentford & Isleworth gains one Richmond ward north of the river from Twickenham and Heston East from Feltham & Heston, which is otherwise unchanged.

Uxbridge & South Ruislip gains Ickenham from Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, with a small area north of South Ruislip going the other way.

Again, many seats in this area have such big Labour majorities even in 2019 that the changes can have little real effect.  Westminster North used to be thought of as marginal, but the new Queen's Park & Maida Vale is rock solid.  The addition of Bayswater to Kensington only has a small effect on this very marginal (in both 2017 and 2019) seat; Electoral Calculus thinks it moves slightly to the Tories.  Cities of London & Westminster certainly does move further to the Tories, but Chelsea & Fulham becomes slightly more winnable for Labour.  Finally, if Labour do win Uxbridge & South Ruislip in the by-election it becomes slightly harder to hold, and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner is still a very long shot, but becomes slightly less of one.

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North London
i.e. the boroughs of Islington, Camden, Hackney, Haringey, Enfield, Barnet and Harrow

Hampstead & Kilburn loses its Brent component (see Central and West London) and gains the northern end of Holborn & St Pancras and Highgate ward of Haringey to revive Hampstead & Highgate.  Islington South & Finsbury gains De Beauvoir ward in Hackney from Hackney South & Shoreditch, which exchanges areas with Hackney North & Stoke Newington, which then loses a couple of wards to Tottenham.

Hornsey & Wood Green loses Wood Green and instead extends into Barnet, becoming Hornsey & Friern Barnet; it also takes Harringay ward from Tottenham.  Wood Green then joins the bulk of Enfield Southgate in a strangely shaped constituency called Southgate & Wood Green.  Most of the rest of Enfield Southgate is added to Edmonton, which is renamed Edmonton & Winchmore Hill.  Chipping Barnet loses Friern Barnet but gains Edgwarebury from Hendon.  In Harrow, the changes are not major, but Wealdstone is united in Harrow West and Harrow East gains Queensbury ward from Brent North.

The Camden, Islington, Hackney and Haringey seats are all pretty much rock solid for Labour at least on 2019 numbers, so there the changes here have little partisan effect, though it's possible to imagine that Hampstead & Highgate might be more vulnerable in a future election where Labour's position among urban professionals is weaker.  The change from Enfield Southgate to Southgate & Wood Green takes the Tories out of contention; Edmonton & Winchmore Hill on the other hand is not as safe as Edmonton was but it was comfortably Labour even in 2019.  In Barnet Chipping Barnet becomes safer for the Tories while Hendon becomes more marginal, while the minor changes in Harrow have little partisan effect.

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East London
i.e. the boroughs of Tower Hamlets, Newham, Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Barking & Dagenham and Havering

A new constituency is created spanning the Tower Hamlets/Newham border, called Stratford & Bow.  It takes Bow from Bethnal Green & Bow, which is renamed Bethnal Green & Stepney, and Stratford from West Ham, which takes the southern end of East Ham and is renamed West Ham & Beckton.  Poplar & Limehouse loses Shadwell to Bethnal Green & Stepney.

Chingford & Woodford Green extends further into Redbridge, taking territory from Ilford North.  In turn that takes two wards from Ilford South, which takes Chadwell Heath, the northern salient of the current Dagenham & Rainham.  Dagenham & Rainham takes one ward from Barking, and there are only minor changes in Havering.

Tower Hamlets and Newham are another area of big Labour majorities, so the new Stratford & Bow is straightforwardly a new Labour seat.  The changes to Chingford & Woodford Green have little partisan effect so it retains a small Tory majority, while Ilford North becomes safer for Labour.  The changes to Dagenham & Rainham, a very narrow Labour hold in 2019, also have little partisan effect.

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Essex

Southend West extends further east in Southend, and is renamed Southend West & Leigh, although Leigh was already in the seat.  Rochford & Southend East loses that area in Southend and takes the eastern end of Rayleigh & Wickford and in spite of now containing less of Southend than it did before (I don't understand some of the BCE's naming decisions) has its name changed to Southend East & Rochford.  Further west, both Castle Point and Basildon & Billericay take some territory from South Basildon & East Thurrock.

Chelmsford loses a peripheral southern ward to Maldon.  Both Harlow and Braintree take territory from Saffron Walden, which gains an awkward "hourglass" shape and the prosaic new name North West Essex.  Braintree loses some territory to Witham, while Harwich & North Essex loses some territory to Clacton and in turn gains the south-east side of Colchester, stretching almost to the city centre.

Much of Essex is very Tory and so partisan effects will not be very significant.  Colchester becomes slightly harder for Labour to win, as does Harlow, but Thurrock slightly easier.  The two Southend seats remain longish shots for Labour; Chelmsford perhaps moves from "dream on" to "long shot".

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East Anglia

The major change in Norfolk and Suffolk is the creation of a new constituency, Waveney Valley, spreading across the border between the two counties.  It takes Diss and rural areas from South Norfolk and swathes of rural Suffolk from Bury St Edmunds and Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, including the small town of Eye which once gave its name to a constituency.  In spite of the name it is not really the successor to Waveney, though it does take the rural area around Bungay (recently revealed by the Census to be a hotbed of Satanism, if you count around 1% of the population as a hotbed) from that constituency, which becomes more concentrated around Lowestoft town and is renamed Lowestoft.  Elsewhere in Suffolk there are minor changes to the constituencies with one name change: Bury St Edmunds, which becomes a bit more concentrated around its towns, becomes Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket.

