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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in the Parliamentary election?
#1
Action&Solidarity
 
#2
Communists&Socialists
 
#3
Sor Party
 
#4
Renato Usatii Alliance
 
#5
Dignity&Truth
 
#6
Democrats
 
#7
AUR
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: Moldovan Elections&Politics  (Read 8984 times)
RGM2609
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« Reply #75 on: June 07, 2021, 09:21:29 AM »

Threshold update:

For a party - 5%
Alliance - 7%
Independents - 2%

These used to be 6, 9 and 3%, so this is overall good for small parties.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #76 on: June 11, 2021, 03:29:54 PM »

Now that the registration process is over and we are only a month away from the election, I will write a  few posts describing the main parties and their chances so that everyone has a fairly good idea about what is going on. Starting today with the two main contestants, which are the only ones with a chance to lead the government.

Action and Solidarity Party - leader - Maia Sandu (de facto), Igor Grosu (de jure), 2019 presidential - 36.2%, 2019 parliamentary - 26.8% (in alliance with Dignity&Truth)

Who are they - The latest party to fill the pro-European segment after the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and Liberals after their role in stealing the infamous billion dollars and fueling the rise of Plahotniuc. They were founded by Maia Sandu, who used to be a member of the Liberal Democrats and who as Education Minister made a name for herself by being the only one in the government actually promoting reforms. Their structure is based on the former PLDM combined with members of the civic society, however, their territorial presence is much weaker compared to their competitors.

Ideology - Actually pretty standard liberalism in the European sense. Support for small government and reducing bureaucracy is a theme, and they are as socially liberal as they can get away with in this very socially conservative country. Foreign relations-wise, they fully support getting close with the European Union (although somewhat more realistic about the prospects of joining it). They are supported by Bruxelles in this election, if they win a lot of financial aid will come to Moldova. However, their main theme is fighting corruption and bringing justice to the corrupt oligarchs.

Chances they will be in government - Fairly high, I would put them at 75% right now and I will update my prediction once we are closer to the election.

Why - While most public polls show them not being able to form a government, almost all of those are Socialist junk, and the actually semi-reputable firms show them with a large lead. But I will polling aside for a moment, because in Moldova it is basically trash, and I think about it this way - if I had only seen the events from the past months, who would I think is winning? I think the answer should be obvious to anyone.

Keep in mind - The failures of the Socialists have them isolated on the political scene. The more parties that pass the threshold - the better for Action and Solidarity. ALL of the parties lurking around the threshold right now (Our Party, Dignity&Truth, AUR, Democrats) are much more likely to go against Dodon and join PAS.

Alliance of Socialists and Communists - leaders - Igor Dodon and Vladimir Voronin (Dodon has the power), 2020 presidential - 32.6%, 2019 parliamentary - 34.9%

Who are they - Following their tumultuous separation and conflict which lasted a decade, former Presidents Dodon and Voronin made peace and are now best friends again, both out of desperation for their political future. Dodon, who overplayed his hand after he saw himself as Chief Oligarch in 2019 is now on the verge of losing everything politically and possibly arrested by a judicial system left to its own devices by PAS and Voronin, who has been kicked out from Parliament in 2019 and wants his seat back, have allied in the name of the motherland. Their structure in the territory is strong, and PSRM was basically the old PCRM without Voronin. Now that Voronin is back into the mix, it is almost as if nothing changed.

Ideology - Russophille nazbols. Need I say more? The fact that Voronin, shortly after being anointed as the head of the list of this Alliance, went on to rant on national television about how PAS allowing NATO soldiers to come to Moldova would lead to Black children being born in the country, should tell you everything about where they are at socially. The rest of their ideology is basically scare-mongering people about the West, singing praises to Russia, and empty appeals to faith.

Chances they will be in government - Meh. 25%, to be updated once closer to the election.

Why - Their territorial advantage and their control over the government structures can not be ignored or underestimated. But right now the odds are against them. Again ignoring the polls, their electoral campaign has been the most radical yet, with little messaging beyond attempts to scare people that PAS would hand over the country to foreigners. It all just reeks of desperation, even the very existence of this alliance. They are attempting to drive their base out, perhaps because they know the Russophilles are disappointed with Dodon and demobilized. And the issue with political isolation needs to be remembered - if they do not have a majority alone or with Sor Party, they will be in opposition.

