UK parliamentary boundary review

[Conservatopia]

I'm happy with my area.   I only just manage to stay in my current seat and as noted this seat might be a Labour target now.  I wonder who benefits most from Bath's changes?  Presumably the Tories?

I like the Bristol map and Filton & BS (is that your seat then?) but I'm not so convinced by the leftover bits of Kingswood being put in a seat called "Keynsham & North East Somerset".  It's slightly bizarre to see Bristol West lose three of its easternmost wards and get renamed Bristol Central, but TBH I think that's an acknowledgement that it should have been renamed in the last review.  (I guess it becomes a slightly more plausible Green target?)

Overall I think the South West is not bad, but I'd have tried to do it (indeed I did do it) with fewer county boundary crossings.

Yes I'm in FBS.  I agree that boundary crossing should be avoided but ultimately they have mostly kept similar communities together.

The problem in my view is that the communities with the best links to Bristol (Hanham, Filton, Staple Hill) are all far enough away from each other that you can't  really  keep them together as the Bristol portion of the seat becomes illogical, and then you separate  them from areas like Oldland Common and Patchway. But as a local you might disagree.

I get what you mean but to be fair those areas are connected to very good road links so aren't all that distant.  If I had to change anything with FBS I might have moved my village into T&Y (it is better linked with Yate imo) and tried to retain the coastal area.  This would create a sort of long outer North Bristol seat.

[vileplume]

Somerset



Lots of churn. Taunton Deene is now just Taunton thanks to shrinkage.  New Birdgwater seat. Weston Super Mare has shrunk, might be held by Labour whenever they form the next government. bath and Bristol got a lot of work....



Jacob Rees-Mogg's constituency got cracked HARD, but I suspect he can win Frome. Bath Expands. Fifth new Bristol seat in the east of the city and includes New Cheltenham. +1 Lab. Filton & Bradley Stoke loses the coastal territory. May also be a Labour target in a competitive election.

No it didn't, it's Chris Skidmore's Kingswood that's got the chop. The monstrosity that is Keynsham & North East Somerset (which crosses into Gloucestershire...) is technically Rees-Mogg's seat. It's probably more Tory than his current seat too as the Bristol suburbs brought in are quite heavily Tory inclined whilst Midsomer Norton and environs still have a bit of a Labour vote (albeit diminished).

In any case if these boundaries come to pass Rees-Mogg may agree to stand in Frome to allow Skidmore to stand in Keynsham & North East Somerset. In either constituency he'll have no problems winning. However I doubt these boundaries will survive public consultation, crossing the Gloucestershire-Somerset boundary unnecessarily as well as giving Kingswood to axe for no good reason is prime pitchfork bait.

[CumbrianLefty]

I see that the Copeland/Windermere monstrosity that was one of the most "notable" creations of the original 600 seat review has - amazingly - been revived. Absolutely not impressed.

[vileplume]

I'm happy with my area.   I only just manage to stay in my current seat and as noted this seat might be a Labour target now.  I wonder who benefits most from Bath's changes?  Presumably the Tories?

I like the Bristol map and Filton & BS (is that your seat then?) but I'm not so convinced by the leftover bits of Kingswood being put in a seat called "Keynsham & North East Somerset".  It's slightly bizarre to see Bristol West lose three of its easternmost wards and get renamed Bristol Central, but TBH I think that's an acknowledgement that it should have been renamed in the last review.  (I guess it becomes a slightly more plausible Green target?)

Overall I think the South West is not bad, but I'd have tried to do it (indeed I did do it) with fewer county boundary crossings.

Yes I'm in FBS.  I agree that boundary crossing should be avoided but ultimately they have mostly kept similar communities together.

The problem in my view is that the communities with the best links to Bristol (Hanham, Filton, Staple Hill) are all far enough away from each other that you can't  really  keep them together as the Bristol portion of the seat becomes illogical, and then you separate  them from areas like Oldland Common and Patchway. But as a local you might disagree.

