Most likely Senate tipping point in 2022

[Roll Roons]

I listed the seven seats that I think will be the most hotly contested, although it's certainly possible that others come into play.

Tipping points in the past few cycles:
2020: Georgia regular
2018: Indiana
2016: Wisconsin
2014: Georgia
2012: Virginia
2010: California

[UncleSam]

Gonna go with GA here. I think AZ, NC, and WI will be to the right of it while PA, NV, and NH will be to the left. If my math works out that makes GA the tipping point.

[TML]

I wouldn’t place too much confidence in predicting this at this time. The last several election cycles each saw the actual tipping point differ from the most likely forecasted tipping point:

2016 - Forecasted: NC; Actual: WI
2018 - Forecasted: TX or TN; Actual: IN
2020 - Forecasted: ME; Actual: GA (regular)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin, D's only need WI, PA and GA now they solidified their Majority, as D's look to add Statehood

[Xing]

I’ll say AZ, though I could see it being either NH or PA as well. GA/NV will be to the left of the tipping point, NC/WI will be to the right.

I think that 46 seats are nearly safe for the Democrats, and the seven competitive races would go Democratic in the following order:

47. Nevada
48. Georgia
49. Arizona -> Tipping point for Republicans
50. Pennsylvania -> Tipping point for Democrats
51. New Hampshire
52. Wisconsin
53. North Carolina

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ll say AZ, though I could see it being either NH or PA as well. GA/NV will be to the left of the tipping point, NC/WI will be to the right.

You know Cook had Wzi Gov as Lean R as polls indicated Evers was gonna take it, that's a side note that should be considered when he has WI Sen Leaning R, everyone knows D's are targeting WI, PA and GA

[Orser67]

I think it'll be one of AZ, GA, and PA. I'd guess GA as of right now.

Democratic seat #...

47. New Hampshire
48. Nevada

49. Arizona
50. Georgia
51. Pennsylvania

52. Wisconsin
53. North Carolina

54. Florida
55. Alaska

[MT Treasurer]

Almost certainly one of AZ/NH/PA, but leaning toward AZ right now (with Kelly losing). NV and NC are possible but definitely less likely.

46 seats are likely/safe D

Democratic seat #...

47. Georgia

48. Nevada
49. Pennsylvania
50. Arizona
51. New Hampshire

52. North Carolina
53. Wisconsin

54. Alaska
55. Florida
56. Missouri

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

In 2014 the tipping-point was Georgia.
In 2020 it was also Georgia.

In 2016 the tipping-point was Wisconsin.
Thus, in 2022 the tipping point must be Wisconsin.