English mega-local elections, 2021

[Benjamin Frank]

What is it with Lib Dems become a 'rich people's party' in London?

They - and their predecessor parties - have had the ability to do well with People Of Money since more or less the 1960s. It just hasn't always been constant - there's ebb and flow, as is the nature of such things.

Fiscally conservative socially liberal, I presume.  How American!

[vileplume]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

[vileplume]

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as exceptionally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

This. The Lib Dems do best with comfortably off, educated suburbanites with a globalist worldview. Twickenham is full of these types of people. They do rather less well with the filthy rich, corporate lawyer/banker, laissez faire types that are very numerous in a place like Barnes.

Are those types particularly present in Barnes? More so across the river I should say.

Yes they are present, less so than in Chelsea but much more so than in the rest of Richmond-upon-Thames. It's hardly surprising that in the Tory meltdown in Richmond borough in the local elections of 2018 the only ward they won a full slate of councillors in was Barnes, with Mortlake & Barnes Common being their second best (winning 2/3 and missing out on the third seat by 1 vote).

[Conservatopia]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

[YL]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

I don't think the suggestion involves adding either Almondsbury or Thornbury to Bristol, just the contiguous urban area: Filton, Stoke Gifford, Sadly Broke, Mangotsfield, Kingswood.  I don't know the Kingswood side but the Filton area feels like part of Bristol.

I'd expand Nottingham and Leicester as well.

</pitchforkbait>

[YL]

Rotherham.  First map is leading party in each ward, second is seats won.  Very striking geographical pattern with the Tories doing well in Rother Valley constituency almost regardless of demographics, except that just as in the UK-wide picture Labour did better in Wales.





(Independent is white in the first map, grey in the second.  Lilac is the Rotherham Democratic Party, a localist UKIP splinter, though one of their councillors is ex-Labour.)

[Estrella]

Lilac is the Rotherham Democratic Party, a localist UKIP splinter, though one of their councillors is ex-Labour.)

I suppose it's not really an issue today, but was there any local political fallout from The Scandal, helping either these people or UKIP?

[YL]

Lilac is the Rotherham Democratic Party, a localist UKIP splinter, though one of their councillors is ex-Labour.)

I suppose it's not really an issue today, but was there any local political fallout from The Scandal, helping either these people or UKIP?

That's how they got their original break, and I'm sure there are still some lingering effects.  The local Labour party still comes across as not entirely a happy ship; several councillors have left recently, including the one who won for the RDP in Rotherham West ward.

[beesley]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

It's also quite a large area. Filton is actually the largest UK settlement beginning with F, and I doubt people in the US equivalent want to be governed by Dallas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very striking geographical pattern with the Tories doing well in Rother Valley constituency almost regardless of demographics, except that just as in the UK-wide picture Labour did better in Wales.

One of several cases where there was a definite specific bounce in a recently gained constituency.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Question about Sunderland: why has Labour's vote held up relatively well in the non-sunderland parts of the eponymous district like Washington, but collapsed in the city proper?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Question about Sunderland: why has Labour's vote held up relatively well in the non-sunderland parts of the eponymous district like Washington, but collapsed in the city proper?

A lot of the scandals have revolved around events in and councillors from the city proper. But it is also a bit of a theme in Co. Durham that Labour have held up better outside the main towns and cities this set of elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

It's also quite a large area. Filton is actually the largest UK settlement beginning with F, and I doubt people in the US equivalent want to be governed by Dallas.

Now there's a classic bit of useless information

Though it is actually joined to the Bristol conurbation and has been for ages.

(and the likes of Yate still aren't)

[vileplume]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

I went to Uni there and because I don't tend to get on all that well with the stereotypical Bristol Uni students, a large proportion of my friends from my time there are locals so I like to think I know the area pretty well.

My suggestion would not be to put Almondsbury or Thornbury into Bristol, that would be absolutely ridiculous. I would give these areas back to Gloucestershire proper and transfer the built up areas of South Gloucestershire district  to Bristol City as the people from these places see themselves as being from Bristol.

[vileplume]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

It's also quite a large area. Filton is actually the largest UK settlement beginning with F, and I doubt people in the US equivalent want to be governed by Dallas.

People here would honestly prefer it, as their identity is Bristolian and so they'd be happy to be governed by the city that they see as theirs. Doing something silly and trying to add Yate to Bristol would bring the pitchforks well and truly out.

[jaymichaud]

What is it with Lib Dems become a 'rich people's party' in London?

They - and their predecessor parties - have had the ability to do well with People Of Money since more or less the 1960s. It just hasn't always been constant - there's ebb and flow, as is the nature of such things.

Fiscally conservative socially liberal, I presume.  How American!

aren’t they pretty fiscally centrist?

[Geoffrey Howe]

What is it with Lib Dems become a 'rich people's party' in London?

They - and their predecessor parties - have had the ability to do well with People Of Money since more or less the 1960s. It just hasn't always been constant - there's ebb and flow, as is the nature of such things.

