Is Georgia gone for good for the GOP?

[Chips]

I believe Republicans narrowly win it back in 2024 and will win the state in 2028 along with the entire election. After that, It may become solidly blue but IDK.

[Red Wall]

No. They still have 2 competitive cycles there.

But they have a long term problem: the state is too inelastic and current demographic trends favor dems. Rurals in GA are more Republican than rurals in NC/VA. One thing is making rural NC voters vote like rural VA voters and subsequently make them vote like rural GA voters today (by the way that's enough to keep NC R easily but not flip VA). The other is to make rural GA voters vote like rural AL or MS, possible but it takes a larger effort. One thing is going.from 60 to 70 or even 70 to 80. Other is going from 80 to 90.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Biden won it barely, and Trump was a poor fit for the white suburbs.

I’d honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the way of North Carolina instead of Virginia.

but what about Loeffler and Perdue?


By the looks of it, Gwinnett and Cobb are going by the way of Loudoun and Prince William. I would say that Georgia maybe is trending like Virginia.

Democrats did well in NC in 2008/2006 but haven't done well since. It's unlikely, but possible that the same thing could happen in GA.

[Lincoln Republican]

That would be nice, but no, Georgia is not lost for good to the GOP.

But thank you Georgia for taking the bold step and electing 2 Democratic Senators.

This will make a world of change for the good for the new Biden administration.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No. But Dems will win the Gov/SOS/Senate races in 2022.

It's going to take a while for Dems to get these low profile down ballot seats.

[Typhoon2000]

Georgia is probably be a new bellwether state where one year it’s a Republican and the other a Democrat.

[TodayJunior]

Yes. It’s going the way of Virginia. I’d be surprised if Kemp held on next year. To me, what makes Georgia different from North Carolina is the amount of ticket splitting (or lack thereof) that happens like we saw in NC where the governor was re-elected but voted for tillis and trump. With Georgia, you saw Dems break through after a 20-year dry spell with Biden winning by 0.3% and both Dem candidates win by 2% shortly after, and that was before January 6. Gun to my head: kemp loses by 3, and the unnamed Republican nominee in 2024 loses by 5. Atlanta is becoming LA East (mainly due to film), suburbs are growing, getting younger, and picking up steam darting leftwards.

The other side to that is really the indictment of state GOP. They got fat, happy, and complacent after winning so many state wide races year after year they failed to really have a strong grassroots and GOTV effort (contrast this with the FL-GOP....say what you will they’re strong at getting out their voters after being a swing state for 30 years) and it allowed the Dems to quietly build up enough grassroots to eventually overtake them. It may be too late for the GOP to catch up. Not to mention, the huge divide between the establishment and maga wings in the state....of course Georgia is not the only place where they’re having noticeable problems with this phenomenon.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's funny, the responses here sound almost exactly like what people said about Virginia in 2009-2015. 

Yes, Republicans can still win it, and I expect they'll win statewide a few more times (which Republicans did in Virginia after Obama's 2008 win too btw), but it's clearly trending like Virginia.

- Rising urban and near in suburban population?  check
- Rising minority population?  check
- Rising college educated population concentrated in a large metro?  check
- Declining rural population (this is key)?  check

The other thing that makes GA more like VA than NC is that Democrats don't have much room to fall in a lot of rural areas.  If you just quickly glance at many of the rural counties in Georgia you can tell that Republicans are already getting the overwhelming share of rural white voters there.  That wasn't the case in NC (though it is becoming more the case).  So the GOP had some new rural votes to offset its weakness in urban areas.  That's not the case in GA.  Unlike NC, where the GOP has been able to hold the state while losing ground in populous metro suburbs, the GOP can't do that in GA, they actually need to win back suburban voters.

[SevenEleven]

Chiming in to laugh at anyone making comparisons to "the nation" as if it has been or ever will be materially meaningful.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It will most likely go the way of VA in the medium term, but trends amongst black and Hispanic voters could slow that down and there is an outside chance that boomer migration patterns change in an electorally significant way if/when the FL pension crisis blows up.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

The trend lines are horrendous for the GOP.  I think the midterms will be the last time it will be truly competitive, and it will be quasi-competitive in 2024 (still right of NPV but definitely left of tipping point)

It will be noncompetitive in 2028.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, Wisconsin was gone for good too after it voted Republican once.

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Biden won it barely, and Trump was a poor fit for the white suburbs.

I’d honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the way of North Carolina instead of Virginia.

I agree with this take