If at midnight on Nov 3rd you were told Democrats would get a trifecta, what happenend?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This was probably the lowest point for Democrats; it was clear that they were going to lose FL by greater margin than 2016 which was the only swing state which had most of it's vote counted. Trump held massive leads in the big 3, and Biden's leads in OH and NC were evaporating fast. In the House it was clear Democrats were seriously underperforming expectations, and in the Senate, it looked like Tillis and Collins would win, and even if Perdue did get pushed slightly below 50% most wrote off the Georgia runoff, especially if Biden was victorious.

If on election night at midnight someone told you Democrats would get a trifecta heading into Biden's first term, what would you suspect had ended up happenning?

[DaleCooper]

I would think that they won the Georgia runoffs. I'm pretty sure that would be the only option.

[Epaminondas]

Wasn't there a fairly clear path to the trifecta through Maine and North Carolina at that time? Even Montana wasn't out of the picture yet.

[ultraviolet]

Wasn't there a fairly clear path to the trifecta through Maine and North Carolina at that time? Even Montana wasn't out of the picture yet.

North Carolina was still on the table, and perhaps there was some small hope for Maine because RCV. Not MT though

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Iowa was slow on the vote counting, so I’d have said Ernst and Tillis lost, Biden won North Carolina, and the two Georgia seats (or at least one) stayed red.

[Ferguson97]

Mail-in ballots were ridiculously Democratic.

[It's Time.]

I'd assume that everything would go the same, but Cunningham wins (Biden wins NC too) and Ossoff loses.

[Kuumo]

The Presidential election map would be the same but with Biden winning North Carolina instead of Georgia. Cunningham would defeat Tillis by less than 10,000 votes. Perdue would defeat Ossoff by winning a majority in November, but Warnock would still win the runoff against Loeffler in January.

[TML]

Wasn't there a fairly clear path to the trifecta through Maine and North Carolina at that time? Even Montana wasn't out of the picture yet.

In terms of Montana, the Senate race was called by the AP at 11:49 pm Mountain Time (which was equivalent to 1:49 am Eastern Time, after midnight). Despite that, however, I actually monitored the returns from that race that night and compared them to some key benchmarks provided by a certain user on this forum, and as soon as the first few counties started reporting results, I quickly had a sense of where the race was likely headed, even though the race wasn’t officially called until nearly four hours later. Thus, even if we were to turn back the clock to midnight Eastern Time on Election night, I would still have concluded - based on the returns at the time and the benchmarks mentioned before - that this seat was likely going to end up as a Republican hold.

[DaleCooper]

Am I misremembering? I seem to recall that North Carolina looked like a lost cause relatively early in the evening, not much later than Florida.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

1. There were way more mail-in ballots left to be counted than I thought.

2. Donald Trump did something really, really stupid that rallied Georgia voters against him.

[Motorcity]

I would assume Democrats won both Georgia run-offs

I was scared at midnight. I thought Trump would get another four years. Than Biden spoke and he seemed so confident. His exact words were "I spoke with my advisors and things look really good in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia"

I was confused.

It turned out that both campaigns used computers to predict down to the damn precinct level even on election night

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would assume Democrats won both Georgia run-offs

I was scared at midnight. I thought Trump would get another four years. Than Biden spoke and he seemed so confident. His exact words were "I spoke with my advisors and things look really good in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia"

I was confused.

It turned out that both campaigns used computers to predict down to the damn precinct level even on election night

Biden pretty much got the entire electoral map correct on election night I think; every state he said he would flip flipped and nothing outside of that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ph8dqqlsKI

On e-night, Biden said he would win AZ/MI/WI/PA and they seemed to be in a good standing in GA. MN had just been called.

[Mr. Smith]

In the Senate, I'd guess Alaska was a dark-horse upset, NC flipped, and Ossoff barely made it.

In the House, I'd guess McAdams, Cox, and the other vulnerables not called by that point held on.

And Biden won everywhere contested.