Moldovan Elections&Politics

[RGM2609]

As expected, PSRM and their Sor Party allies have proposed another PM candidate and contested the nominalization decree in Court, in a re-do of the previous legal battle. While PSRM won last time, this time the Presidency has the fact that this majority did not officially exist before the decree was issued going in its favor. We will see how this ends, but the gridlock has been going on since late December at this point. Probably the Parliament will get dissolved simply by breaking the limit during which it can function without a Prime Minister.

[beesley]

As expected, PSRM and their Sor Party allies have proposed another PM candidate and contested the nominalization decree in Court, in a re-do of the previous legal battle. While PSRM won last time, this time the Presidency has the fact that this majority did not officially exist before the decree was issued going in its favor. We will see how this ends, but the gridlock has been going on since late December at this point. Probably the Parliament will get dissolved simply by breaking the limit during which it can function without a Prime Minister.

So an early election is all but certain now?

What issues will be important to Moldovans then? Or do the pro/anti-Russia and pro/anti-European dividing lines extend to the electorate fairly universally?

[RGM2609]

As expected, PSRM and their Sor Party allies have proposed another PM candidate and contested the nominalization decree in Court, in a re-do of the previous legal battle. While PSRM won last time, this time the Presidency has the fact that this majority did not officially exist before the decree was issued going in its favor. We will see how this ends, but the gridlock has been going on since late December at this point. Probably the Parliament will get dissolved simply by breaking the limit during which it can function without a Prime Minister.

So an early election is all but certain now?

What issues will be important to Moldovans then? Or do the pro/anti-Russia and pro/anti-European dividing lines extend to the electorate fairly universally?

I suppose one could say that it is all but certain, but PAS seems willing to flip flop and invest their own government if they find the votes, so while an early election is still the most likely outcome, it is not a foregone conclusion.
Regarding issues, the pro-Russian/pro-European divide (with all of its implications such as moderate liberalism vs extreme social conservatism, efficient government vs welfare-focused government, etc.) will be a big factor, with the other one being which party does someone feel is the most oligarchic.

[RGM2609]

The Constitutional Court has upheld the decree by Maia Sandu and the Prime Minister candidate remains Igor Grosu. This will likely solve itself during this week- either Grosu fails and then early elections or he succeeds so obviously he is in government. This actually seems to be a horrific flip flop from Sandu and PAS, after months of demanding snap elections, as they have realized that the Parliament might pass their government, in the name of course of stability. The kingmakers will be Sor Party and Dignity&Truth as both parties have so far not publicly stated their position.

[RGM2609]

According to all political sources, PAS went back on its promise to cause snap elections and is now asking for its proposed government to be voted by the Parliament. To remind everyone of the context, if this government would fail to reach a majority of MPs, early elections would be guaranteed. In a horrific flip flop, PAS and Sandu themselves are trying to prevent that from happening. They probably saw that there are enough MPs scared of snap elections to put anyone in power, even PAS, and are trying to capitalize on that. However, a government of a party with 15 MPs out of 101 is sure to be a disaster, not to mention the serious situation the country is in.

[RGM2609]

Tomorrow the vote which will decide how the political crisis will end is going to happen. There are a few possibilities for what will happen next -

1. The Government passes. Even up to today, PAS and Sandu have been vague as to whether or not they even want it to pass. Assuming that they will vote for it, and so will the PDM remnants (which are desperate to avoid early elections, so likely) and Dignity&Truth (openly critical of the flip flops by PAS, kind of a toss-up), the government would then need the Sor Party to switch over (bigger possibility then it seems, they too want to avoid early elections). However, a government invested with the support of Sor and former Plahotniuc loyalists is not only dishonorable for Sandu, but it is also unpopular. And many voters would be left wondering, what have the previous months of gridlock been for?

2. The Government fails. While it would seem that from here snap elections are the obvious outcome, and they are certainly more likely than not to happen, there are a few ways in which PSRM-Sor could still fight back - endless court fights already seem to be planned and the Parliament could always declare a state of emergency (which would prevent it from being dissolved). So more gridlock, at least for some time.

[Karpatsky]

PSRM and Pentru Moldova just walked out of Parliament - appears Grosu is going to fail. But I kind of doubt it would have gone through anyways - do you really see PAS willing to throw away the chance at early elections when they have so much upside?

By the way, RGM2609, can you recommend me any good news sources for political news/opinion? I'd like to start following this more closely if early elections are indeed upcoming. I speak Russian but not Romanian, so I've been reading Newsmaker, ZdG Rus, and occasionally AVA.

[RGM2609]

The outcome of today has been in line with this entire political crisis - more court fights and more gridlock. Because PSRM and their allies left the meeting, it had to be canceled because of a lack of a majority in the room. Now, PAS claims that they believe the Parliament has met the criteria for dissolution, while PSRM says that as the Prime Minister has technically not been rejected, early elections still can not be called. Even if they eventually decide to show up and reject the government, they will still try to prevent the dissolution by saying there is a majority ready to govern. All roads lead to the Constitutional Court, as it has been throughout this crisis.

