Why did Baltimore City Trend D
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  Why did Baltimore City Trend D
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Author Topic: Why did Baltimore City Trend D  (Read 1684 times)
It's Time.
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« on: January 07, 2021, 12:18:58 PM »

Demographically similar areas Swung/Trended R.
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2021, 12:26:24 PM »

Higher turnout?

Maybe Maryland close to Deleware stopped any sort of swing
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2021, 01:22:02 PM »

It doesn't exactly have a burgeoning economy encouraging young people and minorities to more out to the suburbs similar to how they are in places like Philly and DC.
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2021, 01:23:47 PM »

Biden was a very strong fit for the state as a whole. I have yet to dig into precinct data or see anyone else do as much, but I wouldn't be surprised if the trend was powered by upscale white areas downtown and in the more suburban outer areas of the city. I'd also be very curious to see how the heavily Jewish areas in the northwest and adjacent parts of Baltimore County (Pikesville, Reisterstown) swung, whether or not they were in line with what we saw in New York.
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« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2021, 10:51:06 PM »

R support in Baltimore is centered in the southeast part of the city. It's a partially white non-college area that probably swung against Trump like much of the Northeast had. Trump lost ground in white non-college parts of the Northeast, including large cities.
Additionally swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
It can be either one or both of these things. MD-7(which includes much of the black parts of Baltimore) swung left but I couldn't tell you the internal shifts, as it also includes parts of other counties.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2021, 04:59:59 PM »

R swing amongst African-Americans was quite small compared to Hispanics or to a lesser extent Asians (Vietnamese and Filipinos swung R even though Biden still won latter but lost former, however Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, and Indians did not) while amongst white minority in Baltimore, very high percentage have college degrees and whites with college degrees saw strongest swing to Biden and my guess is minor gain of Trump amongst African-Americans was more than cancelled out amongst whites with a college degree.
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Horus
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2021, 05:09:55 PM »

R support in Baltimore is centered in the southeast part of the city. It's a partially white non-college area that probably swung against Trump like much of the Northeast had. Trump lost ground in white non-college parts of the Northeast, including large cities.
Additionally swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
It can be either one or both of these things. MD-7(which includes much of the black parts of Baltimore) swung left but I couldn't tell you the internal shifts, as it also includes parts of other counties.

The large Black swing towards Trump in Miami was almost certainly due to Haitian Americans.
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2021, 05:11:24 PM »

^I’m 100% sure Indians, Chinese, and Koreans all swung R to varying extents. Not sure about Japanese Americans, the only hard data for that is Hawaii’s R swing- which I don’t think was limited to any particular racial or ethnic group(s).

Additionally swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
It can be either one or both of these things. MD-7(which includes much of the black parts of Baltimore) swung left but I couldn't tell you the internal shifts, as it also includes parts of other counties.

MN blacks are mostly of Somali origin, while MA blacks are probably disproportionately of immigrant origin and better educated overall. The Detroit R swing is what you’d expect for the ADOS community.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2021, 05:38:04 PM »

R support in Baltimore is centered in the southeast part of the city. It's a partially white non-college area that probably swung against Trump like much of the Northeast had. Trump lost ground in white non-college parts of the Northeast, including large cities.
Additionally swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
It can be either one or both of these things. MD-7(which includes much of the black parts of Baltimore) swung left but I couldn't tell you the internal shifts, as it also includes parts of other counties.

The large Black swing towards Trump in Miami was almost certainly due to Haitian Americans.

Why did they swing R? There's no socialism-related baggage like there is with Cubans and Venezuelans.
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2021, 05:44:16 PM »

Maybe Trump's past disparaging comments about the city may have helped?
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2021, 06:16:41 PM »

R support in Baltimore is centered in the southeast part of the city. It's a partially white non-college area that probably swung against Trump like much of the Northeast had. Trump lost ground in white non-college parts of the Northeast, including large cities.
Additionally swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
It can be either one or both of these things. MD-7(which includes much of the black parts of Baltimore) swung left but I couldn't tell you the internal shifts, as it also includes parts of other counties.

The large Black swing towards Trump in Miami was almost certainly due to Haitian Americans.

Why did they swing R? There's no socialism-related baggage like there is with Cubans and Venezuelans.
I mean Minnesota and Mass swing left and Florida swinging right might also be on the cultural differences of the states.
I remember people saying Florida is a trumpet state or the state GOP is very strong while somewhat weaker in Mass and Minn
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2021, 08:58:07 PM »

R support in Baltimore is centered in the southeast part of the city. It's a partially white non-college area that probably swung against Trump like much of the Northeast had. Trump lost ground in white non-college parts of the Northeast, including large cities.
Additionally swings in mostly black areas were all over the place. Black parts of Minnesota and Mass. swung left, Detroit barely swung right and black parts of the Miami metro solidly moved right.
It can be either one or both of these things. MD-7(which includes much of the black parts of Baltimore) swung left but I couldn't tell you the internal shifts, as it also includes parts of other counties.

The large Black swing towards Trump in Miami was almost certainly due to Haitian Americans.
I mean black areas of Miami arent' like 100% black, there are surely a few hispanics and cubans living there that swung right living there.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2021, 09:53:05 AM »

All the middle-aged white hipsters who have moved in and can't stop yapping about that boomer John Waters. 
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2021, 09:59:13 AM »

All the middle-aged white hipsters who have moved in and can't stop yapping about that boomer John Waters. 

Who won the "filth are my politics, filth is my life" vote?
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