The best place for a cross is the 4 wards running along the city edge from Filton to Staple Hill. This has the added benefit of ensuring that Bristol's second university (UWE) finds itself in a Bristol seat (a lot of these students live in Fishponds in Bristol proper).

This would be my suggestion:

 

You can swap Yate and Thornbury round if you're so inclined. I went for this formation as I was reluctant to separate Yate from Chipping Sodbury which is practically contiguous with the town.

[YL]

I see that the Copeland/Windermere monstrosity that was one of the most "notable" creations of the original 600 seat review has - amazingly - been revived. Absolutely not impressed.

I'm surprised it's taken you so long to comment on that TBH...

Ridiculous and misleading name too.

[Oryxslayer]

I didn't realize the new Barrow in Furness seat utilized water connectivity wtf.

The Tories apparently got the most 2019 votes in the new Wirral West according to Britain Elects.

[Oryxslayer]

I posted these images to give some background for YL's posts.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Oof. I had heard it was bad for Farron, but ouch.

Also, I didn’t realize that’s where the Lake District was. I always thought it was in England, but near southern Wales, not close to Scotland.

[YL]

I didn't realize the new Barrow in Furness seat utilized water connectivity wtf.

There's actually a railway connection.

[beesley]

The Preston seat is the worst I have seen, I think.

[YL]

Greater Manchester

In the west, Wigan is unchanged.  In some awkward swaps, Makerfield gains parts of Leigh, with part of Ashton in Makerfield going the other way; Leigh also gains Atherton from Bolton West, loses Astley to Worsley & Eccles, and becomes Leigh South & Atherton.

Bolton West loses Atherton and gains territory closer to Bolton town centre.  Bolton North East gains Darcy Lever & Little Lever from Bolton South East, which crosses into Salford and becomes Bolton South & Walkden.  Eccles is reunited in Worsley & Eccles, so Salford on its own becomes a constituency name again.  Bury North gains part of Radcliffe from South, which gains Kersal ward in Salford.

Blackley & Broughton loses its Salford component and becomes Manchester Blackley again, but takes part of Middleton from Heywood & Middleton, which becomes just Heywood (but does still contain part of Middleton) and gains a small area from Rochdale.  A three borough seat (Manchester, Oldham, Tameside) appears called Failsworth & Droylsden, and as it takes Gorton Manchester Gorton is replaced by Manchester Longsight.

Oldham West & Royton and Oldham East & Saddleworth are unchanged.  In Tameside, Ashton under Lyne is quite heavily redrawn, losing areas to that Failsworth & Droylsden but gaining parts of the now split town of Stalybridge from Stalybridge & Hyde, which gains Denton from the abolished Denton & Reddish and is renamed Denton & Hyde.

Reddish joins Stockport, and Hazel Grove and Cheadle have fairly minor changes, as do Manchester Withington and Manchester Central.  Finally the Trafford seats, including Wythenshawe & Sale East, have no changes.

Quite a few split towns here: Leigh, Middleton, Stalybridge.

Heywood may flip back to Labour; the Bury seats, in spite of how close they are, probably don't.

[S019]

New Statesman has released their full election prediction for the redrawn constituencies: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/06/conservatives-and-lib-dems-set-gain-english-boundary-changes-notional

[CumbrianLefty]

Their estimate seems notably less good for Tories than the Electoral Calculus one, though.

[YL]

Northumberland (historic, including Newcastle and North Tyneside)

This area loses a seat.

Berwick upon Tweed extends south to include Morpeth from the current Wansbeck, and is renamed Berwick & Morpeth.  The Ashington part of Wansbeck joins with Blyth to form Ashington & Blyth, while the southern part of Blyth Valley is joined with the north-east part of North Tyneside borough to form Whitley Bay & Cramlington.

