How low can it go? - Predict Trump's net approval rating when he leaves office

[Crumpets]

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC News/Washington Post, Jan. 10-13, 1002 adults (change from October)

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 60 (+6)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 52 (+7)

Trump is now at 39.1/57.0 (net -17.9) in the 538 average.  He's within striking distance of the worst net of his term.

71% think Trump bears at least some responsibility for the attack on the Capitol.  54% think he should be charged with inciting a riot.

Comparison of final approval ratings:

Trump 38
Obama 60
GW Bush 33
Clinton 65
GHW Bush 56

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1350102667067076614

58.0% disapproval is the highest of Trump's tenure.  His approval has been a bit lower (the extreme is 36.4% on 12/16/2017).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1350099367194222593
He's hit bush levels if this poll bears out.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1350099367194222593
He's hit bush levels if this poll bears out.

29% oh my god

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1350099367194222593
He's hit bush levels if this poll bears out.

29% oh my god

The dam is finally broken, all it took was the seads he sowed to bear fruit.

[soundchaser]

Rasmussen continues to live in an alternate reality.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

One of the stickiest indicators over the course of the entire Trump administration has been his approval ratings but it seems the dam has finally broken. to those sceptical of polls after their failure in the election, remember these are tracking polls meaning that even if they are dem biased they do show a significant erosion in his support. He's finally hit George Bush levels of disapproval too late for the democrats to gain anything from it.

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1350107320227921926

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen continues to live in an alternate reality.

I don't think there's any way to dispute now that Rasmussen makes up their numbers.

[Torie]

Trump is tanking with Pubs now.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/01/15/biden-begins-presidency-with-positive-ratings-trump-departs-with-lowest-ever-job-mark/pp_2021-01-14_biden-trump-views_00-07/

[Crumpets]

I assume most of the Republicans who previously approved and now don't are from the business wing and can see the January 6th attack for what it was. I wonder if there might be a portion who are mad that he's "given up the fight" to keep the commies out of power, though.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hopefully, this will allow the Republicans to drop the dead weight quickly and remain united going into the midterms.

[compucomp]

As much as it pleases me to see Trump's approval rating tank, I think right now is a prime time for the "shy Trump supporter effect" since at this moment one could think that expressing support for Trump would result in the feds bashing down your door.

[Alben Barkley]

Hopefully, this will allow the Republicans to drop the dead weight quickly and remain united going into the midterms.

I hope it encourages them to convict him. Surely they must know that if he runs again as their nominee, he’s screwed?

[Tekken_Guy]

Hopefully, this will allow the Republicans to drop the dead weight quickly and remain united going into the midterms.

I hope it encourages them to convict him. Surely they must know that if he runs again as their nominee, he’s screwed?

I agree. I think a quick conviction will leave the Republicans who supported impeachment less having to worry about a political backlash.

[HisGrace]

He's at 39% on RCP and if he keeps dropping at the same rate he'll be at 36%. Would be cool to see it drop a little lower more into W territory for a real repudiation of him as he leaves office. Looks like the door is hitting him on the way out.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1350099367194222593
He's hit bush levels if this poll bears out.

Maybe this will teach people to stop electing Republicans who are bound to ruin the country and end their terms extremely unpopular.

You know, there’s an old saying in Delaware — I know it’s in Kentucky, probably in Delaware — that says “Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me... you can’t get fooled again.”

[Calthrina950]

If only these poll numbers had fully manifested themselves last November, Trump would have been shellacked rather than coming within three states (and ~45,000 votes) of winning reelection.

[afleitch]

Just 1.4 shy of Carter with 538 now.

[HisGrace]

If only these poll numbers had fully manifested themselves last November, Trump would have been shellacked rather than coming within three states (and ~45,000 votes) of winning reelection.

This is clearly in response to his election denialism and especially the riots.

[Calthrina950]

If only these poll numbers had fully manifested themselves last November, Trump would have been shellacked rather than coming within three states (and ~45,000 votes) of winning reelection.

This is clearly in response to his election denialism and especially the riots.

I understand that. What I'm saying is that this is the kind of rebuke which Trump should have received at the polls last November.

[Badger]

Rasmussen continues to live in an alternate reality.

I don't think there's any way to dispute now that Rasmussen makes up their numbers.

Much as I want to believe this, and there is at least some tangible basis for belief, let's not forget the 2016 and 2020 polls note Ali under estimating Trump's support. As someone succinctly put it, a Swing Vote wine mom in Suburban Charlotte was more likely to answer and respond to a pollsters call then Cletus from rural Appalachia.

Still, Trump is still clearly hemorrhaging support. How low will it go? That honestly depends primarily on to what degree heat attempts shady s*** with pardons. Note I didn't say if he tries it, but rather to what degree. Will he limit it to merely himself and his family as is almost guaranteed to occur, or will he extend it two cronies and sink offense or, worst of all, most or all of the capitol rioters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen continues to live in an alternate reality.

I don't think there's any way to dispute now that Rasmussen makes up their numbers.

Much as I want to believe this, and there is at least some tangible basis for belief, let's not forget the 2016 and 2020 polls note Ali under estimating Trump's support. As someone succinctly put it, a Swing Vote wine mom in Suburban Charlotte was more likely to answer and respond to a pollsters call then Cletus from rural Appalachia.

Still, Trump is still clearly hemorrhaging support. How low will it go? That honestly depends primarily on to what degree heat attempts shady s*** with pardons. Note I didn't say if he tries it, but rather to what degree. Will he limit it to merely himself and his family as is almost guaranteed to occur, or will he extend it two cronies and sink offense or, worst of all, most or all of the capitol rioters?

This is the key to it.  Every other poll shows Trump hemorrhaging support badly in the last week or so.  Rasmussen since the beginning of last week:

1/4: No polling (New Year's)
1/5: 47/51
1/6: 47/51
1/7: 49/50
1/8: 48/50

1/11: 48/51
1/12: 49/50
1/13: 46/53
1/14: No poll, technical issue
1/15: 48/52

Even if Rasmussen is picking up Trump voters that everyone else misses, it is unrealistic that they do not show a decline for Trump when literally every other poll is showing a steep one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another tidbit from the Pew poll:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1350217421538398210

[Roll Roons]

Imagine being underwater by 8 points with the base.