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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in the Parliamentary election?
#1
Action&Solidarity
 
#2
Communists&Socialists
 
#3
Sor Party
 
#4
Renato Usatii Alliance
 
#5
Dignity&Truth
 
#6
Democrats
 
#7
AUR
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: Moldovan Elections&Politics  (Read 8986 times)
RGM2609
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« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2021, 08:07:04 AM »

BREAKING - The vote for the proposed government is taking place today however it will certainly not pass because something more significant has happened - the socialists have decided that in order to avoid snap elections, they have to take over government, and as such they have semi-formalized their coalition with the Sor Party and their ex-DPM allies and proposed a new Prime Minister, Mariana Durlusteanu. Given that the proposal will be backed in written by more than 51 Members of Parliament, the President will have, according to most constitutional experts, to propose that candidate. Of course, this whole ordeal may be delayed a bit by some legal battles, but the most likely outcome is for a socialist government to be invested. Dodon is promising that it will be a short-lived government to prepare the country for snap elections, but I do not think anyone is dumb enough to believe that, especially as he had already broken the same promise.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2021, 10:59:01 AM »

As expected, the first government proposal failed, with...0 votes in favor and everyone else there against. Another proposed government needs to fail before snap elections happen, but as outlined in the previous post, this would not be so easy.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2021, 07:49:00 AM »

The President has nominated the same candidate for the Prime Minister position and PSRM has sued this decision, arguing that it is illegal for the proposal of the majority to be ignored (and it probably is). The Court will probably rule on this in the following days.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2021, 05:53:41 PM »

The President has nominated the same candidate for the Prime Minister position and PSRM has sued this decision, arguing that it is illegal for the proposal of the majority to be ignored (and it probably is). The Court will probably rule on this in the following days.
So is a election happening or not?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #29 on: February 15, 2021, 01:59:16 AM »

The President has nominated the same candidate for the Prime Minister position and PSRM has sued this decision, arguing that it is illegal for the proposal of the majority to be ignored (and it probably is). The Court will probably rule on this in the following days.
So is a election happening or not?
It depends on the outcome of the lawsuit. If Sandu is forced to nominate the PSRM candidate, I guess it will not. If she can nominate Gavrilita again, it is likely.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2021, 11:50:47 AM »

Intellect Group poll -

Action and Solidarity - 35.4%
Socialists - 31.8%
Our Party - 9.9%
Sor Party - 8.9%

Democratic - 5.4%
Dignity and Truth - 3.4%
Communists - 2.5%
For Moldova - 1.3%

If this were to happen, Our Party would be the kingmakers - either join the other pro-Russians party with which it has common policies but it deeply despises or with a pro-EU party which it does not despise but also has nothing in common with politically.
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Estrella
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« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2021, 11:24:52 AM »

Yay!

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Estrella
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« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2021, 11:26:23 AM »

Or, in other words:

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RGM2609
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« Reply #33 on: February 22, 2021, 12:39:44 PM »

This would be great news, but this is a hefty outlier from a mediocre firm. In the same day, ASDM (pretty mediocre too tbf) published a poll in line with all of the others.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2021, 04:06:50 PM »

Yay!


That a majority? Also what’s with the id social democrats?
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Estrella
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« Reply #35 on: February 22, 2021, 04:32:15 PM »

Yay!


That a majority? Also what’s with the id social democrats?

If
PAS got such a result (see RGM's caveat), then yes, that would be a majority.

As for the latter, Europe Elects' party classifications in non-EU countries are a bit kooky and best taken with a grain of salt. As I understand, they're based on parties' affiliations in the Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe, a meaningless talking shop 99% of people have never heard of.

For PSRM though, the S&D|ID classification is accurate. PSRM is, for all intents and purposes, the party of Russian and Gagauz minorities, plus some ethnic Moldovans who think the country should orient itself towards Russia instead of Romania/EU. The party's left-wing posturing (very left-wing; their logo is a red star ffs!) is partly due to the fact that their voter base is poorer and more rural, but it's mostly Soviet nostalgia and attempting to be a successor to Voronin's not-Communist-in-the-slightest PCRM (Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova). But that's all it is; just posturing. On non-economic issues, they're a far-far-right party and hence members of ID (also the most Russophilic group).
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Astatine
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E: -0.72, S: -5.90

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« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2021, 04:48:16 PM »

Or, in other words:


#maiamentum
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RGM2609
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« Reply #37 on: February 22, 2021, 05:31:51 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2021, 05:35:00 PM by RGM2609 »

I have tried to get a little deeper into what this BOP poll actually says -

PAS - 49% (+13% over Sandu 2020)
PSRM - 27% (-6% over Dodon 2020)
PS - 9% (+3% over Ivanov)
PN - 6% (-11% over Usatii)

