English mega-local elections, 2021

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Whatever you think of Norris/Bo Jo/Goldsmith, they are all galaxies ahead of Bailey on having basic political skills.

[CumbrianLefty]

Goldsmith's 2016 campaign says hi

[CumbrianLefty]

No fewer than 20 (!) candidates will contest the London mayoralty.

(and yes, a certain embittered divorcee is one of them)

[YL]

Shaun Bailey (Con)
Kam Balayev (Renew)
Siân Berry (Green)
Count Binface (Count Binface for Mayor of London)
Valerie Brown (Burning Pink Party) [1]
Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) [2]
Max Fosh (Independent) [3]
Laurence Fox (Reclaim Party) [4]
Peter Gammons (UKIP) [5]
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare Party)
Steve Kelleher (SDP) [6]
Sadiq Khan (Labour)
David Kurten (Heritage Party) [7]
Farah London (Independent) [8]
Nims Obunge (Independent) [9]
Niko Omilana (Independent) [10]
Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)
Mandu Reid (Women's Equality Party)
Brian Rose (London Real Party) [11]

[1] This lot, connected to Extinction Rebellion.
[2] Yes, Jeremy's brother.  Anti-lockdown, anti-vax, among other things.
[3] His Twitter feed calls him a "YouTuber".
[4] Tedious anti-"woke" actor, also anti-lockdown.
[5] Yes, he really is called that.
[6] The Continuity Continuity Continuity SDP, I suppose.  Functionally yet another UKIP splinter.
[7] Elected to the Assembly as UKIP in 2016.
[8] "Entrepreneur"
[9] CEO of something called the Peace Alliance
[10] Another "YouTuber"
[11] This one is described as a "podcaster" as well as a YouTuber.

[vileplume]

Goldsmith's 2016 campaign says hi

Honestly, no Tory was winning the London mayoralty in 2016 and Goldsmith's 13.6% loss in the second round was probably about the best the party could've hoped for.

Goldsmith's anti-Muslim tactics didn't actually hurt him as the type of people outraged were broadly never going to vote for him in the first place. However this tactic did massively help him in the Hindu-heavy Harrow where his performance was abnormally good for a Tory. He also absolutely crushed it in the Jewish areas of Barnet and in the more 'provincial' outer suburbs, whilst performing strongly in the upper middle class, remainy parts of the capital (save for Wandsworth, which was Kahn's home area) such as Richmond, Chelsea, Fulham, S. Ken and the posh parts of Westminster. The common idea that the rich elite areas of London were outraged by Goldsmith's anti-Muslim dog whistle (or perhaps more siren) campaign is not borne out in the data.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories weren't winning the mayoralty in 2016 whatever happened, no.

Whether their actual result was the best they could achieve is a slightly different question.

And of course the Goldsmith campaign will have appealed to certain people, but the reputational cost to him was considerable - and probably something he never fully recovered from.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Tories weren't winning the mayoralty in 2016 whatever happened, no.

Whether their actual result was the best they could achieve is a slightly different question.

IMO it seems telling that the first-round popular vote figures for Khan and Goldsmith were almost exactly the same as the London-wide ones for Labour and the Tories in 2015.

[beesley]

I had the pleasure of contributing to the compiling of this spreadsheet featuring all the parties standing at the English local elections. I was unfortunate enough to have to fill out the sheet for Buckinghamshire (a 147 seat council is too large!). Some interesting smaller parties standing across many councils.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MxxoY0HCLwzUELvV9N8xJiGBcVguI9aNsys9xPksUvs/edit#gid=1689118743

[Conservatopia]

I had the pleasure of contributing to the compiling of this spreadsheet featuring all the parties standing at the English local elections. I was unfortunate enough to have to fill out the sheet for Buckinghamshire (a 147 seat council is too large!). Some interesting smaller parties standing across many councils.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MxxoY0HCLwzUELvV9N8xJiGBcVguI9aNsys9xPksUvs/edit#gid=1689118743

Brilliant spreadsheet!

Hartlepool is an interesting one.  For obvious reasons the Tories ought to be targeting it.  Yet they don't have a full slate of candidates.  In fact they have less than their junior coalition partners in the VPP!

For the most part though the two main parties seem to have done a fair job of standing a candidate in nearly every ward.

[beesley]

For the most part though the two main parties seem to have done a fair job of standing a candidate in nearly every ward.

Yeah. I was actually most impressed with the number of Green candidates, fielding full slates in several councils including my own. In some Tory held councils down my ends they're fielding more candidates than Labour or the Liberal Democrats. In my own council the TUSC are also fielding candidates in many wards.

[YL]

My choice is Labour, Lib Dem, Tory, Green and the Yorkshire Party...

Sheffield elects by thirds, with an extra vacancy in Richmond ward, so 29 out of 84 seats are up for election.  The current situation (counting vacancies with their party) is Labour 49, Lib Dem 26, Green 8, Independent (elected as UKIP) 1, but if the ward results were to be the same as the last election (in 2019), Labour would gain the Independent seat but lose five seats to the Lib Dems and three to the Greens, leading to Labour and the opposition being tied: Lab 42, Lib Dem 31, Green 11.  There's a fourth potential Green gain, Walkley, which was a near miss for them last time, so it's definitely possible we could get a Lib Dem/Green administration.

