UK parliamentary boundary review

[patzer]

My thoughts. Bolding my predicted winner in the event of no incumbent retirements and results the same as 2019, and italicizing incumbents I expect to lose thanks to the boundary changes.

Looking only at North/Central/West Wales as doing it all would take too long.

32: Ynys Môn. Unchanged. 2019 MP is Virginia Crosbie (CON), but competitive with Labour and Plaid.
15: Dwyfor Meirionnydd plus half of Arfon. Both are Plaid Cymru currently. Liz Saville Roberts (PC), Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster, is the MP for Dwyfor Meirionnydd and almost certainly stands again here.
2: Aberconwy, plus the other half of Arfon and a bit of Clwyd West. Somewhat similar to the former seat of Conwy (abolished in 2010). The Aberconwy incumbent is the Conservative Robin Millar, though it's historically always had Labour in a fairly close second. Meanwhile, the Arfon incumbent, Plaid Cymru's Hywel Williams, probably has to stand here given Dwyfor Meirionnydd not being an option. So this'll be a very interesting battle between incumbents- although my rough estimate is that in 2019 it probably voted something like Labour 40%, Con 37%, and Plaid 22% (despite Labour not having won either of the predecessor seats since 2005...), so all being equal I would actually predict a Labour gain.
13: Roughly the successor seat to Clwyd West, also including about half of Vale of Clwyd. Both seats Conservative but competitive with Labour. Clwyd West incumbent David Jones (CON) probably runs.
14: The other half of Vale of Clwyd, plus most of Delyn. Both of which were Tory in 2019 but competitive. The Delyn incumbent Rob Roberts got expelled from the Conservative Party for sexual harassment, so the likely Tory nominee here is the Vale of Clwyd incumbent James Davies (CON).
3: The existing constituency of Alyn and Deeside, with Mold added to it from Delyn. The only North Wales seat Labour kept in 2019, incumbent is Mark Tami (LAB) who held very narrowly. I'm gonna guess that he still won under the new boundaries thanks to Mold presumably being not quite as Tory thanks to being a town, but I could easily be wrong on this one. It's close.
31: Wrexham, with a bit of Clwyd South added. Both formerly-more-Labour seats that went Tory in 2019. Incumbent Sarah Atherton (CON).
21: Montgomeryshire, with half of Clwyd South. Montgomeryshire is historically a Conservative/Lib Dem battleground but nowadays more Con, while Clwyd South used to be Labour (Boris Johnson stood there as a no-hope Tory candidate in 1997, funnily enough). Will certainly go Tory, the question is which incumbent wins. Simon Baynes of Clwyd South is on the Welsh Affairs select committee so may have a chance, but I'd have to guess the young Craig Williams (CON) of Montgomeryshire wins thanks to his seat forming the majority of the new one.
5: Brecon and Radnorshire, along with a bit of Neath. Brecon and Radnorshire is Tory albeit having decent amounts of Lib Dem strength; the bit of Neath won't impact this. Fay Jones (CON) reelected.
12: Ceredigion and a third of Preseli Pembrokeshire. Ceredigion is safe Plaid Cymru nowadays albeit with a Lib Dem history; Preseli Pembrokeshire is Tory. If I assume all of Preseli Pembrokeshire voted the same way (I don't have ward data), the votes for the new seat work out as 29.69% Conservative, 29.54% Plaid Cymru, 21.82% Labour, 13.97% Lib Dem. It's a mess, and looks like a complete tossup, but by my estimate of 2019 data, the Ceredigion incumbent Ben Lake (PC) will narrowly lose to a Conservative candidate. (This could be the Preseli Pembrokeshire MP Stephen Crabb but I think he'll run in the following seat)
19: This is 65% Preseli Pembrokeshire and 60% of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. Two Conservative seats with fairly senior Tories. I expect Preseli Pembrokeshire's Stephen Crabb (CON) to win here, whilst the incumbent runs in the following...
7. 40% of Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (safe Tory) and 90% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (PC - Tory marginal where Plaid narrowly won last time). This new seat should just be called Carmarthen, would be simplest. The Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire incumbent, Simon Hart (CON) would prevail over the Plaid Cymru candidate, who will likely not be Carmarthen East and Dinefwr incumbent Jonathan Edwards (Ind) as he's suspended from the party for assault. Around 40% Conservative, 30% Plaid Cymru, 27% Labour.

Right, that's enough analysis for me for now. I think the important taking from this is that Plaid Cymru absolutely got a hammering from the boundary redrawing. From 4 seats last election, to only 1 guaranteed and a tossup this time.