It seemed for a few days as if PAS was willing to drop their claims to early elections in favor of governing now, knowing that they might not be in the majority even after such elections. There was a lot of focus on their decision of either or not to invest a government, with pressure and critique coming from throughout the political spectrum. In the end, the oligarchic coalition has ironically saved them by walking out, allowing them to claim to have been committed to early elections all along.

Related to websites - I take my information from Unimedia and Jurnal, but I did not find a version of those in Russian. I will search for some in the following days.

[RGM2609]

The PSRM-Sor majority has now voted to put Moldova into a state of emergency for 60 days, with the clear purpose of delaying early elections. Early elections can not be held during a state of emergency. The President has announced that she will contest the decision if the socialists don't follow it up with other restrictive measures.

[Karpatsky]

CC just ruled Parliament can be dissolved! Looks like there will probably be another ruling at some point as to whether the state of emergency is legal, but to my understanding this means elections will come in late fall at the latest. Great win for democracy in Moldova and major kudos to President Sandu for standing her ground.

[RGM2609]

Probably the state of emergency will be declared legal - while the reason for it is clear, there is nothing illegal about it per se. However, the state only lasts for two months, unless they want to keep it forever, which without obvious cause would be illegal, early elections will happen this year. Probably in the summer, as Sandu had always wanted.

[RGM2609]

IRI poll -

Action and Solidarity - 42%
Socialists - 24%
Our Party - 8%
Sor Party - 7%
Dignity and Truth - 7%

Communists - 4%
Democratic - 3%
Liberal Democratic - 3%

[RGM2609]

The PSRM-Sor majority has unleashed an attack against the Constitutional Court, furious that it decided to dissolve the Parliament. They have swiftly and on dubious legal ground replaced a judge. Now, they have a majority of judges affiliated with them, shall the vote be upheld as legal.

[RGM2609]

Vox Populi showing different results than IRI (needless to say, IRI is more reputable, but still) -

Action and Solidarity - 40%
Socialists - 38%
Sor Party - 10%

Our Party - 4%
Dignity and Truth - 3%

I doubt that these numbers are accurate because Our Party is way too low given that their leader got over 15% in the presidential election and they should have a field day with all the Socialist failures, just today the Court dismissed their attempts to take over both the Court itself and secret services. However, if these results were true, govt formation would not be a problem.

[RGM2609]

Breaking: The emergency state declared by the PSRM-Sor majority has been deemed as illegal - the Parliament will now be dissolved and snap elections will cone sometime in the summer!

[RGM2609]

The early elections will happen, according to Sandu's decree, on July 11th. Until then, the PSRM lame duck government will stay in place. Nevertheless, great victory for the President and her party against a majority in Parliament hellbent on preventing the dissolvation. Now, it will all be up to the voters.

[bigic]

What about the judge that the parliamentary majority has supposedly replaced?

[RGM2609]

What about the judge that the parliamentary majority has supposedly replaced?

The Constitutional Court ruled that replacing her was unconstitutional, so it is not happening.

[RGM2609]

In a move that reeks of desperation on both sides, Dodon and his PSRM allied the leftovers of PCRM and will run together with them as an Alliance of Socialists and Communists. This is highly surprising after Dodon and Voronin have been fighting for 9 years. Voronin never forgot how his former lieutenant stole his party from right under him, sabotaged his plans to get into power, and ultimately sent him out of the Parliament. And there has been no shortage of virulent attacks between the two. However, Dodon probably wanted the few percentage points of PCRM very badly and Voronin wanted seats in Parliament for himself or his allies after 2 years on the bench, so this new unusual construction has emerged.

[Beagle]

In a move that reeks of desperation on both sides, Dodon and his PSRM allied the leftovers of PCRM and will run together with them as an Alliance of Socialists and Communists. This is highly surprising after Dodon and Voronin have been fighting for 9 years. Voronin never forgot how his former lieutenant stole his party from right under him, sabotaged his plans to get into power, and ultimately sent him out of the Parliament. And there has been no shortage of virulent attacks between the two. However, Dodon probably wanted the few percentage points of PCRM very badly and Voronin wanted seats in Parliament for himself or his allies after 2 years on the bench, so this new unusual construction has emerged.

Voronin the father, I assume? He's still harboring some hope for a political comeback at 80? Oh well. hope dies last, after all. Did anything come out of the charges against Voronin the son, btw?

[RGM2609]

In a move that reeks of desperation on both sides, Dodon and his PSRM allied the leftovers of PCRM and will run together with them as an Alliance of Socialists and Communists. This is highly surprising after Dodon and Voronin have been fighting for 9 years. Voronin never forgot how his former lieutenant stole his party from right under him, sabotaged his plans to get into power, and ultimately sent him out of the Parliament. And there has been no shortage of virulent attacks between the two. However, Dodon probably wanted the few percentage points of PCRM very badly and Voronin wanted seats in Parliament for himself or his allies after 2 years on the bench, so this new unusual construction has emerged.