The Independent, Jack Clarkson, is standing again, and his ward (Stocksbridge & Upper Don, the ward which least makes sense as part of the Sheffield council area) is apparently being targeted by the Lib Dems and the Tories as well, so who knows what will happen there.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/BrexitBuster/status/1381958718011543557?s=20

Now this is gold.

[warandwar]

For the most part though the two main parties seem to have done a fair job of standing a candidate in nearly every ward.

Yeah. I was actually most impressed with the number of Green candidates, fielding full slates in several councils including my own. In some Tory held councils down my ends they're fielding more candidates than Labour or the Liberal Democrats. In my own council the TUSC are also fielding candidates in many wards.

Small error. The CPGB is not standing candidates. The CPB is.

[beesley]

For the most part though the two main parties seem to have done a fair job of standing a candidate in nearly every ward.

Yeah. I was actually most impressed with the number of Green candidates, fielding full slates in several councils including my own. In some Tory held councils down my ends they're fielding more candidates than Labour or the Liberal Democrats. In my own council the TUSC are also fielding candidates in many wards.

Small error. The CPGB is not standing candidates. The CPB is.

I thought I had responded to this, but the CPB appeared to be standing candidates under the CPGB banner.

[beesley]

Here are the candidate lists for the London mayoral and assembly elections (not SOPNs):

Mayor of London: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/mayoral-candidates
London Assembly - Constituency: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/london-assembly-candidates-constituency
London Assembly - 11 London-Wide List Seats: https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/candidates/london-assembly-candidates-london-wide

Bizarrely the TUSC List has 25 candidates for list 11 seats (they won't get one). The leader of Reform UK Richard Tice, is his party's candidate in Havering and Redbridge. All in all though, there seems to be an equal split between major political parties, vaguely credible small parties and independents and complete jokes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please note that the small tankie cult calling itself the CPGB is not the same organisation as the CPGB, the legal successor to which is the pressure group 'Unlock Democracy', the present head of which is former LibDem MP Tom Brake.

[warandwar]

Please note that the small tankie cult calling itself the CPGB is not the same organisation as the CPGB, the legal successor to which is the pressure group 'Unlock Democracy', the present head of which is former LibDem MP Tom Brake.

There is the CPGB (M-L), descended from Harpal Brar's little cult of Punjabi Maoists, now allied with George Galloway. Then there is the CPB (M-L), formerly lead by Reg Birch, now a slowly dying loveable family (not quite as loveable as the old Maoist who split and made a one man maoist cell in Nottingham. He was a lovely man from all i've heard). Then there is the CPGB (PCC), Left-Kautskyite publishers of the Weekly Worker and behind Labour Party Marxists. Finally there is the CPB, which is descended from hardline Stalinists who controlled the Morning Star in the 80s and broke with the CPGB over the "New Times" debate. They still control the Morning Star and the YCL and, like seemingly everyone in Britain, have spent most of the pandemic arguing about whether or not TERF is a slur. They have pivoted to whining that they aren't allowed to call themselves the "Communist Party of Scotland" in Scotland, presumably because "Unlock Democracy" has kept up their 4 decade long blood fued with the CPB and refuses to let them use "CPGB."

[GoTfan]

Real talk though, Count Binface actually has a decent manifesto:

https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1384868302019829766

[joevsimp]

The leader of Reform UK Richard Tice, is his party's candidate in Havering and Redbridge

Is he not running in the Hartlepool By-election on the same day as well, busy bee.

[CumbrianLefty]

The leader of Reform UK Richard Tice, is his party's candidate in Havering and Redbridge

Is he not running in the Hartlepool By-election on the same day as well, busy bee.

No, he stood there in the last GE but isn't this time.

Instead their candidate is someone called John Prescott (no relation)

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

Why did Ken Livingstone do so well in Richmond in 2004? It voted very heavily for Goldsmith (though he was from there) and Boris. There has been much less coverage of the race this time; I'm not sure how that'll affect the race. West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

[beesley]

West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

Yeah - lots of areas are more Tory at local level - Wandsworth likes their low council tax, though not as much as the seat results would suggest. I don't know enough about Devenish, I looked to see his stance on transport and he doesn't seem to have one bar opposing Sadiq Khan's policy - just typing @Tony_Devenish into Twitter with the issue of your choice will tell you what you need to know. Of course, when you're a London Assembly member, particularly from the non-mayoral party you can be pro or anti pretty much anything within reason.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

Yes, West Central voted Labour in the last two elections (2019 I calculated ~ 92,000 LAB to ~ 82,000 CON) (2015 ~ 100,000 CON to ~ 80,000. LAB)

[EastAnglianLefty]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:

South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.

West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.

Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.

Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.

The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.

Why did Ken Livingstone do so well in Richmond in 2004? It voted very heavily for Goldsmith (though he was from there) and Boris. There has been much less coverage of the race this time; I'm not sure how that'll affect the race. West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.

It's no longer that Tory at the local level - the Tories were very slightly ahead in raw votes in Westminster and K&C in 2018, but the Labour advantage in Hammersmith comfortably outweighed that.