[YL]

12: Ceredigion and a third of Preseli Pembrokeshire. Ceredigion is safe Plaid Cymru nowadays albeit with a Lib Dem history; Preseli Pembrokeshire is Tory. If I assume all of Preseli Pembrokeshire voted the same way (I don't have ward data), the votes for the new seat work out as 29.69% Conservative, 29.54% Plaid Cymru, 21.82% Labour, 13.97% Lib Dem. It's a mess, and looks like a complete tossup, but by my estimate of 2019 data, the Ceredigion incumbent Ben Lake (PC) will narrowly lose to a Conservative candidate. (This could be the Preseli Pembrokeshire MP Stephen Crabb but I think he'll run in the following seat)

North Pembrokeshire (roughly speaking the bit which goes into this seat) is much more Welsh speaking than the rest ("Little England beyond Wales").  As you say we don't have ward data but that generally correlates well with Plaid support and I think Plaid are probably OK here.

[YL]

If remotely accurate then what an absolute fiasco of a set of boundaries. Unhinged.

Which do you think is the area with the worst proposals?

[patzer]

12: Ceredigion and a third of Preseli Pembrokeshire. Ceredigion is safe Plaid Cymru nowadays albeit with a Lib Dem history; Preseli Pembrokeshire is Tory. If I assume all of Preseli Pembrokeshire voted the same way (I don't have ward data), the votes for the new seat work out as 29.69% Conservative, 29.54% Plaid Cymru, 21.82% Labour, 13.97% Lib Dem. It's a mess, and looks like a complete tossup, but by my estimate of 2019 data, the Ceredigion incumbent Ben Lake (PC) will narrowly lose to a Conservative candidate. (This could be the Preseli Pembrokeshire MP Stephen Crabb but I think he'll run in the following seat)

North Pembrokeshire (roughly speaking the bit which goes into this seat) is much more Welsh speaking than the rest ("Little England beyond Wales").  As you say we don't have ward data but that generally correlates well with Plaid support and I think Plaid are probably OK here.

That’s a good point. Plaid Cymru only got 6% in Preseli Pembrokeshire as a whole so they’re unlikely to have got a huge amount even in the North Pembrokeshire area, but it could easily be enough that they retain the seat.

[beesley]

From a purely partisan perspective I was in the Bridgend seat earlier and it's nice its awful MP being drawn out.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If remotely accurate then what an absolute fiasco of a set of boundaries. Unhinged.

Which do you think is the area with the worst proposals?

The cross-Berwyn constituency is absolutely ludicrous - the easiest way to get from end of the constituency to the other is via Oswestry.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The actual welsh boundaries are out if people wanna check them and see it in more detail. To my eye the leak looks like it was accurate.


https://www.bcw-reviews.org.uk/publications

[Estrella]

I'm not familiar with how Wales looks on the ground, but even I can see how ugly this is. Ceredigion Preseli is probably the worst. Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Islwyn and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney are also very strange - why cross into neighbouring valleys instead of drawing them north-south like now? Ugh.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not familiar with how Wales looks on the ground, but even I can see how ugly this is. Ceredigion Preseli is probably the worst. Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Islwyn and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney are also very strange - why cross into neighbouring valleys instead of drawing them north-south like now? Ugh.

I guess it comes down to population distribution. Many of us played around with Wales a few months ago. The mutual conclusion was that one would have to make some unenviable tradeoffs somewhere on the map to get everything to work. This is better than some of the alternatives, at least from my persepctive.

[njwes]

When will some or all of the seemingly-unending UK boundary reviews actually be put into effect by Parliamentary act(s)?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm not familiar with how Wales looks on the ground, but even I can see how ugly this is. Ceredigion Preseli is probably the worst. Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, Islwyn and Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney are also very strange - why cross into neighbouring valleys instead of drawing them north-south like now? Ugh.

Population of COI's don't always line up with electoral quotas, when you have a strict variance limit there's not much you can do about having to split some communities up.

[YL]

The cross-Berwyn constituency is absolutely ludicrous - the easiest way to get from end of the constituency to the other is via Oswestry.

Well yes but I think the attitude is that a Montgomeryshire/Meirionnydd link is even worse (or, rather, more pitchforky).

Cardiff is pretty bad, especially South & Penarth which has a detached part for all practical purposes.  The arrangement around the Vale of Clwyd looks poor as well: what are those villages south of Ruthin doing in a seat with Colwyn Bay and Rhyl but not Ruthin?  (And the names there are poor as well.)