Fiscally conservative socially liberal, I presume.  How American!

aren’t they pretty fiscally centrist?

I'm not sure they have any policies other than, depending on their mood, a bit more generous than the Tories; or a bit less generous than Labour.

[beesley]

What is it with Lib Dems become a 'rich people's party' in London?

They - and their predecessor parties - have had the ability to do well with People Of Money since more or less the 1960s. It just hasn't always been constant - there's ebb and flow, as is the nature of such things.

Fiscally conservative socially liberal, I presume.  How American!

aren’t they pretty fiscally centrist?

I'm not sure they have any policies other than, depending on their mood, a bit more generous than the Tories; or a bit less generous than Labour.

You've reminded me of that Nick Clegg quote that went along the lines of saying they would 'give a heart to the Tories and a head to Labour'.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes, I was thinking of that.

[mileslunn]

While probably won't happen before 2024, anybody see a similar re-alignment in UK to US?  I am thinking Red Wall shifts permanently to Tories, but Labour is able to gain many shires, home counties in South long term in exchange so rather than divide by class, divide is more by education as is case in US.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You don't have to make the same post endlessly, you know.

[Conservatopia]

There is a Mayor of the West of England? Ridiculous country.

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is even more ridiculous, Cambridge and Peterborough are over 40 miles away from each other. At least the 'West of England' is basically Greater Bristol (the boundaries of Bristol city really should be expanded but that's a whole other issue) plus Bath and a handful of other towns (Yate etc.). The name 'West of England' is hilariously dire though as it could mean practically anywhere in England west of Oxford.

Over my dead body.

They definitely should be expanded. People from places like Bradley Stoke, Filton, Patchway, Kingswood, Mangotsfield etc. consider themselves as being from Bristol and many are quite confused as to why they come under South Gloucestershire instead. If it were up to me I'd return Yate, Thornbury and the rural areas to Gloucestershire proper and bring the rest into Bristol dissolving the 'West of England' area in the process.

You from these parts?  Not a snide question, genuinely interested.

Whilst those places might look close on a map they aren't actually all that near and culturally they are rather different.  Almondsbury is rather unlike Lawrence Weston and Thornbury nothing like Brislington.

I went to Uni there and because I don't tend to get on all that well with the stereotypical Bristol Uni students, a large proportion of my friends from my time there are locals so I like to think I know the area pretty well.

My suggestion would not be to put Almondsbury or Thornbury into Bristol, that would be absolutely ridiculous. I would give these areas back to Gloucestershire proper and transfer the built up areas of South Gloucestershire district  to Bristol City as the people from these places see themselves as being from Bristol.

That's interesting.

I'm sorry it seems I misunderstood the scale of what you were proposing.  Would I end up governed by Bristol?  If not then I'm probably chill with your idea.

[Geoffrey Howe]

While probably won't happen before 2024, anybody see a similar re-alignment in UK to US?  I am thinking Red Wall shifts permanently to Tories, but Labour is able to gain many shires, home counties in South long term in exchange so rather than divide by class, divide is more by education as is case in US.

Rachel Sylvester suggests something fairly interesting: that it is more surprising these places weren't already voting Tory. Places in the North with similar demographics, levels of home ownership etc. to places in the South were voting to the left of the South, due to atavistic hostility to the Conservative Party. Brexit and Corbyn have shattered this, and these people who 'want to get on in life' - which they perceive the Tories as letting them do - are now voting as you might have expected.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/labour-needs-to-embrace-aspiration-to-appeal-to-the-whole-country-not-just-the-red-wall

[Geoffrey Howe]

English assembly when?

Very unlikely and certainly not under this government. We can dream.

Until we get a Wessex Assembly I will shout "Free Wessex" outside Parliament every day. 😠

Just like that Steve Bray bloke.

Steve is still at it. Today he has a sign saying 'Brexit wasn't worth it.'

[adma]

While probably won't happen before 2024, anybody see a similar re-alignment in UK to US?  I am thinking Red Wall shifts permanently to Tories, but Labour is able to gain many shires, home counties in South long term in exchange so rather than divide by class, divide is more by education as is case in US.

Rachel Sylvester suggests something fairly interesting: that it is more surprising these places weren't already voting Tory. Places in the North with similar demographics, levels of home ownership etc. to places in the South were voting to the left of the South, due to atavistic hostility to the Conservative Party. Brexit and Corbyn have shattered this, and these people who 'want to get on in life' - which they perceive the Tories as letting them do - are now voting as you might have expected.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/labour-needs-to-embrace-aspiration-to-appeal-to-the-whole-country-not-just-the-red-wall

And Labour "home county" gains will be limited by who and what Labour *is*--that is, you'd really have to set up a "Lab Dem" unified entity to consolidate that kind of breakthrough, much like the grand coalitions behind the US Dems and the Libs in Canada...