What is the most surprising County result in the 2020 Presidential Election?

[CookieDamage]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Hudson county?

Like Santa Clara and Los Angeles, it's a big (population wise) urban metro county that's less than 50% Non-Hispanic White and has a lot of Latinos and Asians. The big R swings in those counties confirmed my fears about Hispanic/Asian immigrant voters swinging right.

I would've been more okay with this if someone like Rubio were president, and the GOP had already shifted left on healthcare and climate policy. But I'm also kinda invested in the narrative that Latinos and Asians are aligned with black and indigenous communities in the fight against structural racism and white supremacy- and Latinos/Asians swinging R while black voters don't undermines that.

Well, we'll have to see what future elections look like when it comes to how Democratic Latinos and Asians will continue to be or not to be. However, I'd caution against Latinos and Asians fostering solidarity with black and indigenous people. Latinos and Asians can be as viciously anti-black and racist as whites are. And of course other issues as well, including many third- and fourth-gen latinos seeing themselves as whites and moving towards republicans, conservative and older latinos and asians being brought out to vote, disinfo about socialism and BLM etc.

However, didn't Ossoff and Warnock radically improve their numbers with Latinos in the run-off? Like their numbers were anemic in the general but great in the runoff and I believe their decision to knock on doors was a big part.

An important thing to consider when it comes to households where English is not the dominant language is outreach. If Dems don't reach out to other-language households, republicans will, through traditional means or disinformation campaigns. While many of these people may be traditionally conservative, they are not white nationalists, but outreach must take place to keep them in the Dem column.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Well, we'll have to see what future elections look like when it comes to how Democratic Latinos and Asians will continue to be or not to be. However, I'd caution against Latinos and Asians fostering solidarity with black and indigenous people. Latinos and Asians can be as viciously anti-black and racist as whites are. And of course other issues as well, including many third- and fourth-gen latinos seeing themselves as whites and moving towards republicans, conservative and older latinos and asians being brought out to vote, disinfo about socialism and BLM etc.

Oh I'm well aware of anti-black prejudice among Latinos and Asians. I don't think the "cross-racial solidarity coalition against white supremacy" narrative accurately describes nonwhite voting behavior. IMO it's mostly a feel-good story to make cosmopolitan Dems feel better about being the party of #diversity and #inclusion. Still, seeing 45 do so well among certain immigrant voter blocs felt in many ways like a moral defeat against his demogoguery, despite the ultimate D victory.

However, didn't Ossoff and Warnock radically improve their numbers with Latinos in the run-off? Like their numbers were anemic in the general but great in the runoff and I believe their decision to knock on doors was a big part.

An important thing to consider when it comes to households where English is not the dominant language is outreach. If Dems don't reach out to other-language households, republicans will, through traditional means or disinformation campaigns. While many of these people may be traditionally conservative, they are not white nationalists, but outreach must take place to keep them in the Dem column.

Agreed with all of this. Non-English language outreach is key in an increasingly foreign-born and multicultural America.

[It's Time.]

Miami Dade for the reasons stated above.  It has a massive population.  Random small or even mid-size counties can have big swings based on turnout, people moving in to the district, etc.  But more than 1.1 million people voted in Miami Dade.  Also, even though there are unique demographic circumstances there, it went against the national trendilne of big cities/inner suburbs continuing to shift left. 

I am still of the opinion that a chunk of the shift was due to the tourism industry being decimated by covid lockdowns.  I don't think these numbers are sustainable for the GOP going forward.

Most big cities shifted right, their suburbs shifted to the left though.

mostly heavily non-white cities. for example, NYC/LA/Chicago/Miami swung hard to the right, while Whiter cities like the Twin Cities or Portland swung hard left.

[EastOfEden]

I am still of the opinion that a chunk of the shift was due to the tourism industry being decimated by covid lockdowns.  I don't think these numbers are sustainable for the GOP going forward.

But what about the other "touristy" areas that moved left? Leelanau, Door, Sauk, Florida Panhandle, etc

Seems like the right-shift only appears when you have a combination of Hispanics + tourism.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

I am still of the opinion that a chunk of the shift was due to the tourism industry being decimated by covid lockdowns.  I don't think these numbers are sustainable for the GOP going forward.

But what about the other "touristy" areas that moved left? Leelanau, Door, Sauk, Florida Panhandle, etc

Seems like the right-shift only appears when you have a combination of Hispanics + tourism.

I think the tourism R shift really only occurred in places that draw in bigger/more cosmopolitan crowds, like resorts, theme parks, casinos, etc. This explains why Hawaii and Vegas shifted to the right, but smaller counties that your average person might not know about did not.

[Thunder98]

Travis County took the reign as the most Dem county in Texas in 2020.

[Interlocutor]

However, didn't Ossoff and Warnock radically improve their numbers with Latinos in the run-off? Like their numbers were anemic in the general but great in the runoff and I believe their decision to knock on doors was a big part.

An important thing to consider when it comes to households where English is not the dominant language is outreach. If Dems don't reach out to other-language households, republicans will, through traditional means or disinformation campaigns. While many of these people may be traditionally conservative, they are not white nationalists, but outreach must take place to keep them in the Dem column.

However, didn't Ossoff and Warnock radically improve their numbers with Latinos in the run-off? Like their numbers were anemic in the general but great in the runoff and I believe their decision to knock on doors was a big part.

An important thing to consider when it comes to households where English is not the dominant language is outreach. If Dems don't reach out to other-language households, republicans will, through traditional means or disinformation campaigns. While many of these people may be traditionally conservative, they are not white nationalists, but outreach must take place to keep them in the Dem column.

This is why I'm more optimistic about Dem strength with Latinos than I was two months ago.

If Dems put the work into outreach and make them feel like an integral part of the electorate, it can pay off greatly like in Georgia.

The big-tent Dems didn't even try in 2020. They just said "take one for the team" and assumed Latinos wouldn't dare vote for Trump.