Did Obama lose Florida for Biden in 2016?
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  Did Obama lose Florida for Biden in 2016?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: When Obama visited Cuba in 2016, did that seal Biden's fate there in 2020?
#1
Yes		  
#2
Probably		  
#3
It certainly didn't help		  
#4
No, he would have lost it anyway		  
#5
It helped him (troll option)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Did Obama lose Florida for Biden in 2016?  (Read 5771 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: January 07, 2021, 03:26:12 PM »
That Miami-Dade result, tho
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2021, 03:32:19 PM »
Why didn't Clinton do worse in Miami Dade if visiting Cuba was such a problem?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2021, 03:36:10 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on January 07, 2021, 03:32:19 PM
Why didn't Clinton do worse in Miami Dade if visiting Cuba was such a problem?



She had a 40+ year history with Hispanic voters of all stripes.
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2021, 03:36:55 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on January 07, 2021, 03:36:10 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on January 07, 2021, 03:32:19 PM
Why didn't Clinton do worse in Miami Dade if visiting Cuba was such a problem?



She had a 40+ year history with Hispanic voters of all stripes.


Not really...
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Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu
Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2021, 03:40:00 PM »
The idea that Relatable Abuela Hillary was uniquely strong with Hispanic voters strikes me as revisionist history to avoid addressing whyever it is that Biden seems to be uniquely weak with them.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2021, 03:46:40 PM »
Quote from: Gary Peters in Retirement on January 07, 2021, 03:36:55 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on January 07, 2021, 03:36:10 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on January 07, 2021, 03:32:19 PM
Why didn't Clinton do worse in Miami Dade if visiting Cuba was such a problem?



She had a 40+ year history with Hispanic voters of all stripes.


Not really...
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2021, 03:47:03 PM »
Quote from: Marxpilled Red Tory on January 07, 2021, 03:40:00 PM
The idea that Relatable Abuela Hillary was uniquely strong with Hispanic voters strikes me as revisionist history to avoid addressing whyever it is that Biden seems to be uniquely weak with them.

But that's the meme and I'm running with it Smiley

But yeah you're right.
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2021, 03:47:31 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on January 07, 2021, 03:36:10 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on January 07, 2021, 03:32:19 PM
Why didn't Clinton do worse in Miami Dade if visiting Cuba was such a problem?



She had a 40+ year history with Hispanic voters of all stripes.


She also was NOT SoS when Obama opened relations.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2021, 03:50:17 PM »
A poll of Cuban-Americans in FL by FIU in 2020 indicated that most Cuban-Americans in FL support closer ties with Cuba, so their support of Trump is mostly in spite of Trump's attitude toward Cuba, not because of it.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2021, 03:50:46 PM »
Quote from: The time for charity has passed. on January 07, 2021, 03:47:31 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on January 07, 2021, 03:36:10 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on January 07, 2021, 03:32:19 PM
Why didn't Clinton do worse in Miami Dade if visiting Cuba was such a problem?



She had a 40+ year history with Hispanic voters of all stripes.


She also was NOT SoS when Obama opened relations.
Most people are not that nuanced, Clinton was seen as a extension of Obama's third term and campaigned with him alot so she was seen as a continuation of those policies

Also this doesn't explain why downballot democrats in Florida did worse in 2020 than in 2018
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Motorcity
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« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2021, 04:45:58 PM »
Maybe the crisis in Venezuelan reversed public opinion in the Cuban community?

Or there truly was an huge influx of retires to Florida in the last 4 years

Or maybe Trump home state being Florida on the ballot actually did swing a point or two
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2021, 04:50:27 PM »
There is a Cuban Embargo on FL but Biden can win FL in2024/ with Rick Scott, Rubio is supportive of PR Statehood
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Roblox
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« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2021, 05:10:52 PM »
Quote from: Marxpilled Red Tory on January 07, 2021, 03:40:00 PM
The idea that Relatable Abuela Hillary was uniquely strong with Hispanic voters strikes me as revisionist history to avoid addressing whyever it is that Biden seems to be uniquely weak with them.