Keep in mind - Russia seems to have abandoned them. Unlike past elections, when Dodon would get meetings with Putin and the Russians would promise all kinds of benefits to Moldovians, the Kremlin seems to...ignore Moldova and the Socialists. Reasons for this are many, but watch if Dodon manages to turn around the situation and get significant support from his foreign allies before July 11th. If not, he is in deep trouble.





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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #77 on: June 12, 2021, 12:46:47 AM »

the Kremlin seems to... ignore Moldova and the Socialists. Reasons for this are many


What are the main ones?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #78 on: June 12, 2021, 12:52:14 AM »

the Kremlin seems to... ignore Moldova and the Socialists. Reasons for this are many


What are the main ones?
Disappointment at Dodon failing to enact any of the main interests of Russia during his governance in 2019-2020 as he was too focused on expanding his own personal power. Probably also reluctance about his ability to win after he lost the presidential election so badly and unexpectedly. And unwillingness to basically bail out Moldova (which they would have to do if the Socialists win).
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PSOL
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« Reply #79 on: June 12, 2021, 01:30:21 AM »

Russia seems to be more willing at letting go of too costly and degraded spheres of influence in Europe, it’s in the Caucasus and now increasingly with Central Asia that they’re reinforcing their hold over along with gambits in Africa and the Near East.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #80 on: June 12, 2021, 01:36:20 AM »

Russia seems to be more willing at letting go of too costly and degraded spheres of influence in Europe, it’s in the Caucasus and now increasingly with Central Asia that they’re reinforcing their hold over along with gambits in Africa and the Near East.

Agreed. I think what they want with Moldova is to be kept indefinitely in the grey zone between them and the West, which is not unlikely given the situation.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #81 on: June 12, 2021, 01:48:28 AM »

Now on to the three parties that are around the threshold in the polls -

Sor Party - leader - Ilan Sor (lol), 2020 presidential - 6.5%, 2019 parliamentary - 8.3%

Who are they - A bunch of opportunists grouped around Ilan Sor, a man who helped politicians steal the infamous billion-dollar (with a commission for himself, of course) before turning around and pretending to be the successful businessman who wants to help poor people (quite like Trump). He became Mayor of an important city and used his funds to promote all kinds of lavish concerts and festivals, which is how he got a base of support in the country. He founded this party and bought the votes of old people by basically giving them free food. That should tell you a lot about the state of Moldova.

Ideology - Would follow any ideology would help Sor get more power, but right now they are very conservative and Russophile, similar to Dodon and his Socialists. One can clearly see why they are allies.

Chances of being in Parliament - 90%. Their structures seem to be too strong for it to fall under 5%. However, it could get dangerous if this becomes a two-horse race between PAS and PSRM-PCRM. Many of their voters may consider supporting the Socialists in such a scenario. But again, it is unlikely it would get that bad for it to fall under the threshold.

Potential alliances - If the Socialists and Sor Party have a majority, they will form the next government together. If they do not, no one else will join them and they will be left in opposition. So, either government with PSRM or opposition.

Renato Usatii Alliance - Leader - Renato Usatii (lol x2), 2020 presidential - 16.9%, 2019 parliamentary - 3%

Who are they - Again, a group of opportunists and lackeys assembled around Renato Usatii, a rich guy involved with the mob who wants to be seen as the greatest fighter for the people. His history is very complicated and beyond the point of these posts, but he has served as a hugely destabilizing figure in Moldovan politics. He has a base of support, but his party has never been able to capture all or most of it. The change of name is an attempt to change that. The Alliance is between Our Party and a satellite of theirs, so nothing of importance there.

Ideology - Unlike Sor who promises bread, Usatii promises circuses. One of his main promises is that he will form something similar to Mossad, which will arrest the oligarchs. The party is also Russophile, but with a slight variation compared to PSRM and Sor, combining it with a hefty dose of nationalism and populism.

Chances of being in Parliament - The formation of the Alliance was likely a huge mistake because now they will need 7% to get in instead of 5%. The 17% that Usatii got are long gone, and the party is lurking somewhere around 5%. However, I would not count them out just yet. The presidential shows that they have some underlying support. 30% chance.