South Norfolk, having lost territory to the new seat, takes Wymondham from Mid Norfolk.  Norwich North extends a little bit further into the suburban sprawl outside the city boundary, taking Drayton from Broadland; it also takes a small area near the city centre from Norwich South because of ward boundary changes.  Elsewhere in Norfolk there are only minor changes, but Broadland is renamed Broadland & Fakenham, although it already contained Fakenham.

Cambridgeshire also gains a new constituency.  This is St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire, which takes St Neots from Huntingdon and stretches over to include the northern part of the Cambridge urban area around Girton, Histon and Impington; it also includes the sizable new developments of Cambourne and Northstowe.  Most of this territory comes from South Cambridgeshire, which gains the suburban ward of Cherry Hinton from oversized Cambridge and an area south-east of the city, including Stow cum Quy, Fulbourn and Balsham, from South East Cambridgeshire, which shuffles northwards and is renamed Ely & East Cambridgeshire.  As a result of that northwards shuffle, North East Cambridgeshire becomes coterminous with Fenland district.  Further west, the loss of St Neots allows Huntington to take on the rural south of the oversized North West Cambridgeshire, which comes ever closer to really just being a second Peterborough constituency.

Except for the creation of the new seat, the changes in Norfolk and Suffolk are not major and don't have clear partisan effects.  The new Waveney Valley itself is notionally safe Tory although following recent local election results in the area the Greens are (optimistically in this author's opinion) targetting it.  The new Lowestoft is slightly less of a long shot for Labour than the old Waveney, which had moved dramatically away from the party.

South Cambridgeshire probably becomes slightly easier for the Lib Dems to win, but Ely & East Cambridgeshire's shuffle northwards probably makes it a bit harder for them.  St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire does not look entirely safe for the Tories either, but it has more Labour potential than the other two and it's not clear who the challenger might be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It takes Diss and rural areas from South Norfolk and swathes of rural Suffolk from Bury St Edmunds and Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, including the small town of Eye which once gave its name to a constituency.  In spite of the name it is not really the successor to Waveney, though it does take the rural area around Bungay (recently revealed by the Census to be a hotbed of Satanism, if you count around 1% of the population as a hotbed) from that constituency, which becomes more concentrated around Lowestoft town and is renamed Lowestoft.

Evidently the Prince of Darkness himself arranged for this constituency to be produced by the Commission, to allow his worshippers to have a better chance at getting a seat to themselves.

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Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire

Hitchin & Harpenden is split into two.  Harpenden joins the Berkhamsted and Tring areas from South West Hertfordshire and areas of Hemel Hempstead north of the town to form Harpenden & Berkhamsted, while Hitchin forms the core of a new cross-county constituency with Bedfordshire, taking Shefford from Mid Bedfordshire and Stotfold and Arlesey from North East Bedfordshire; in spite of the border crossing the name is simply Hitchin.  North East Bedfordshire takes a couple of areas from Mid Bedfordshire and is renamed North Bedfordshire, now a clearly more accurate description.

Luton South already extended outside of Luton's boundaries but now it is extended into more rural territory further west, around Whipsnade and the Dunstable Downs, loses one Luton ward to Luton North, and gets another rather clumsy new name: Luton South & South Bedfordshire.  With the loss of that territory South West Bedfordshire becomes a more urban constituency and is renamed Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard.

Elsewhere in Hertfordshire, Hemel Hempstead now extends south-west of the town rather than north.  South West Hertfordshire, having lost its northern extension, gains the King's Langley and Abbots Langley area north of Watford, currently split between three constituencies, and also makes gains south of Watford.  Watford in turn gains Bushey North (in spite of the name more part of the Watford urban area than Bushey) from Hertsmere, which extends east, taking territory from Broxbourne which in turn takes the area just south of Hertford from the oversized Hertford & Stortford.

The new Hitchin is clearly notionally Tory but may be a Labour target if they are doing well.  Notional calculations in the area covered by the existing South West Hertfordshire are complicated by former MP David Gauke's independent campaign, but Harpenden & Berkhamsted may be a Lib Dem target.  Watford shifts towards Labour and now looks like low hanging fruit.  The changes (or lack of them) to Hemel Hempstead, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield have little impact on Labour's chances of winning these seats, while Lib Dem held St Albans is also little changed.

The rural extension to Luton South is not enough to threaten Labour's tenure there, while its removal from what is now Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard moves that seat slightly towards Labour, but it remains in the long shot category.

... and that completes the south of England.

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Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Shropshire

In Warwickshire, there are only minor changes to the boundaries, though the exchange of two wards between Kenilworth & Southam and Warwick & Leamington means the former now entirely surrounds the latter as a "doughnut".  There is a name change: North Warwickshire becomes North Warwickshire & Bedworth even though its boundaries are completely unchanged.  In Worcestershire, the changes to the boundaries are even more minor, as Redditch gains some territory from Mid Worcestershire, but again there is a name change as the latter seat becomes Droitwich & Evesham.

Herefordshire also sees minor boundary changes and doesn't even have a name change, but Shropshire makes up for that by having two: the ancient constituency name of Ludlow becomes South Shropshire and Shrewsbury & Atcham is simplified to Shrewsbury.  Atcham itself, always a very small place to get a mention in a constituency name, is part of a mostly area south-east of Shrewsbury which is transferred out of the constituency and into South Shropshire.  Additionally The Wrekin gains some rural territory in the south-east part of North Shropshire.

Changes in this area are generally minor and so partisan effects will be small.  The most significant is the contraction of Shrewsbury, which makes that constituency more vulnerable to Labour.  Warwick & Leamington becomes a little more secure for Labour and Redditch and The Wrekin a bit safer for the Tories.  The removal of rural territory on the periphery of North Shropshire may make it a little more plausible that the Lib Dems hold their by-election gain there.