How would the results have been seen if the national polls were right?

[Pericles]

So Biden led by 8.4% (538 average) but only won by 4.4%. Here’s what the results kts would hage been if Biden and the Democrats won all the races they lost by 4% or less. Biden wins 350 EV-188, winning FL and NC (FL by just 0.65%), while losing TX by just under 2 points and IA and OH by around 4 points. The Senate is 49-49-2 runoffs with Ossoff falling just short of a majority, it would almost certainly end up with 51 Dems (NC flips), while the House would have 235 Dems (D+7.1% in the popular vote). With redistricting, on that uniform swing Dems would have won a trifecta in MN, maybe stopped a Republican one in NH. TX House would be 75-75, even as Dems only gain TX-24 (TX-23 seems like a bare Republican win). Other redistricting targets like NC would likely not be achieved. So the Senate would seem like a letdown for Dems, and the House still would be an underperformance relative to expectations. It did seem weird that Dens were supposed to hold steady or even lose support in the House PV while improving in almost all competitive seats. This would have been called much earlier for President so maybe it is seen as a blue wave. Or maybe it would have been seen, semi inaccurately, as a clear Biden win but still overall an underperformance for Democrats. This hypothetical of course doesn’t take into account that maybe in a Biden +8.4% scenario the swing would have been bigger or smaller down ballot and in different states, that is pretty hard to model. Maybe you could have a try at that, but the uniform swing is still probably a good guide. What are your thoughts?

[It's Time.]

Hypothetical 2016-2020 swing map if the PV was 4% more democratic in terms of margin: https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=6brs