Potential alliances - Usatii absolutely despises Dodon and Sor, so if he gets in, he will not ally with them despite their similarities in proclaimed ideologies. However, one of the worst scenarios would be that in which Action and Solidarity have no other option than to rely on their support to form a government. It would be an awkward, short-lasting alliance that will sink both parties involved. PAS desperately wishes to either form a majority alone or with some other party.

Dignity and Truth - leader - Andrei Nastase, 2020 presidential - 3.3%

Who are they - The other liberal pro-European party, they were formed following the 2015 protests against the government. The leaders of the party right now are those who organized the mass gatherings against Plahotniuc during his reign. However, ever since the fight against the oligarch stopped, the party has been losing energy and support, with Action and Solidary swallowing up their momentum, as seen with their embarrassing loss in the 2019 Chisinau mayoral race and the 2020 presidential election.

Ideology - Read PAS. They are liberal and pro-European too. The main difference is their more populist rhetoric and style. Definitely much more folksy compared to the promoted professionalism of PAS. One can clearly see the origins of the parties (protests for Dignity&Truth, a regular faction split for PAS).

Chances of being in Parliament - 20%. As I wrote above, they have been losing a lot of momentum to PAS and the appearance of a two-horse race is hurting them. However, they do have strong structures and an energetic campaign could push them over the top, so I am not counting them out just yet. Also, should PAS have any falters, this is where any lost support will go. They just need to run a good campaign and get lucky, not remotely impossible. The fact, however, that PAS was willing to let 3-4% of the Pro-European vote go to waste by refusing to ally with Dignity&Truth, shows that they are very confident in their chances.

Potential alliances - They are no fans of PAS (and the other way around), but if they get in and can form a majority with their former allies, they will do so. So it is in the best interest of PAS that they make it above the threshold. A coalition with them would be much more sustainable than one with Usatii.

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RGM2609
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« Reply #82 on: June 13, 2021, 04:07:39 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2021, 04:25:02 AM by RGM2609 »

I am bringing to you, with great honor and amusement, why the Alliance of Socialists and Communists thinks people should vote for them -

Today, Moldova is in danger of losing its nationhood. They want us to lose our Motherland, our precious natal home. A group of incompetent, pro-Romanian politicians is hurrying to get to govern with Western help. They do not need a sovereign, independent, neutral and strong Moldova. They need destabilization, division, and conflict. They want the citizens to be completely disappointed in their own country. If they end up governing, Moldova will be gone. In the face of this deathly threat, the Parties of Communists and Socialists have put aside their differences and allied.

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RGM2609
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« Reply #83 on: June 13, 2021, 04:56:49 AM »

The last post of the series about the parties will be dedicated to the parties which are highly unlikely to make it in but could produce an upset and thus deserved to be briefly described -

Democratic Party of Moldova - leader - Pavel Filip, 2019 parliamentary - 23.6%

Oh, long gone are the glory days. The party which unilaterally lead Moldova under Plahotniuc is now only a shadow of its former self. Its former strong structures have mostly switched parties, their attempt to return to government ended with them being kicked out by PSRM, and out of 30 MPs, only around 10 are still members. However, they are not dead yet. While the odds are low, they could make it above 5% with the help of what is left of their structures and their local officials of which quite a few are left. In a low turnout election, it could be enough. If they do make it in, they are a potential, if a little awkward, ally to Action and Solidarity. It would be tougher if the coalition would also include Dignity&Truth, their former arch-nemesis.

Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - leader - Vlad Biletchi

The Romanian AUR, which originally started as a unionist party before switching to far-right conspiracies, has now expanded to Moldova. Their brand here is a little different, being a primarily unionist and nationalist party rather than right-wing populist, but generally, they are on the same page with their Romanian organization. They are supported by the Liberal Party, the formerly big party which is left now with 1%, and other small unionist parties, but have failed at uniting all unionist factions with them. It is unlikely they will make it, but the 2020 Romanian election has taught me never to underestimated this cancerous party again. If they do, they will be forced to ally with Action and Solidarity. However, I think a likely-to-be-true theory is that they have some deal with the Socialists - take away pro-Western votes from PAS while also loudly promoting unionism to create the illusion of danger and mobilize the PSRM base. It is unclear what they get in return, perhaps more help from Russians in Romania?

