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January 17, 2021, 11:01:30 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Larry Hogan creates Maryland redistricting commission with executive order
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Author Topic: Larry Hogan creates Maryland redistricting commission with executive order  (Read 1207 times)
Virginiá
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« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2021, 11:42:08 AM »

An 8-0 map is very possible, but I'm not sure if the state legislature, as overwhelmingly Democratic as it is, has any interest in provoking Hogan's wrath and fueling the Republican effort and fervor for the 2022 gubernatorial election, in which everyone's hoping Franchot will coast to victory.

None of that is going to matter. If Republicans are going to be pissed and voting reliably because of it, it's going to be over Biden, not an opaque map drawing process that most Americans don't really understand. Otherwise you'd have expected some real blowback from Democrats in 2012 over the GOP's very successful efforts to lock in political power across the country for the next decade+.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2021, 11:47:05 AM »

Also, couldn’t this set the precedent for Kelly, Beshear, JBE and Evers to do this in their states?

Evers already did lol,

Kelly should just start setting up the lawsuits although the KS GOP is incompetent.

Kelly has cavalry support from the state supreme court.  JBE and Evers can block it directly just by vetoing.  Hogan and especially Beshear are likely out of luck.  

Hogan might have State supreme court support but I doubt they work with this commission lol.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2021, 11:48:23 AM »

Also, couldn’t this set the precedent for Kelly, Beshear, JBE and Evers to do this in their states?

Evers already did lol,

Kelly should just start setting up the lawsuits although the KS GOP is incompetent.

Kelly has cavalry support from the state supreme court.  JBE and Evers can block it directly just by vetoing.  Hogan and especially Beshear are likely out of luck. 

I’m somewhat doubtful that the Republicans will be able to create a 6-0 map in KY. Cracking Louisville at the very least violates the spirit of the State Constitution clause regarding minimising county splits.
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vileplume
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« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2021, 11:49:20 AM »

Also, couldn’t this set the precedent for Kelly, Beshear, JBE and Evers to do this in their states?

The problem with this is that independent commissions in these states wouldn't actually net the Democrats any more seats like it would for the GOP in Maryland, it would stop the GOP trying to draw out Yarmuth or Davids but I'm not sure they'll do either of they'll manage to do either anyway. In fact a 'fair' map in Wisconsin would likely unpack the 3rd by removing Stevens Point, thus making Kind even more likely to lose in 2022 yielding a 6-2 GOP delegation (the 1st may be made more Dem but would likely still lean right).
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2021, 11:51:21 AM »

An 8-0 map is very possible, but I'm not sure if the state legislature, as overwhelmingly Democratic as it is, has any interest in provoking Hogan's wrath and fueling the Republican effort and fervor for the 2022 gubernatorial election, in which everyone's hoping Franchot will coast to victory.

None of that is going to matter. If Republicans are going to be pissed and voting reliably because of it, it's going to be over Biden, not an opaque map drawing process that most Americans don't really understand. Otherwise you'd have expected some real blowback from Democrats in 2012 over the GOP's very successful efforts to lock in political power across the country for the next decade+.

The point is that to win the MD-Gov race in 2022, the Republicans are going to need some crossover support from Democrats, most likely the kind who are concerned about “good government” and “checks and balances” on the state Democrats, concerns which may be increased by this. But I agree with you, going for 8-0 is definitely worth it for the MD Dems on balance.
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swf541
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« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2021, 12:20:17 PM »

Hopefully MD Dems finally draw a good 8-0 map.

The proud revelry that would ensue across the state in reaction to the long-awaited end of the era of Andy Harris would be delicious.

Oh I know, I want it so badly.
I greatly enjoyed watching Trone defeat Parrot as well
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muon2
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« Reply #31 on: January 15, 2021, 07:00:52 PM »

It's true that Maryland is one of the most gerrymandered states in the country, but it only costs the GOP one seat vs. a fair map. Meanwhile Republicans seem to turn a blind eye to the countless potential Democratic seats that are lost to gerrymandering in OH, TX, et cetera. This would be a good move to take on nationwide, but in just one state it's pointless unilateral disarmament, assuming the legislature will even heed the commission's desires.

TX yes, OH no longer. Term limits brought the sides together mid-decade in OH to modify their commission so that the decade long Pub gerrymanders can't be passed. They could actually come to a bipartisan deal on the map depending on how the sides see their prospects next fall when the map is likely to be passed. Worst case the OH Pubs pass a gerrymander that only lasts 4 years, and even then the new law constrains some of the tactics they have used in the past.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: January 15, 2021, 07:21:52 PM »

Kind of hilariously this may work, since Hogan came into office at the right time and right now the Maryland Supreme Court has a 4/7 majority of Hogan appointees.

I've read that one is a centrist liberal that was originally appointed by O'Malley to the lower courts.

This is similar to what Evers is doing in Wisconsin. Doubt either work.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #33 on: January 15, 2021, 09:25:42 PM »

Also, couldn’t this set the precedent for Kelly, Beshear, JBE and Evers to do this in their states?

Evers already did lol,

Kelly should just start setting up the lawsuits although the KS GOP is incompetent.

Kelly has cavalry support from the state supreme court.  JBE and Evers can block it directly just by vetoing.  Hogan and especially Beshear are likely out of luck. 

I’m somewhat doubtful that the Republicans will be able to create a 6-0 map in KY. Cracking Louisville at the very least violates the spirit of the State Constitution clause regarding minimising county splits.

They easily have the legislative supermajorities required to change that state constitution if they wish.
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