English mega-local elections, 2021
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #325 on: May 11, 2021, 08:00:39 AM »

^ There's this issue right now for Labour in the home counties where the Tories have significant potential downsides if things go south for them nationally, but local and historical factors means it is not Labour but the Lib-Dems positioned to flip these seats. The Lib-Dem micro-realignment has led to better results for the party in this region at the expense of the periphery, which doesn't help Labour.
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cp
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« Reply #326 on: May 11, 2021, 09:02:38 AM »

^ There's this issue right now for Labour in the home counties where the Tories have significant potential downsides if things go south for them nationally, but local and historical factors means it is not Labour but the Lib-Dems positioned to flip these seats. The Lib-Dem micro-realignment has led to better results for the party in this region at the expense of the periphery, which doesn't help Labour.

As someone who lives in the Home Counties, I can confirm this, though it's even more dire for Labour than it might appear on first glance. The Tory leads in most of the seats in this area are *huge*. It will take an enormous shift to win more than a handful of seats. What's more there aren't actually very many where the demographics are changing (at all, never mind quickly enough to matter by 2023/4); I'd say maybe 20 at the most. Compounding the problem, the Lib Dem's presence very uneven. There are great local campaigns in places like Esher and Walton but they're virtually non-existent or very badly organized in places like Dorking or Tunbridge Wells.

And, as Oryx points out, this is exclusively to the benefit of the LD's, as Labour - even without Corbyn - is just plain loathed by a large proportion of the voting residents. I wouldn't be surprised if, approaching election day, some floating LD/Tory voters return to the Tories to stop a minority Labour government if it looks likely.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #327 on: May 11, 2021, 09:32:08 AM »

I think sometimes people forget that there have always been areas with good Labour votes* in the Home Counties as there have always been areas in that broad region where it does not always feel as if all is well and the sun is forever shining. Most of England is very much a patchwork, sociologically speaking, with mixtures of affluence, poverty and the huge area in between. The exact balance of that patchwork differs from place to place, that's all. And over time the general tendency is for everywhere in England to resemble increasingly everywhere else in England. Labour is in general far too inclined to think in terms of region in any case, a fundamental (and increasingly damaging) error that is linked to its tendency - and the tendency of its affiliates - to be organised along regional lines.

*And, historically in particular, strong local government presences!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #328 on: May 11, 2021, 10:19:14 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2021, 10:22:42 AM by Southern Deputy Speaker Punxsutawney Phil »

^ There's this issue right now for Labour in the home counties where the Tories have significant potential downsides if things go south for them nationally, but local and historical factors means it is not Labour but the Lib-Dems positioned to flip these seats. The Lib-Dem micro-realignment has led to better results for the party in this region at the expense of the periphery, which doesn't help Labour.

As someone who lives in the Home Counties, I can confirm this, though it's even more dire for Labour than it might appear on first glance. The Tory leads in most of the seats in this area are *huge*. It will take an enormous shift to win more than a handful of seats. What's more there aren't actually very many where the demographics are changing (at all, never mind quickly enough to matter by 2023/4); I'd say maybe 20 at the most. Compounding the problem, the Lib Dem's presence very uneven. There are great local campaigns in places like Esher and Walton but they're virtually non-existent or very badly organized in places like Dorking or Tunbridge Wells.

And, as Oryx points out, this is exclusively to the benefit of the LD's, as Labour - even without Corbyn - is just plain loathed by a large proportion of the voting residents. I wouldn't be surprised if, approaching election day, some floating LD/Tory voters return to the Tories to stop a minority Labour government if it looks likely.
The Tories are quite strong in many parts of the Home Counties. Surrey in particular has returned only Conservative MPs for the past 60 years (though that could change in the next GE if the Lib Dems do well enough).
EDIT: the streak is both less and more impressive than at first glance. Wikipedia says a Lib Dem won a seat in 2001, and 2 Liberals won a seat in 1906. Still, total- or near-total Tory sweeps in Surrey goes all the way back to 1885.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #329 on: May 11, 2021, 10:46:39 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2021, 12:50:57 PM by Geoffrey Howe »

^ There's this issue right now for Labour in the home counties where the Tories have significant potential downsides if things go south for them nationally, but local and historical factors means it is not Labour but the Lib-Dems positioned to flip these seats. The Lib-Dem micro-realignment has led to better results for the party in this region at the expense of the periphery, which doesn't help Labour.

As someone who lives in the Home Counties, I can confirm this, though it's even more dire for Labour than it might appear on first glance. The Tory leads in most of the seats in this area are *huge*. It will take an enormous shift to win more than a handful of seats. What's more there aren't actually very many where the demographics are changing (at all, never mind quickly enough to matter by 2023/4); I'd say maybe 20 at the most. Compounding the problem, the Lib Dem's presence very uneven. There are great local campaigns in places like Esher and Walton but they're virtually non-existent or very badly organized in places like Dorking or Tunbridge Wells.