Party of Development and Consolidation of Moldova - leader - Ion Chicu

This is a rather curious case. It is a party formed by Ion Chicu, who served as the PSRM Prime Minister in 2020. It seems like he and Dodon had some conflicts behind closed doors, and that lead him to form a so-called center-right party that wants integration with the EU. The only reason for which I am including this party is that it is lead by someone who was recently Prime Minister and thus has some influence, but I would not give it higher than 5% chances of making it in. If it does through, I do believe it would join PSRM and Sor in an alliance, perhaps for no other reason than the fact that PAS would reject to ally with it under any circumstances.

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RGM2609
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« Reply #84 on: July 05, 2021, 02:44:28 PM »

The campaign so far has been very, very boring, other than an incident which happened yesterday - during an anti-unionist march by the Communists&Socialists, ex-Mayor of Chisinau and AUR candidate Dorin Chirtoaca attempted to go and beat up Dodon and Voronin and came very close to doing so before being taken out by their bodyguards. Yeah, elections in the Balkans. Either way, I believe this race is Safe PAS when it comes to winning it in a literal way (coming in first) and Likely PAS in a practical way (forming a government). I will keep an eye on what happens in the final week through - many Moldovian campaigns have had crazy final days.

Also, new BOP poll -

Action and Solidarity - 43.5%
Communists and Socialists - 32.5%
Sor Party - 7.8%

Renato Usatii Alliance - 5.9%
Dignity&Truth - 3.5%
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RGM2609
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« Reply #85 on: July 07, 2021, 10:45:33 AM »

I have seen enough - AUR and the Socialists are definitely working together. Another public fight was likely engineered today in front of the HQ of the Socialists, once again with ex-Mayor Chirtoaca taking part in it and getting beat up by the socialists and their bodyguards. The entire campaign of the PSRM-PCRM Alliance was centered against the imaginary danger of the unionist brigades coming to abolish Moldova and its statehood and AUR is used to create a clear picture of that in the minds of the socialist base. With their loud unionism and regular usage of violence, they help convince the demobilized and disappointed pro-Russians that perhaps Moldova actually is in great danger from the unionist thugs (never mind that PSRM always says that before elections, and then it magically goes away). Anyway, AUR is still unlikely to enter Parliament, but it hurts PAS both by scarring socialists into voting and by taking away actual pro-Western voters from it.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #86 on: July 08, 2021, 11:34:33 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2021, 11:37:41 AM by RGM2609 »

Given that tomorrow is the last day of the electoral campaign, I think it is time to revise my predictions from the top of this page -

I think the chances for PAS to be in government have gone from 75 to 85% and the chances of PSRM-PCRM have proportionally gone down to 15%. The turnaround that the leftists were hoping for just never happened, and the headlines were actually bad for them going into the final week, with Dodon involved in various scandals. Their campaign was also just recycling their old lies which already failed during the 2020 election.

On the minor parties, the chances of the Sor Party to enter Parliament went down from 90% to 75%. Still likely to make it, but their campaign was not very convincing and many voters could abandon them at the last second in favor of the socialists. I will keep the chances for the Renato Usatii Alliance and Dignity&Truth where they are as I still think they are unlikely to make it but it is still a possibility. I will eliminate the party made by Chicu from the upset watch as it was invisible and I doubt they will even get 1% and just let the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians and the Democrats, both with a 10% chance of making it in. I am tempted to add more parties to the upset watch because I am traumatized by the Romanian parliamentary election lol.

