Did Gideon do anything specifically bad? I agree underperforming Biden by 20 points is a huge shock, but did she do something wrong or is Collin's brand strength bigger than we thought?
I think it's a mix of both. A lot of Democrats underestimated the brand Collins has here. While some of her voters were turned off by the Kavanaugh vote, clearly many were not. Just because voters in California, Massachusetts, New York etc. were ratio'ing her all over social media, that doesn't mean crap because those aren't her constituents. Collins has been applauded here for bringing $ and jobs to Bath Iron Works and the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. She also touted her involvement with the PPE loans at every turn. The economy and jobs are going to win over the swing voters here, a state that is one of the oldest in the nation, one that is very rural, one that is a bit disconnected geographically, and one that has lost many paper mills and jobs in other industries. I never understand why Democrats are so timid to make the economic argument.
Gideon barely talked about what SHE would do in regards to the economy and jobs and that was a huge misstep for her. I didn't see many ads about healthcare either. Most ads I saw were anti-Collins ads and when Gideon did have an ad focusing on herself, it was usually a fluffy attempt to try to get you to like and trust her that didn't tell you anything about her or what she would do.
Case in point, this ad (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2oEpNhtdeU) about working across the aisle was one of the ads I saw the most on tv. That ad tells me nothing about Gideon, what policies she believes in, or even HOW she worked across the aisle in the State House and on what laws. I had a coworker tell me in response to this ad: "yeah, she had this person sit here, this one sit there, and then had them sit at home because the State House hasn't done anything since March." Complete joke of an ad that reeks of being created by Washington D.C. consultants who think they know what Mainers want to see (but they don't have a clue). They're going to portray Gideon as bipartisan but don't include ANY legislative examples/accomplishments and instead talk about sitting together like those adults are in kindergarten? What the heck?
People thought Gideon would be strong solely because she was A) Speaker of the Maine House and B) Because she raised a lot of money. But Maine is a relatively cheap state. Retail politics is important here. I never had any canvassers stop by my place. The ground game was nonexistent. Money was wasted on ads that weren't even effective (people would GROAN when they saw another Gideon ad).
Further, people severely underestimate the need to be smart about the candidate they choose in these races. Wealthy millionaire, Portland area, latte liberals with lawyer husbands who live in Better Homes and Gardens style houses who aren't Maine grown and don't show that they understand the needs of struggling Mainers don't make for strong statewide candidates. They just don't. Our last two Dem. governors Baldacci and Mills- both from the second district. Jared Golden- second district and a strong candidate. Look at past electoral successes and go from there.
