GA (Atlas Intel): Ossoff/Warnock +4

[wbrocks67]

Ignore the date on there - the poll was 12/25 - 1/1

https://twitter.com/atlas_intel/status/1345802466663796738

[wbrocks67]

Favorables:

Raphael Warnock: 49/46 (+3)
Jon Ossoff: 49/47 (+2)
David Perdue: 45/50 (-5)
Kelly Loeffler: 43/50 (-7)

Barack Obama: 52/45 (+7)
Joe Biden: 48/46 (+2)
Kamala Harris: 46/49 (-3)
Donald Trump: 47/51 (-4)

The sample is 61% White, 29% black while it’s 36.2% Rep, 34.4% Dem. Sample is also Trump 47/Biden 46.

[President Johnson]

It feels like Warnock and Ossoff have the final momentum. Whether it's going to be enough is a completely different question.

[wbrocks67]

It feels like Warnock and Ossoff have the final momentum. Whether it's going to be enough is a completely different question.

Also quite interesting to me that here Warnock has the best favorability out of the bunch, given the fact that he's seen the onslaught of the attacks.

[SnowLabrador]

Decimal places in poll numbers are generally a sign of poor poll quality. Even so, the numbers seem to be moving in the Democrats' direction. Hopefully this is accurate.

[Skunk]

So which one of you dorks started a polling firm?

[wbrocks67]

Decimal places in poll numbers are generally a sign of poor poll quality. Even so, the numbers seem to be moving in the Democrats' direction. Hopefully this is accurate.

Their last AZ poll was actually a bit R-leaning (Trump +2) but wasn't any more off than the many Biden +2/3 polls we got.

[Kuumo]

So which one of you dorks started a polling firm?

I did. It needed a lot of unskewing and accounting for shy Trump voters because when I polled the forum it was Ossoff/Warnock +40.


Atlas Intel is a little-known Brazilian polling firm.

[Person Man]

Atlas was the best for the NPV. I think Democrats get the senate unless the Democratic brand in the senate is that toxic.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It feels like Warnock and Ossoff have the final momentum. Whether it's going to be enough is a completely different question.

Also quite interesting to me that here Warnock has the best favorability out of the bunch, given the fact that he's seen the onslaught of the attacks.

Yeah, I'm really surprised by this too. Maybe the attacks have backfired? I feel like the attacks against Warnock are far stronger than the attacks against Ossoff

[Matty]

This poll is 50% college educated. seems a tad high.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Victory, I knew Ossoff and WARNOCK would win that's why I predicted it in Nov. Rs have crossed over to vote D due tomorrow 2K checks

[GeorgiaModerate]

It feels like Warnock and Ossoff have the final momentum. Whether it's going to be enough is a completely different question.

Also quite interesting to me that here Warnock has the best favorability out of the bunch, given the fact that he's seen the onslaught of the attacks.

Yeah, I'm really surprised by this too. Maybe the attacks have backfired? I feel like the attacks against Warnock are far stronger than the attacks against Ossoff

I agree that there's something to the idea that the attack against Warnock have been so obviously over the top that they're backfiring.  Also, the fact that Loeffler's & Perdue's ads have been overwhelming negative may be backfiring to some extent.  Ossoff & Warnock have certainly had some negative ads too, but theirs have more of a balance between positive and negative, and I think that appeals to some voters.

[wbrocks67]

This poll is 50% college educated. seems a tad high.

I mean, it would not be surprising if the runoff electorate was more college+ than the GE.

[Alben Barkley]

It feels like Warnock and Ossoff have the final momentum. Whether it's going to be enough is a completely different question.

Considering the early vote numbers were also good I’d say it’s very promising.

This poll also has Kemp at 25% approval by the way. Seems both parties hate him now, he may be screwed in 2022.

[tagimaucia]

This was probably the best pollster of 2020 all-in-all.  The only pollster that was clearly in a top tier performance-wise in both the Dem primaries and the general election.

I don't really know anything about their methodology beyond what is stated in their pdf, but they claimed somewhere else that they do things to "control for non-response bias."

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Looks like all the MAGA cucks are standing with dear leader and sitting this one out. You love to see it!

[Matty]

Looks like all the MAGA cucks are standing with dear leader and sitting this one out. You love to see it!

it's never a good thing to actively cheer when people don't practice their sacred right to vote

[MillennialModerate]

This poll is 50% college educated. seems a tad high.

A tad?! No state has 50% college educated

[Bootes Void]

Looks like all the MAGA cucks are standing with dear leader and sitting this one out. You love to see it!

it's never a good thing to actively cheer when people don't practice their sacred right to vote

Is it okay if those people are a threat to your right to vote?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Atlas was the best for the NPV. I think Democrats get the senate unless the Democratic brand in the senate is that toxic.

Do they weight for education ? If they'd don't this poll is pure junk then

[Buzz]

Honk honk

[tagimaucia]

Atlas was the best for the NPV. I think Democrats get the senate unless the Democratic brand in the senate is that toxic.

Do they weight for education ? If they'd don't this poll is pure junk then

Their methodology seems to indicate that they do even though the split seems very wrong. Their pre-November Georgia poll showed pretty much the same education split and had Trump up by 2 (and this one has recalled November vote at Trump +1)

[Tender Branson]

That would be a good way to start 2021.

[MT Treasurer]

If Ossoff and Warnock win this race, I don’t think it will be because they ever had any 'momentum.' Notwithstanding unreliable public polling data, it’s just way too stable a race based on the fundamentals of the state and the nationalization/ramifications of the election. The only thing that might have changed the outcome would have been a better Republican GOTV operation (with Trump toning down the rhetoric/doing a few more campaign appearances) and slightly more effective Republican messaging (esp. on packing the courts rather than just throwing around the 'socialist' label 24/7), but I don’t think many voters were actually all that 'persuadable' in this race, including the fabled suburban/exurban Atlanta 'moderates.'