Voronin the father, I assume? He's still harboring some hope for a political comeback at 80? Oh well. hope dies last, after all. Did anything come out of the charges against Voronin the son, btw?

I think it is more that he got used to the comforts of being an MP after so many years of being around and is willing to sacrifice his pride in his pursuit of it. Or maybe he felt humiliated that he got kicked out, and this is all a matter of ego. He's not delusional enough to think that he'll be in power or popular again, but maybe Dodon could give him some honorary position if PSRM wins.

As to the son, Voronin the father knows too much for anything to happen to the family. After all, most current oligarchs started gaining power during his reign.

[RGM2609]

So, after its leader George Simion was stopped at the border from entering Moldova, the Romanian AUR has decided in a publicity stunt to also run in Moldova. They are running on a committedly pro-unionist platform and are supported by the once-governing Liberal Party, which is now only a shadow of its former self. However, they have not achieved the unification of all unionist forces around them, with some parties, most importantly PUN, still running on their own. Some claim that AUR, which is a party with connections in Russia, is running with the only goal of taking votes away from Action&Solidarity, thus helping Dodon win. However, the latest iData poll gives them a pretty good score -

Action and Solidarity - 39.1%
Socialists and Communists - 33.4%
Sor Party - 10.1%

Renato Usatii Alliance (still basically Our Party) - 4.9%
Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - 4.8%
Dignity and Truth - 3.5%

With the election coming in a month, I will soon write some profiles on the biggest parties running.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, after its leader George Simion was stopped at the border from entering Moldova, the Romanian AUR has decided in a publicity stunt to also run in Moldova. They are running on a committedly pro-unionist platform and are supported by the once-governing Liberal Party, which is now only a shadow of its former self. However, they have not achieved the unification of all unionist forces around them, with some parties, most importantly PUN, still running on their own. Some claim that AUR, which is a party with connections in Russia, is running with the only goal of taking votes away from Action&Solidarity, thus helping Dodon win. However, the latest iData poll gives them a pretty good score -

Action and Solidarity - 39.1%
Socialists and Communists - 33.4%
Sor Party - 10.1%

Renato Usatii Alliance (still basically Our Party) - 4.9%
Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - 4.8%
Dignity and Truth - 3.5%

With the election coming in a month, I will soon write some profiles on the biggest parties running.

Nice result of AUR, I am kinda surprised.

[RGM2609]

So, after its leader George Simion was stopped at the border from entering Moldova, the Romanian AUR has decided in a publicity stunt to also run in Moldova. They are running on a committedly pro-unionist platform and are supported by the once-governing Liberal Party, which is now only a shadow of its former self. However, they have not achieved the unification of all unionist forces around them, with some parties, most importantly PUN, still running on their own. Some claim that AUR, which is a party with connections in Russia, is running with the only goal of taking votes away from Action&Solidarity, thus helping Dodon win. However, the latest iData poll gives them a pretty good score -

Action and Solidarity - 39.1%
Socialists and Communists - 33.4%
Sor Party - 10.1%

Renato Usatii Alliance (still basically Our Party) - 4.9%
Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - 4.8%
Dignity and Truth - 3.5%

With the election coming in a month, I will soon write some profiles on the biggest parties running.

Nice result of AUR, I am kinda surprised.

Agreed! This is still only one poll and I would wish to wait for some more before jumping to conclusions, but they are polling better than Dignity&Truth, the Democratic Party and so many other well-established parties, at least in this poll. This shows that the growth potential is there, but will they be able to hold this momentum into July is the question.

[Flyersfan232]

So, after its leader George Simion was stopped at the border from entering Moldova, the Romanian AUR has decided in a publicity stunt to also run in Moldova. They are running on a committedly pro-unionist platform and are supported by the once-governing Liberal Party, which is now only a shadow of its former self. However, they have not achieved the unification of all unionist forces around them, with some parties, most importantly PUN, still running on their own. Some claim that AUR, which is a party with connections in Russia, is running with the only goal of taking votes away from Action&Solidarity, thus helping Dodon win. However, the latest iData poll gives them a pretty good score -

Action and Solidarity - 39.1%
Socialists and Communists - 33.4%
Sor Party - 10.1%

Renato Usatii Alliance (still basically Our Party) - 4.9%
Alliance for the Unity of Romanians - 4.8%
Dignity and Truth - 3.5%

With the election coming in a month, I will soon write some profiles on the biggest parties running.

Nice result of AUR, I am kinda surprised.

Agreed! This is still only one poll and I would wish to wait for some more before jumping to conclusions, but they are polling better than Dignity&Truth, the Democratic Party and so many other well-established parties, at least in this poll. This shows that the growth potential is there, but will they be able to hold this momentum into July is the question.

How much of the election vote should be the The aboard vote