What is the most surprising County result in the 2020 Presidential Election?

[It's Time.]

Zapata.

[bagelman]

deep sigh

Mahoning

[Kuumo]

Inyo.

[seeking mystical annihilation]

Of those not mentioned yet, Talbot. There were plenty of counties on the Eastern Shore that I imagined would flip before the one where baby Discovolante left the womb.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

[VPH]

Unmentioned one is Reeves County, TX.

[jman123]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Hudson county?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Miami-Dade, it's just so rare to see such a large, diverse, county swing so hard against the nation overall

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Hudson county?

Like Santa Clara and Los Angeles, it's a big (population wise) urban metro county that's less than 50% Non-Hispanic White and has a lot of Latinos and Asians. The big R swings in those counties confirmed my fears about Hispanic/Asian immigrant voters swinging right.

I would've been more okay with this if someone like Rubio were president, and the GOP had already shifted left on healthcare and climate policy. But I'm also kinda invested in the narrative that Latinos and Asians are aligned with black and indigenous communities in the fight against structural racism and white supremacy- and Latinos/Asians swinging R while black voters don't undermines that.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Hudson county?

Like Santa Clara and Los Angeles, it's a big (population wise) urban metro county that's less than 50% Non-Hispanic White and has a lot of Latinos and Asians. The big R swings in those counties confirmed my fears about Hispanic/Asian immigrant voters swinging right.

I would've been more okay with this if someone like Rubio were president, and the GOP had already shifted left on healthcare and climate policy. But I'm also kinda invested in the narrative that Latinos and Asians are aligned with black and indigenous communities in the fight against structural racism and white supremacy- and Latinos/Asians swinging R while black voters don't undermines that.

Trump only improved in LA and Santa Clara counties compared to his anemic 2016 numbers. Both Romney and McCain did better in them, so it's not actually that impressive in the grand scope of things. He also only managed to exactly match McCain's 2008 performance in Hudson County.

None of these come even close to qualifying as "most surprising."

[UncleSam]

Miami-Dade is clearly the most consequential.

Zapata is similar.

Not really any super surprising D trends since those were more uniform and less dramatic.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

Of those not mentioned yet, Talbot. There were plenty of counties on the Eastern Shore that I imagined would flip before the one where baby Discovolante left the womb.

Freedom Birth!

[Interlocutor]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Los Angeles? Because Trump actually improved there?

He had the 2nd worst showing for a Republican (Not counting 1912) and only bested his 2016 support. While Biden was the 2nd Democrat & 3rd candidate to ever get 70% there

[The Night Owlditor]

Inyo.

I was going to nominate Inyo as well. Random rural county and flipped before Placer, which is much more urban/suburban. Wonder what's going on down there...?

[Non Swing Voter]

Miami Dade for the reasons stated above.  It has a massive population.  Random small or even mid-size counties can have big swings based on turnout, people moving in to the district, etc.  But more than 1.1 million people voted in Miami Dade.  Also, even though there are unique demographic circumstances there, it went against the national trendilne of big cities/inner suburbs continuing to shift left. 

I am still of the opinion that a chunk of the shift was due to the tourism industry being decimated by covid lockdowns.  I don't think these numbers are sustainable for the GOP going forward.

[Horus]

Inyo.

I was going to nominate Inyo as well. Random rural county and flipped before Placer, which is much more urban/suburban. Wonder what's going on down there...?

High percentage of national park workers maybe? I should think park rangers are one of the most anti Trump law enforcement demographics too.

My cousin and his wife are park rangers and are super excited for Haaland to take over Interior.

[politicallefty]

deep sigh

Mahoning

Agreed. It was weak for Hillary, but I expected Biden to claw back a lot of Obama/Trump supporters. To see him do worse than Hillary was nothing less than completely stunning to me. I don't think Ohio is the next Missouri, but it is definitely right-of-centre for now unless something dramatic can happen in suburban Columbus (and to a lesser extent, suburban Cincinnati).

[Sbane]

Unmentioned one is Reeves County, TX.

That county is right in the middle of the oil patch and people there are pro oil and gas so they voted Republican.

[VPH]

Unmentioned one is Reeves County, TX.

That county is right in the middle of the oil patch and people there are pro oil and gas so they voted Republican.

Less the fact that it flipped for me than the margin it ended up GOP by.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

Trump only improved in LA and Santa Clara counties compared to his anemic 2016 numbers. Both Romney and McCain did better in them, so it's not actually that impressive in the grand scope of things. He also only managed to exactly match McCain's 2008 performance in Hudson County.

None of these come even close to qualifying as "most surprising."

I figured they were more surprising than say Osceola FL because of how big the counties are.

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Los Angeles? Because Trump actually improved there?

He had the 2nd worst showing for a Republican (Not counting 1912) and only bested his 2016 support. While Biden was the 2nd Democrat & 3rd candidate to ever get 70% there

It’s not the fact that he improved there per se, it’s how much he improved by, and how many voters he gained.

[lfromnj]

Miami Dade for the reasons stated above.  It has a massive population.  Random small or even mid-size counties can have big swings based on turnout, people moving in to the district, etc.  But more than 1.1 million people voted in Miami Dade.  Also, even though there are unique demographic circumstances there, it went against the national trendilne of big cities/inner suburbs continuing to shift left. 

I am still of the opinion that a chunk of the shift was due to the tourism industry being decimated by covid lockdowns.  I don't think these numbers are sustainable for the GOP going forward.

Most big cities shifted right, their suburbs shifted to the left though.

[CookieDamage]

Kinda surprising that Hunterdon and Monmouth were as close as they were

[Interlocutor]

Excluding Miami-Dade FL and all others previously mentioned, a three-way tie between Hudson NJ, Los Angeles CA, and Santa Clara CA.

Why Los Angeles? Because Trump actually improved there?

He had the 2nd worst showing for a Republican (Not counting 1912) and only bested his 2016 support. While Biden was the 2nd Democrat & 3rd candidate to ever get 70% there

It’s not the fact that he improved there per se, it’s how much he improved by, and how many voters he gained.

Even still, it was a historically bad performance for Trump and a historically great performance for Biden

[It's Time.]

Miami Dade for the reasons stated above.  It has a massive population.  Random small or even mid-size counties can have big swings based on turnout, people moving in to the district, etc.  But more than 1.1 million people voted in Miami Dade.  Also, even though there are unique demographic circumstances there, it went against the national trendilne of big cities/inner suburbs continuing to shift left. 

I am still of the opinion that a chunk of the shift was due to the tourism industry being decimated by covid lockdowns.  I don't think these numbers are sustainable for the GOP going forward.

I agree with this part.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Inyo.

I was going to nominate Inyo as well. Random rural county and flipped before Placer, which is much more urban/suburban. Wonder what's going on down there...?

High percentage of national park workers maybe? I should think park rangers are one of the most anti Trump law enforcement demographics too.

My cousin and his wife are park rangers and are super excited for Haaland to take over Interior.

Maybe, but why wouldn't these people vote in numbers like this for Clinton (Or Newsom, Brown, ...)? NPS workers seem like they'd be pretty reliably Democratic in a typical election and I don't think there were any large D surges in other counties with national parks (maybe Glacier MT?)

Inyo hasn't posted precinct-level data so it's hard to know for certain, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Californians (and/or young people nationwide) temporarily moved to Bishop or elsewhere in the Owens valley to hide out and/or do remote work. The amazing recreation opportunities there make it attractive for a type of young, outdoorsy person and it's a popular destination for vanlifers.

Mono County (Mammoth and gateway towns to Yosemite) also netted over 1200 votes, plausibly for the same reason.