And, as Oryx points out, this is exclusively to the benefit of the LD's, as Labour - even without Corbyn - is just plain loathed by a large proportion of the voting residents. I wouldn't be surprised if, approaching election day, some floating LD/Tory voters return to the Tories to stop a minority Labour government if it looks likely.
The Tories are quite strong in many parts of the Home Counties. Surrey in particular has returned only Conservative MPs for the past 60 years (though that could change in the next GE if the Lib Dems do well enough).
EDIT: the streak is both less and more impressive than at first glance. Wikipedia says a Lib Dem won a seat in 2001, and 2 Liberals won a seat in 1906. Still, total- or near-total Tory sweeps in Surrey goes all the way back to 1885.

Yes, there is a lot of reflexive Conservatism (big c, though small c too) in these parts. I think they are viewed as the 'sane' party who won't do anything crazy. I probably fall into this too, but I suspect people there hold the Tories to a lower standard than other parties.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #330 on: May 11, 2021, 11:04:45 AM »

People are of course influenced there by a media that most certainly does that.
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thumb21
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« Reply #331 on: May 13, 2021, 03:16:50 AM »

I can't find the ward results but Andy Burnham's campaign have claimed that they won every single ward in Greater Manchester.


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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #332 on: May 14, 2021, 07:14:27 AM »

In a surprise development Tories, LibDems and Greens appear to have formed an anti-Labour alliance on the Greater London Assembly - fair to say that most did not see this coming.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #333 on: May 14, 2021, 10:29:36 AM »

In a surprise development Tories, LibDems and Greens appear to have formed an anti-Labour alliance on the Greater London Assembly - fair to say that most did not see this coming.
It's only for the purposes of allocating commitie seats, london is fairly executive cenetred in terms of governance.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #334 on: May 14, 2021, 10:44:11 AM »

London 'ward level data will be published on the week of Monday 17 May.'

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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #335 on: May 18, 2021, 06:30:16 AM »

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as exceptionally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

Fwiw, in the GLA elections, Richmond sometimes voted Liberal, but Twickenham always voted Tory.
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vileplume
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« Reply #336 on: May 18, 2021, 02:21:32 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 06:02:35 PM by vileplume »

It won't worry them because they did well in their region (the SW were they almost won the assembly seat) but the Lib Dem performance was pretty bad.

Any thoughts as to why the LDs did so well in the South West constituency? It's obviously a good area for them, but they did worse in the list (where they had a better chance) and poorly in the mayoral (10%). Did the candidate campaign a lot?

For people who know Richmond well: why is the bit north of the river (Twickenham, Teddington) more Lib Dem than south (Kew, Mortlake, Barnes)?

Twickenham and Teddington are somewhat less wealthy. They are very solidly upper middle-class, but not quite as exceptionally affluent as Barnes and surrounds.

Fwiw, in the GLA elections, Richmond sometimes voted Liberal, but Twickenham always voted Tory.

That was a long time ago. The demographics were different back then.

Back then the Twickenham constituency and its neighbouring areas across the river in Kingston & Surbiton were snooty, upper middle class, quite 'provincial' in attitudes and solidly right wing. A good example of the type of people who lived in these places the time can be typified (albeit in an exaggerated way) by the character of Margo Leadbetter from the 70s sitcom 'The Good Life' who lived in Surbiton. Richmond meanwhile was home to a much more 'liberal, middle class intellectual' population that was unsurprisingly (even back then) less favourable to the Tories.

Fast forward to now, Richmond, and especially Barnes, have become so expensive that only the super rich can afford them and thus these areas now chock full of corporate lawyers, hedge fund managers etc. with the liberal middle classes priced out. The places these people have typically been priced out to are the old Tory strongholds further out: Twickenham, Kingston, Surbiton etc. The modern day Margo Leadbetters of this world have meanwhile long left the Capital for smart/picturesque towns and villages dotted across the South East.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #337 on: May 18, 2021, 02:31:38 PM »

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #338 on: May 18, 2021, 02:36:04 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 02:39:56 PM by Alcibiades »

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

Esher and Walton would be solidly Tory (or at any rate much more Tory than at the last election) if it weren’t for the fact that its local MP is an arch-Brexiteer.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #339 on: May 18, 2021, 02:51:49 PM »

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

Esher and Walton would be solidly Tory (or at any rate much more Tory than at the last election) if it weren’t for the fact that its local MP is an arch-Brexiteer.

Though it did vote solidly Tory in 2017. I haven’t watched this programme, but the character from the above description could well be a Brexiteer - ‘provincial’ and ‘right wing.’
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #340 on: May 18, 2021, 02:54:11 PM »

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

Esher and Walton would be solidly Tory (or at any rate much more Tory than at the last election) if it weren’t for the fact that its local MP is an arch-Brexiteer.

Though it did vote solidly Tory in 2017. I haven’t watched this programme, but the character from the above description could well be a Brexiteer - ‘provincial’ and ‘right wing.’

Esher and Walton is definitely more similar to Richmond than such provincial right-wing towns in the South East.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #341 on: May 18, 2021, 02:59:25 PM »

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

Esher and Walton would be solidly Tory (or at any rate much more Tory than at the last election) if it weren’t for the fact that its local MP is an arch-Brexiteer.

Though it did vote solidly Tory in 2017. I haven’t watched this programme, but the character from the above description could well be a Brexiteer - ‘provincial’ and ‘right wing.’