It also ignores her doing worse than Obama 2012 with hispanics in many places and indeed overall.
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It's Time.
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« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2021, 05:19:06 PM »
even if Miami-Dade had cast the same amount of votes that it did in 2020, and Biden won Miami-Dade by the same margin Hillary did, he would have lost Florida by 0.3% or roughly 35K votes.
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« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2021, 05:57:31 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2021, 06:12:24 PM by Gwinnett County Asian voters for OSSOFF and WARNOCK »
Quote from: Roblox on January 07, 2021, 05:10:52 PM
Quote from: Marxpilled Red Tory on January 07, 2021, 03:40:00 PM
The idea that Relatable Abuela Hillary was uniquely strong with Hispanic voters strikes me as revisionist history to avoid addressing whyever it is that Biden seems to be uniquely weak with them.

It also ignores her doing worse than Obama 2012 with hispanics in many places and indeed overall.

Obama’s relative strength with Latinos probably came from coming having an immigrant father, partially growing up overseas, and voters blaming the GOP for the Great Recession.

Quote from: TML on January 07, 2021, 03:50:17 PM
A poll of Cuban-Americans in FL by FIU in 2020 indicated that most Cuban-Americans in FL support closer ties with Cuba, so their support of Trump is mostly in spite of Trump's attitude toward Cuba, not because of it.

Or possibly completely unrelated to it.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #15 on: January 07, 2021, 05:58:27 PM »
Quote from: Marxpilled Red Tory on January 07, 2021, 03:40:00 PM
The idea that Relatable Abuela Hillary was uniquely strong with Hispanic voters strikes me as revisionist history to avoid addressing whyever it is that Biden seems to be uniquely weak with them.

What if both are true? Obama and Hillary are strong with Hispanic voters and Biden is weak with them?

There is no singular reason Hispanic voters swung hard R in 2020, it’s a variety of different reasons.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2021, 07:07:53 PM »
Maybe this is something I shouldn't say, but lately I've been wondering if a significant portion of Hispanic voters are beginning to have a problem with Black identity politics. Could that be affecting the numbers?
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2021, 12:39:37 AM »
Not Latino, but I don't think anti-blackness among Latino communities started with BLM. I also don't think anti-black prejudice really explains what happened in Miami-Dade.

Quote from: cringenat on January 07, 2021, 10:51:06 PM
swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
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Fusternino
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« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2021, 01:02:56 AM »
It's not something I'm proud of but it's true. Lots of Hispanics, I think in large part due to the "reverse" one-drop rule in Latin America, harbor significant anti-Black attitudes.
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AGA
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« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2021, 01:28:21 AM »
Turns out saying "socialism" enough times works.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2021, 10:41:51 AM »
Nah, 2016 contradicts this take. And HRC was also associated with Obama. The reason Trump did so well beyond (ridiculous) fears of socialism, is because he actually campaigned for the Cuban vote and had some macho appeal while is 2020 campaign was less centered around immigration.
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Red Wall
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« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2021, 01:43:30 PM »
No cause Hillary outperformed Obama in Miami-Dade

It is because the salience to socialist leftist movements among Cubans, Venezuelans and Mexicans increased a lot since 2016. Maduro takeover, AMLO winning the election in Mexico and Bernie running for president as a socialist made them snap hard R. That was especially true on border areas. Florida is not that far away from Cuba, with the strait serving as their "border" and RGV borders AMLO's Mexico and is the place where the most border crossings happen.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2021, 02:26:54 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/30/opinions/florida-cubans-trump-propaganda-martinez/index.html

Why Florida's Cuban population is susceptible to Trump's propaganda
Opinion by Alexandra Martinez
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Hammy
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« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2021, 06:44:00 PM »
I assume Biden is the typo and not 2016.

Given how close Florida was in 2012, I figured Florida was lost as soon as the Cuban embargo was lifted.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2021, 10:16:57 PM »
Quote from: Oregon Eagle Politics on January 07, 2021, 05:19:06 PM
even if Miami-Dade had cast the same amount of votes that it did in 2020, and Biden won Miami-Dade by the same margin Hillary did, he would have lost Florida by 0.3% or roughly 35K votes.

Right.  He overperformed in central Florida, but he underperformed in Miami-Dade (obviously), but also underperformed in Broward and Palm Beach.
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