Hexham gains the western edge of Newcastle from the now more accurately named Newcastle North, which shifts east, gaining the north-west part of North Tyneside borough.  Newcastle Central loses the city centre to Newcastle East and is renamed Newcastle West, also taking on some territory from North.  Tynemouth is heavily redrawn, losing Whitley Bay and gaining Wallsend.

Ashington & Blyth will be notionally Labour, but the new Whitley Bay & Cramlington is probably marginally notionally Tory, in which case it's Labour who are down one on 2019 figures.  I don't think there's much partisan impact from the other changes outside of landslide scenarios.

[YL]

Durham and the Tees Valley (including southern Tyne & Wear)

Another seat is lost here.

Blaydon extends a little east, gaining from Gateshead, which itself gains territory to the east meaning that the borough of Gateshead is simply divided between them.  South Shields gains Cleadon and East Boldon from Jarrow, which develops an ugly protuberance into Sunderland and becomes Jarrow & Sunderland West.  Sunderland Central is unchanged, while Washington is paired with areas slightly further south in Sunderland, becoming Washington & Sunderland South West.  Houghton & Sunderland South is broken up, with Houghton-le-Spring joining City of Durham across the 1974 county boundary while some of the Sunderland South part becomes part of a successor to Easington called Seaham & Peterlee.  (Yes, the Sunderland proposals are a bit of a mess.)

The western parts of City of Durham are split between North West Durham and Bishop Auckland, and North Durham gains a small area from North West Durham.  Sedgefield loses the rural parts of Darlington borough and gains a few areas from neighbouring seats; it's also renamed Newton Aycliffe & Sedgefield, but Newton Aycliffe was already in the constituency.

Darlington gains some of those rural parts of its borough; the rest go to Stockton South, which is renamed Stockton West and also swaps some areas with Stockton North.  Hartlepool is unchanged.

Middlesbrough gains parts of Thornaby, but parts of the east of its borough go to Redcar, which becomes Redcar & Eston.  That also loses Marske-by-the-Sea to Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland.

I think (Newton Aycliffe &) Sedgefield flips back to Labour, but at the cost of making Darlington and Stockton West harder to win.  Redcar & Eston, OTOH, might become a little easier to win back.

[Coastal Elitist]

Yeah electoral calculus has a twelve-seat gain for the tories while New Statesman has six and even has lib dems gaining seats. Who's more reliable.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah electoral calculus has a twelve-seat gain for the tories while New Statesman has six and even has lib dems gaining seats. Who's more reliable.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

I mean the correct answer is neither - constituency campaigns are not national and therefore swings are not entirely universal. A uncompetitive seat will behave differently than one carpeted by campaigners and their literature. So taking parts of one seat and adding it to another are always going to have a MOE. The 2019 election also has a good chance to go down as close to a high water mark for the Westminster Conservatives. In the event of a competitive election, the seat count will recede and likely partially in new areas when compared to 2019.

The other thing to keep in mind is very little of that seat change came from reshuffling the lines. Some areas certainly gained safe seats and others lost them, but the big factor is that England will gain 10 seats from Wales and Scotland. This map is only a partial picture.

[vileplume]

Somerset



Lots of churn. Taunton Deene is now just Taunton thanks to shrinkage.  New Birdgwater seat. Weston Super Mare has shrunk, might be held by Labour whenever they form the next government. bath and Bristol got a lot of work....



Jacob Rees-Mogg's constituency got cracked HARD, but I suspect he can win Frome. Bath Expands. Fifth new Bristol seat in the east of the city and includes New Cheltenham. +1 Lab. Filton & Bradley Stoke loses the coastal territory. May also be a Labour target in a competitive election.

No it didn't, it's Chris Skidmore's Kingswood that's got the chop. The monstrosity that is Keynsham & North East Somerset (which crosses into Gloucestershire...) is technically Rees-Mogg's seat. It's probably more Tory than his current seat too as the Bristol suburbs brought in are quite heavily Tory inclined whilst Midsomer Norton and environs still have a bit of a Labour vote (albeit diminished).