So I can understand the drop in the PSRM vote - the loss of power combined with PCRM being a choice this time. What I can not understand is who are these PN-PAS swing voters which seemingly grant a majority in this hypothetical for Sandu? Should one believe that they chose to put their anti-Dodon feelings over their geopolitical ones, why did not they do not that from the presidential already? This fictional group of over 10% of the electorate should be analyzed. Other polling groups show a massive drop in PN numbers as well, but PAS was never the main beneficiary until this poll.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #38 on: February 23, 2021, 12:05:42 PM »

The Constitutional Court declared the decree of nominalization to be illegal - now Moldova does not have a Prime Minister candidate anymore. However, the Court did not force the President to nominate the PSRM-Sor candidate, but only to consult with the parties again.

Context - For snap elections to happen, another Prime Ministerial candidate needs to be rejected. There is a PSRM-Sor majority that wants to govern but to do that they need to be nominated. Sandu does not want to do that and that is why they are attacking her decrees in court.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2021, 10:07:45 AM »

After her decree got struck down, President Sandu announced that she will not willingly nominate another PM candidate and if the Parliament has a problem with it they should just impeach her. This is probably going back to the Court lol
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #40 on: February 25, 2021, 09:31:05 PM »

After her decree got struck down, President Sandu announced that she will not willingly nominate another PM candidate and if the Parliament has a problem with it they should just impeach her. This is probably going back to the Court lol
reunited with romania problem solved. Tongue
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bigic
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« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2021, 03:24:46 PM »

After her decree got struck down, President Sandu announced that she will not willingly nominate another PM candidate and if the Parliament has a problem with it they should just impeach her. This is probably going back to the Court lol
This is a bit worrying - seems like Sandu has autocratic tendencies
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RGM2609
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« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2021, 04:06:12 PM »

After her decree got struck down, President Sandu announced that she will not willingly nominate another PM candidate and if the Parliament has a problem with it they should just impeach her. This is probably going back to the Court lol
This is a bit worrying - seems like Sandu has autocratic tendencies
The alternative was two years of a Dodon-Sor coalition government.
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bigic
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« Reply #43 on: February 28, 2021, 05:57:20 AM »

This is a bit worrying - seems like Sandu has autocratic tendencies
The alternative was two years of a Dodon-Sor coalition government.
I know - but is it really worth it to undermine norms to prevent that?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #44 on: February 28, 2021, 06:17:32 AM »

This is a bit worrying - seems like Sandu has autocratic tendencies
The alternative was two years of a Dodon-Sor coalition government.
I know - but is it really worth it to undermine norms to prevent that?
Given how bad Moldova's situation is right now, I don't know how many more oligarchic governments can it survive. I'd also argue that the majority is illegitimate given that the 2 parties were far from a majority after the election and only have one now because they have bribed other MPs to join them. So the "coalition" was not validated by the parliamentary election nor was it by the presidential election result.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2021, 11:21:38 AM »

An update on the political crisis - the country is in chaos given that the acting government with few powers was left to deal with the vaccine situation and a growing spike in cases caused by the British variant on its own. As the gridlock continues, the President is likely to get her way unless PSRM impeaches her or the Court orders her to nominate the socialist candidate. If neither of these 2 things happens, the Parliament will be dissolved at the end of the month given how long the country has been functioning without a government.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2021, 03:56:22 PM »

Given how hard Moldova has been hit by the wave of new COVID cases, so hard that its healthcare system is collapsing, President Sandu has demanded that the Parliament should institute a lockdown. PSRM has rejected that option, however, this demand will likely be used in the potential electoral campaign if snap elections are to be held this spring. The people oppose another lockdown and the socialists could make good use out of these feelings.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #47 on: March 16, 2021, 10:10:41 AM »

Breaking - It would appear as if, given the collapse of the healthcare system, President Sandu has decided to compromise with PSRM, calling for consultations with the parties and even PAS said that the snap elections should be held in the summer, instead of now.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #48 on: March 16, 2021, 10:22:33 AM »

Sandu has proposed PAS leader Igor Grosu for the Prime Ministership.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #49 on: March 16, 2021, 04:11:09 PM »

Dodon has now announced that PSRM will NOT vote for the new PM candidate, and thus the Sor Party will probably refuse too, meaning that the candidate will get rejected. If he gets to a vote in Parliament and is officially rejected, the legislative institution is officially dissolved and the country goes to snap elections. Obviously, the socialists can not let that happen, so they will try to cancel the nominalization decree yet again. The former one was canceled because there was a certified majority candidate, but that said candidate has now withdrawn from consideration. It remains to be seen what will happen next, however the deadline of automatic snap elections at the end of March looms large.
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