OTOH "Ceredigion Preseli" may look weird but I think it's the best solution for Ceredigion.  I'm not sure about the Gwent valleys but it is a difficult area with the strict quota.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There are some bad seats in the Valleys, but it doesn't look like the worst option for Merthyr - the Heads of the Valleys Road is a moderately decent link.

I take the view that you can actually get from Meirionydd to Montgomeryshire in a reasonably direct fashion, and the only reason it's pitchforky is the belief of some Welsh nationalists that they should effectively have preserved seats. A lot of Meirionydd does in any case face similar issues and have similar demographics to Montgomeryshire.

[CumbrianLefty]

When will some or all of the seemingly-unending UK boundary reviews actually be put into effect by Parliamentary act(s)?

By the second half of 2023, appears to be the plan.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The basic problem is that they have mostly tried to expand existing seats where possible (the sort of thing that you would do if you were ignorant of Welsh geography), and the result is a consistent disaster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I take the view that you can actually get from Meirionydd to Montgomeryshire in a reasonably direct fashion, and the only reason it's pitchforky is the belief of some Welsh nationalists that they should effectively have preserved seats. A lot of Meirionydd does in any case face similar issues and have similar demographics to Montgomeryshire.

Yes, they have a lot of similarities and historical links. Arguing that Machynlleth has little in common and little to do with Dolgellau is howlingly hysterical. Another partial option is returning Corwen et al to Meirionnydd. In practical terms the political objections (and those should never really be a factor anyway) don't stand up: party affiliation is looser in rural Wales than just about anywhere in Britain south of Scotland and there's no obvious reason why a Plaid candidate prepared to put the work in could not do well in western Montgomery.

[Cassius]

They seem to have saved Alun Cairns’ (former Secretary of State for Wales) bacon, with the Vale of Glamorgan losing only one ward. I seem to remember a previous set of proposed boundaries where the seat was cleaved in two, with one half merging with Bridgend and the other merging with Penarth and the area around it (which does have wards with decent Tory strength but also has a number of very Labour wards). Seat is still marginal of course but I imagine he’d be reasonably happy with this result.

The annexation of a large chunk of the Swansea valley by Brecon and Radnorshire is quite amusing though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The annexation of a large chunk of the Swansea valley by Brecon and Radnorshire is quite amusing though.

Real Galaxy Brain stuff. Would mean (if it stands...) that Labour would start to contest Brecon & Radnor seriously again which it hasn't done for twenty years.

[YL]

Electoral Calculus says Lab 18 (-4) Con 12 (-2) Plaid 2 (-2) for notionals.  Aberconwy, Alyn & Deeside, Caerfyrddin all Con.

[afleitch]

The annexation of a large chunk of the Swansea valley by Brecon and Radnorshire is quite amusing though.

Real Galaxy Brain stuff. Would mean (if it stands...) that Labour would start to contest Brecon & Radnor seriously again which it hasn't done for twenty years.

Loving the new North Wales 'Valleys' too.

[Gary JG]

When will some or all of the seemingly-unending UK boundary reviews actually be put into effect by Parliamentary act(s)?

By the second half of 2023, appears to be the plan.

Under the current law, it is no longer necessary for the boundary changes to be approved by parliamentary vote. In theory the review could be derailed by primary legislation, but this does not seem likely. Whatever emerges from the review process will almost certainly be the set of boundaries used at the next general election after the review is implemented.

The boundary commissions are legally required to submit their final recommendations by 1 July 2023. The government are then required to give legal effect to the recommendations by obtaining an Order in Council. This is a formality as the government has total control of which members of the Privy Council attend a meeting and it would be unthinkable for the Queen to reject the advice of ministers.

[Blair]

There’s still rumours that the election will happen before these boundaries come in- which would mean we’d lose out on the joy of watching MPs fight over seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Loving the new North Wales 'Valleys' too.

'Clearly the inland areas must be the hinterland of the coast'

[Gary JG]

There’s still rumours that the election will happen before these boundaries come in- which would mean we’d lose out on the joy of watching MPs fight over seats.

A general election before the new boundaries are given legal effect, would be under the existing boundaries. It would probably be impractical, or at least massively inconvenient, to try to hold an election in the second half of 2023 as parties and electoral staff would probably need about six months to properly sort out the changes.

An early general election could be held up to mid 2023, but if the Conservatives were to lose power then the new government might well want to pass urgent primary legislation to cancel the 2023 review and start again with modified rules about how to draw up yet another set of new boundaries. The existing boundaries would then be getting close to remaining in force for a length of time not much less than the 1885-1918 and 1918-1950 sets of constituency boundaries. This would rather defeat the purpose of having regular periodic boundary reviews.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

These really suck for PC.