In any case if these boundaries come to pass Rees-Mogg may agree to stand in Frome to allow Skidmore to stand in Keynsham & North East Somerset. In either constituency he'll have no problems winning. However I doubt these boundaries will survive public consultation, crossing the Gloucestershire-Somerset boundary unnecessarily as well as giving Kingswood to axe for no good reason is prime pitchfork bait.

Nah it’s not more Tory than the current boundaries, Midsomer Norton, Peasedown don’t vote Labour any more - and the countryside around Bath votes Lib Dem. You’re exchanging areas where the Tories win 5-1 for areas they win 2-1 at best. Labour nearly won Banes on 30% turnout in May, and that was including Bath. Clearly the Keynsham, Clutton, Timsbury, Paulton part have swung hard back to Labour.

Also this is hardly unprecedented, it’s basically a return to the old Wansdyke seat Labour held 1997-2010.

Don't agree at all. Labour would have nearly won BANES because of Bath, where there is a large 'natural' Labour vote nowadays (university town), but the Lib Dems have got it heavily squeezed in most elections. It's not because of Keynsham (no idea where you pulled that from...). Honestly Bath would be a comfortably Labour seat if not for Lib Dem entrenchment (à la Canterbury except even more extreme as it's tightly drawn around the city and lacks rural/small town areas).

Also whilst Midsomer Norton and environs don't vote Labour nowadays they hardly vote Tory by 5-1!! Radstock and Westfield still even have Labour councillors. The areas added from Kingswood are some of the Tories best areas of that constituency and are areas where they squash Labour nowadays.

[YL]

Yeah electoral calculus has a twelve-seat gain for the tories while New Statesman has six and even has lib dems gaining seats. Who's more reliable.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

I'm pretty sure the New Statesman figures for Peterborough and Sheffield Hallam are both wrong, and that neither seat flips.  (Combined, that's Con +1 LD -1.)  In both cases the boundary changes are simply realignment to new ward boundaries and it's difficult to see how they change the winner.  I suspect the algorithm had some difficulties with realigned wards.

AIUI Electoral Calculus uses some demographic modelling as well as local election results.  So it may be better in areas where local voting patterns are strongly decoupled from national ones, but that depends on the demographic modelling being any good.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah electoral calculus has a twelve-seat gain for the tories while New Statesman has six and even has lib dems gaining seats. Who's more reliable.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

Electoral Calculus is generally crap. Hope this helps

[YL]

From the old thread:

Supposedly leaded boundaries of the new Welsh constituencies. We all know from personal experience that drawing these lines sensibly would be a challenger, and even though the lines appear orderly, you still have to have things like B&R now getting a good chunk of former Neath.

[YL]

So no Montgomeryshire/Meirionnydd link: the former goes with southern Denbighshire.  (Neither option is very good IMO, but one is needed.)  If you don't want to extend Brecon & Radnor down the Tawe then you probably end up splitting Montgomeryshire.

All the north coast seats have both coastal and inland components; I'd probably have drawn one mostly coastal seat.

[Blair]

I live for the forever war discord- who is at risk from Labour?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If remotely accurate then what an absolute fiasco of a set of boundaries. Unhinged.

[YL]

I live for the forever war discord- who is at risk from Labour?

Well, I doubt anybody has worked out the details yet...

But in Gwent Blaenau Gwent, Islwyn, Caerphilly and Newport West go into three new seats, so probably the middle two are most at risk.

Cynon Valley gets split between Merthyr and Pontypridd.

Gower, the two Swansea seats and Neath also go into three new seats.  I'm not sure which is most broken up at the moment.  The rather weird seat 26 (are they calling it Swansea Central?) has significant chunks of all of Gower, Swansea W and Swansea E.

I guess the new Bridgend (seat 6) is notionally Labour with the Maesteg area.