Also new poll up
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RGM2609
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« Reply #87 on: July 11, 2021, 01:36:56 AM »

The election is today. So excited! And the Moldovians seem to agree with me - turnout is through the roof! 8.8% voted by 9 and a half, compared to 5.5% in the first round of the presidential. A big turnout is good for the President and her PAS, but right now the surge is strongest in the pro-Russian areas, as they always seem to be vote earlier in the day. Will keep an eye on whether or not it will even out or go the other way by poll closing.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #88 on: July 11, 2021, 04:33:07 AM »

The turnout right now is 23,7%, compared to 19,6% at this point during the presidential election. 12% of the votes cast up until this point come from abroad, which is very good for PAS and I believe it is a record. 2% of the votes come from Transnistria, and those votes have always been disputed as to their legality, so if the election is swung by those, expect court battles.
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Astatine
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« Reply #89 on: July 11, 2021, 07:33:36 AM »

According to Europe Elects, diaspora turnout was at 80,000 (compared to 75,000 in 2019) at 11:30 - PAS will likely benefit from that, right?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #90 on: July 11, 2021, 07:35:17 AM »

The election has mostly lost its momentum and is now even with the first round of the presidential in terms of turnout (that ended at 49%). It would seem as if it has evened out across the regions, with the turnout in the pro-Russian North and the pro-EU Centre being basically the same. I will keep you updated if that changes. Also, there will be an exit poll for the first time in a while as far as the parliamentary elections are concerned.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #91 on: July 11, 2021, 07:38:07 AM »
« Edited: July 11, 2021, 07:45:12 AM by RGM2609 »

According to Europe Elects, diaspora turnout was at 80,000 (compared to 75,000 in 2019) at 11:30 - PAS will likely benefit from that, right?
Right now it has grown all the way to 133.000 and it is believed it might be over 200k by poll closings. And yes, it will absolutely benefit PAS, which is certain to win at least over 60% of those votes and likely over 70%.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #92 on: July 11, 2021, 10:33:20 AM »

Turnout fell to 41.9% compared to 42,5% from the first round of the presidential. The pro-EU areas and the abroad precincts have taken the lead on turnout and there are some rumors that turnout in PSRM feuds is catastrophically low compared to other elections.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #93 on: July 11, 2021, 01:09:42 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2021, 01:13:00 PM by RGM2609 »

Exit poll results (not including the last hour) -

PAS - 55,1%
PSRM-PCRM - 24%
SOR - 8,1%
Usatii Alliance - 4,4%
Dignity&Truth - 1,8%
AUR - 0,9%
Democrats - 1,1%

Jesus. What a crushing victory
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RGM2609
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« Reply #94 on: July 11, 2021, 02:07:35 PM »

The first results and the live vote count can be found here - https://pv.cec.md/parlamentare2021-rezultate.html
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RGM2609
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« Reply #95 on: July 11, 2021, 02:14:32 PM »

15% of the vote is in -

PAS - 41.2%
PSRM-PCRM - 34.6%
Sor Party - 9.4%
Usatii Alliance - 4%
Democrats - 2.6%
Dignity&Truth - 2.3%
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RGM2609
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« Reply #96 on: July 11, 2021, 02:21:08 PM »

20% of the vote is in -

PAS - 43%
PSRM-PCRM - 33,4%
Sor Party - 8,7%

Usatii Alliance - 4%
Democrats - 2,5%
Dignity&Truth - 2,4%
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RGM2609
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« Reply #97 on: July 11, 2021, 02:31:16 PM »

27% of the vote is in -

PAS - 44,6%
PSRM-PCRM - 32,2%
Sor Party - 8,5%

Usatii Alliance - 3,9%
Democrats - 2,4%
Dignity&Truth - 2,4%

It is pretty much over. It can be said that 4 parties will get into Parliament - PAS, PSRM, PCRM, and Sor. PAS will have a majority on its own and will form the government.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #98 on: July 11, 2021, 02:38:23 PM »

33% of the vote is in -

PAS - 45,5%
PSRM-PCRM - 32%
Sor Party - 8%

Usatii Alliance - 3,8%
Dignity&Truth - 2,5%
Democrats - 2,3%
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RGM2609
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« Reply #99 on: July 11, 2021, 02:47:33 PM »

40% of the vote is in -

PAS - 46,3%
PSRM-PCRM - 31,3%
Sor Party - 7,8%

Usatii Alliance - 3,8%
Dignity&Truth - 2,5%
Democrats - 2,3%

Nothing from abroad is in so I am sure PAS will go over 50% in the final vote count. Not since 2001 has there been such a crushing victory for a party. Also LOL at AUR embarrassing themselves - so good to see
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