SC-GOV 2022 Megathread: Cunningham IN

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Jaime Harrison endorsement?
https://twitter.com/harrisonjaime/status/1400440926644981769

Doesn’t seem like it, just bringing light to her if anything. I’d be surprised if he endorses anyone

[beesley]

Doesn’t seem like it, just bringing light to her if anything. I’d be surprised if he endorses anyone

It would be pretty unprofessional given his position, I would've thought.

[Terlylane]

Doesn’t seem like it, just bringing light to her if anything. I’d be surprised if he endorses anyone

It would be pretty unprofessional given his position, I would've thought.

Tom Perez endorsed Cuomo, so it's possible.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Not from SC, just endorsing candidates. Cunningham for SC gov

[patzer]

Amazed I haven’t seen more discussion of this race.

Last Trafalgar poll a few weeks ago was McMaster 51%–Cunningham 43%; the traditional wisdom is that Trafalgar nails the R vote share but not the D one, which makes it 51-49.

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I would not be surprised if it isn't competitive in the end. I remember Jaime Harrison polling ahead of Graham in 2020 only to see him lose by over 10%.

The issue is SC is a pretty inelastic state with a 55-44 Republican lean and it doesn't seem like that can be broken. Joe may do better because of the abortion issue, but I don't think it will be enough to get him over the finish line.

[Calthrina950]

I would not be surprised if it isn't competitive in the end. I remember Jaime Harrison polling ahead of Graham in 2020 only to see him lose by over 10%.

The issue is SC is a pretty inelastic state with a 55-44 Republican lean and it doesn't seem like that can be broken. Joe may do better because of the abortion issue, but I don't think it will be enough to get him over the finish line.

I'm expecting Cunningham to lose by high single digits, ~53-45% or 53-46%. South Carolina remains elusive for Democrats and is unwinnable for them, in contrast to Georgia and North Carolina.

[MT Treasurer]

Amazed I haven’t seen more discussion of this race.

Last Trafalgar poll a few weeks ago was McMaster 51%–Cunningham 43%; the traditional wisdom is that Trafalgar nails the R vote share but not the D one, which makes it 51-49.

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

That traditional wisdom is wrong.

[Schiff for Senate]

In practice this race is Safe R, with or without Cunningham.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

No. This state is getting whiter and it's not D-friendly whites either. No Democrat will win this state for the next century.

[Calthrina950]

Amazed I haven’t seen more discussion of this race.

Last Trafalgar poll a few weeks ago was McMaster 51%–Cunningham 43%; the traditional wisdom is that Trafalgar nails the R vote share but not the D one, which makes it 51-49.

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

That traditional wisdom is wrong.

What is the "actual" wisdom about Trafalgar?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

No. This state is getting whiter and it's not D-friendly whites either. No Democrat will win this state for the next century.

We're seeing the same thing play out in SC as is around many states. A lot of the rural county democrats are moving to the GOP and the urban areas like Charleston, Columbia, etc are trending to the Democrats. Even Greenville County trended somewhat left in 2020 even though Trump still won big there.

[Calthrina950]

Is this race starting to become actually competitive given the shifting national environment and Cunningham’s strength?

No. This state is getting whiter and it's not D-friendly whites either. No Democrat will win this state for the next century.

We're seeing the same thing play out in SC as is around many states. A lot of the rural county democrats are moving to the GOP and the urban areas like Charleston, Columbia, etc are trending to the Democrats. Even Greenville County trended somewhat left in 2020 even though Trump still won big there.

There are five counties in South Carolina that voted for Obama twice and Trump twice - Barnwell, Colleton, Calhoun, Chester, and McCormick. And Biden generally did worse than Obama throughout the rural parts of the state, while improving in Charleston, Columbia, and Greenville as you noted above. This is just a further manifestation of the widening urban-rural divide between the two parties.

[SCNCmod]

Cunningham's recent ad- had the right intention, but was horribly executed. (his prior ads had a good production quality and made the most of the fact that he is naturally telegenic).  "Time to Win" is sloppy in the message and in Joe's overall presentation.  Hopefully they will at least pull this ad and revamp it or something.

"Time to Win" Ad Video link:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPKIeNvk_hM

[SCNCmod]

BTW- here are Cunningham's Prior 2 Ads:

"Something Different": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1HQ4tNfDzc

"No Exception":  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8KYa754Wiw

[Hope For A New Era]

Cunningham's recent ad- had the right intention, but was horribly executed. (his prior ads had a good production quality and made the most of the fact that he is naturally telegenic).  "Time to Win" is sloppy in the message and in Joe's overall presentation.  Hopefully they will at least pull this ad and revamp it or something.

"Time to Win" Ad Video link:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPKIeNvk_hM

Seems fine to me? Maybe a bit messy, but certainly not "horribly executed."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't poll this race ever again

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1585424095398985728

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1585424095398985728

He’s extra dumb cause it’s already in the constitution