Third term elections with no 22nd Amendment
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  Third term elections with no 22nd Amendment
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Asenath Waite
Fulbright DNC
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« on: January 07, 2021, 10:52:41 PM »

In a world without the 22nd Amendment how do Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, Bush and Obama do in their respective bids for a third term?
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2021, 11:27:38 PM »

I think all except Dubya could've won again.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2021, 12:57:56 AM »

I think Obama would have won in 2016, but I think it would have been considerably closer than people might have expected.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2021, 12:45:19 PM »

The first three would win comfortably, Obama would win narrowly, and Bush would’ve lost worse than McCain. My question is, would Reagan have done worse than Bush in 88?
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2021, 04:34:17 PM »

I think Obama would have won in 2016, but I think it would have been considerably closer than people might have expected.

It would just be the 278 #freiwal map.
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dw93
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« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2021, 04:07:43 PM »

2016 with Obama running*:



2008 with Bush running (though I doubt he would):



2000 with Clinton running:



1988 with Reagan:



*=Accidentally gave ME 1 to Trump instead of 2.


I think Obama and Reagan could both lose to the right candidate, Obama had pretty lackluster approvals until the very end of his term and I don't think he'd have seen the improvement he saw if he were to run again. As for Reagan, he was noticeably frail at the end and I thus factored it in the result. Without the frailty, Reagan likely would've met or exceeded Bush's real life result against someone like Dukakis.

I think Bush would've declined even if he were able to run. He had a tough Presidency and he seemed pretty eager to go back to Texas. I just made a map for the hell of it.

Clinton would've beaten just about any potential Republican candidate, scandal or not. I think someone like McCain would've given him a genuine run for his money and made it close, but I think in the end Clinton would've eeked it out. Regardless, he'd have fared worse electorally than he did in 1992 or 1996, but ironically might've gotten 50+% of the popular vote, something he never did, with the absence of Perot.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2021, 06:09:49 PM »

If primary battles can be brought up here, Bush in 2008 might have faced a similar situation to 1952 & 1968: a low-enough approval rating, and sufficient discontent even within his own party, that he'd likely get a sufficiently poor result in New Hampshire or Iowa that would either force him out of the race entirely (as it did for Johnson & Truman), or damage him sufficiently to ensure a heavy defeat in the fall.

With the exception of 2020, the defeat of every incumbent since the Second World War has been presaged by a stronger-than-usual primary challenge, and 2008's would have been more serious than most.
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