Esher and Walton is definitely more similar to Richmond than such provincial right-wing towns in the South East.


What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #342 on: May 18, 2021, 03:02:02 PM »

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

Quote from: Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells
SIR – Being present at the unveiling of the plaque on Thursday last week on the Pantiles, I was surprised when the National Anthem was played to see that in a place like Tunbridge Wells, which is noted for its loyalty and calls itself "Royal", there should be people who refused to remove their hats. Are such people Communists? If they are, Tunbridge Wells should be no place for such as they. We can do without them.

Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain.
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beesley
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« Reply #343 on: May 18, 2021, 03:57:47 PM »

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

Quote from: Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells
SIR – Being present at the unveiling of the plaque on Thursday last week on the Pantiles, I was surprised when the National Anthem was played to see that in a place like Tunbridge Wells, which is noted for its loyalty and calls itself "Royal", there should be people who refused to remove their hats. Are such people Communists? If they are, Tunbridge Wells should be no place for such as they. We can do without them.

Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain.

Nearly all of the Regency Towns did - Brighton and Hove, Bath, Cheltenham, Leamington Spa did as well. They tend to be wealthier and attract certain types of people. Tunbridge Wells is the most Tory of all of these. Perhaps nearby Maidstone is a better example of what you're thinking.

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Alcibiades
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« Reply #344 on: May 18, 2021, 04:01:17 PM »

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #345 on: May 18, 2021, 04:13:34 PM »

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

I think the Beaconsfield constituency could be a good one. Very right wing (and marginal on Brexit), giving outfits like the Referendum Party good scores. Similarly East Surrey (Geoffrey Howe's constituency).

Maybe Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) in fact. Is is white-flight-ish?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #346 on: May 18, 2021, 04:16:48 PM »

What are some good examples? (I was thinking Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells, though I don’t know what the town is actually like.)

As you said Tunbridge Wells did vote Remain - it is a rather upscale town overall, not humdrum enough to be the kind of place you mentioned. I’m not that familiar with the area, but Hemel Hempstead seems like the it could be a decent example, as well as Aylesbury and Bracknell. Something worth noting is that Remain vote seems to be fairly strongly correlated with class in the Home Counties.

I think the Beaconsfield constituency could be a good one. Very right wing (and marginal on Brexit), giving outfits like the Referendum Party good scores. Similarly East Surrey (Geoffrey Howe's constituency).

Maybe Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) in fact. Is is white-flight-ish?

Yes, Beaconsfield constituency is a good call (although probably not the town itself). What I do know about Northwest Surrey (Spelthorne and Michael Gove’s constituency Surrey Heath) is that it is the least wealthy part of the county. East Surrey is also similar.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #347 on: May 18, 2021, 04:54:22 PM »

Also, Conservatives lost their majority in Tunbridge Wells this time, it's now "no overall control".
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vileplume
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« Reply #348 on: May 18, 2021, 05:13:44 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2021, 05:59:20 PM by vileplume »

I was commenting on AI's (2007) assertion that the more 'hum-drum' areas of SW London were more Tory than the richer areas. What you say might well be true - though by its logic perhaps Esher & Walton should be solidly Tory - but I was looking for evidence supporting the above conclusion.

In any case, do you have any statistics for all these 'corporate lawyers' you are so fond of referring to?

I don't think they provide information on such specific things. But what I can give you is this:

The total amount of income tax paid to the treasury by constituency in the financial year 2018/2019:

Richmond Park: £1,500 million
Twickenham: £945 million
Kingston & Surbiton: £524 million

Average income by constituency over the same financial year:

Richmond Park: £86,200
Twickenham: £61,200
Kingston & Surbiton: £43,500

Both Richmond Park and Twickenham have similar rates of Home Ownership and low deprivation (Kingston & Surbiton is quite deprived in places), but as these figures indicate, the primary difference between the two is that Richmond Park has significantly more very rich people than Twickenham (corporate law merely being an example of an industry such people may be employed in). True, Richmond Park is nowhere near as insanely rich as Chelsea & Fulham is but its proximity to central London (and likely its fairly non-urban feel) has clearly attracted some of this demographic to the area. Super rich Remainers are unsurprisingly more forgiving of the Tories than those of just comfortably off means, hence Richmond Park is the better of the two seats for them.

As a side note, the difference between Labour held Putney, which also has some of this super-rich demographic, and Richmond Park (or indeed Twickenham) is that Putney has a way lower rates of home ownership and significantly more deprivation. It goes without saying that renting increases economic insecurity, thus massively increasing the propensity of voters to support Labour.
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vileplume
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« Reply #349 on: May 18, 2021, 05:21:19 PM »

Also, Conservatives lost their majority in Tunbridge Wells this time, it's now "no overall control".

The District Council there is/was extremely unpopular and has been for a number of years e.g. https://www.kentonline.co.uk/tunbridge-wells/news/council-told-this-is-madness-210656/ .

The Tories held up better there in County Council elections.

Be careful in reading too much into any local election result. There are things that can be taken from them, but a lot of these elections are genuinely just decided by local issues.

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