How low can it go? - Predict Trump's net approval rating when he leaves office

[Badger]

Another tidbit from the Pew poll:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1350217421538398210

And I'll bet among men in that category he still has at least plurality support, possibly even a narrow majority.

The Republican Party. Idiots R Us.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Another tidbit from the Pew poll:

/tweet

And I'll bet among men in that category he still has at least plurality support, possibly even a narrow majority.

The Republican Party. Idiots R Us.

The Republican Party. They also gave Nixon & both Bushes positive approval numbers at their lowest points

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Jan. 9-14, 1003 adults (change from late October)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 62 (+7)

This is Trump's worst-ever showing in this poll.  The previous low was 35/59 in Dec. 2017.

54% think Trump should be removed from office; 43% don't.

[Beet]

This is the problem when you base your entire persona on "winning". If you don't win, it all falls apart. Trump must be quite aware of this and it likely explains his refusal to concede.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News, Jan. 10-13, 1000 RV (change from late Oct.)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 32 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+2)

Not as much movement as in most other polls, but worth noting that this has always been Trump's best among the high-quality polls.

[Sir Mohamed]

Another tidbit from the Pew poll:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1350217421538398210

THANK YOU! WORKING HARD!

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk University, Jan. 12-15, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Biden:

Approve 46
Disapprove 29

Trump:

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

If Donald Trump ran for the White House in 2024, would you vote for him?

Yes 23
No 60
Maybe 14

How do you think history will assess Donald Trump - would you say he will be viewed as a great president, a good president, a
fair president, or a failed president?

Great 15
Good 10
Fair 11
Failed 58

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Jan. 10-13, 1023 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-5)
Disapprove 62 (+5)

This is Trump's worst-ever showing from Gallup.  He exits office as the only President to never reach 50% approval in their poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 15-17, 1131 RV (1-week change)

Approve 34 (+1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 55 (+1)

Do you think President Trump should be allowed to hold elected office in the future, or not?

Yes 38
No 59

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Right around 50%

[Biden his time]

POLL HAS CLOSED

JAN 11, 2021: -14.0% Net Approval - Date this poll was created

JAN 12, 2021: -14.7% Net Approval - More polls come in, approval falls some

JAN 15, 2021: -20.0% Net Approval - Approval Rating bottoms out

JAN 18, 2021: -19.8% Net Approval - Average stabilizes, gets above -20%.

JAN 20, 2021: -19.3% Net Approval - Tracker ended, Rasmussen (who had the gall to show a positive approval rating on its last poll) and AtlasIntel got the last laugh.

Whoever chose -18.0% to -19.9% wins. 15 out of the 68 total votes chose this amount, representing 22.1% of total votes, and it was the second-most-picked category, after -20.0% to -21.9% (which Trump also reached).

🍪🍪🍪
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The Net Approval Rating on the day Donald Trump leaves office can be taken by subtracting the Disapproval rating from the approval rating (among all polls). At the time I write this, at January 11, 2021, Donald Trump's approval rating on the FiveThirtyEight tracker is 40.7% and his disapproval rating is 54.7%. This gives a net approval rating currently of -14.0%. It's also rounded to the nearest tenth so don't worry about the hundredths place (when has that ever mattered lol).

For context, here are the historic lows and highs.

Creating this poll - January 11, 2021: -14.0% Net Approval (54.7% Disapprove 40.7% Approve)

All time low - December 15, 2017: -20.9% Net Approval (57.4% Disapprove 36.5% Approve)

All time high - January 25, 2017: +5.3% Net Approval (42.5% Disapprove 47.8% Approve)

Government shutdown low point - January 26, 2019: -16.7% (56.0% Disapprove 39.3% Approve)

COVID-19 high point - April 01, 2020: -3.9% Net Approval (49.7% Disapprove 45.9% Approve)

Post COVID-19 low point - June 30, 2020: -16.1% Net Approval (56.4% Disapprove 40.3% Approve)

Election Day approval rating - November 03, 2020: -8.0% Net Approval (52.6% Disapprove 44.6% Approve)

If you get it right you can get a cookie. 🍪

Sorry, my browser doesn't accept cookies.

Seriously, Rasmussen (which is clearly making up numbers) will keep it from dropping below -18 or so.

This aged quite well.

The same as Bush W as he left office

Bush W. when he left office was -34.5%

He's tracking close to Carter with 538. Hopefully much lower still.

Carter was -21.3%

The same as Bush W as he left office

Bush W. when he left office was -34.5%

He's tracking close to Carter with 538. Hopefully much lower still.

Carter was -21.3%

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Right around 50%

Well, Atlas never forgets, Red, so time will tell.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Grumps, I think you may have misunderstood the question.  It asked what Trump's approval rating would be on his last day in office, i.e. today -- not what it might eventually be after he's been out of office for a while.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Grumps, I think you may have misunderstood the question.  It asked what Trump's approval rating would be on his last day in office, i.e. today -- not what it might eventually be after he's been out of office for a while.

Okay Okay, yeah thanks.  I was predicting what it will rise to because, as I mentioned earlier, they tend to rise after they've been gone a while.  Thanks for the clarification on the question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Jan. 16-19, 1100 adults including 990 RV

Adults:

Approve 30 (-11)
Disapprove 66 (+10)

RV:

Approve 29
Disapprove 67

This is Trump's worst-ever showing, by far, in this poll.

[John Dule]

Cool. What do I win?