Titanium red states that will probably become swing states in 50 years

[Calthrina950]

Utah, Alaska, and Kansas are three states where Republicans need to be mindful in the coming years. All three states trended towards Biden, are experiencing rapid population growth and noticeable demographic changes (i.e. becoming younger and more diverse), and contain metropolitan regions that could power a future Democratic victory (i.e. Salt Lake City, Anchorage, and Wichita/Lawrence/Overland Park). I wouldn't be surprised if all three are competitive swing states within the next 20 years, much less 50.

I’m pretty sure Utah swung and trended R in 2020.

That was because Trump gained the majority of the McMullin vote from 2016, although a substantial minority went to Biden. But Trump's performance in Utah last year was still significantly worse than how most Republicans have done there since the 1970s. Trump is the first Republican presidential nominee since Bob Dole in 1996, and one of only two since Goldwater in 1964 (Dole being the other), to never reach the 60% mark there. And Biden posted the best performance for a Democrat since Johnson in 1964. Moreover, the growth of the Salt Lake City metropolitan area poses potential problems for Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

The party coalitions will probably be drastically different in 50 years, so it’s impossible to say. 49 years ago, Richard Nixon carried 49 states in a national landslide including winning Los Angeles County, Cook County, and all 5 NYC boroughs.

Just as FYI -- Nixon came close, but he didn't carry the 5 boroughs. He definitely carried Staten Island and Queens. Maybe Brooklyn. But he for sure didn't carry Manhattan & Bronx.

The last GOP presidential candidate to carry NYC was Keep Cool with Coolidge

Nixon lost Brooklyn by 2%, the last time that a Republican has come within single digits there, or even obtained more than 40% of the vote. McGovern got 66% in Manhattan and 55% in the Bronx.

[Roll Roons]

I'm starting to think Nebraska is a possibility. The rural counties are losing population and probably close to maxed out for Republicans, while the three biggest (Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy) are growing at a solid pace. Collectively, those three already comprise around 55% of the state's population, and all of them swung left by big margins in 2020.