Was Jorgensen a spoiler for Trump?

[Bootes Void]

Her vote % was higher than some margin of victory in some states

[seeking mystical annihilation]

If they didn't vote for Trump as it stands, I doubt they would have were Jo not on the ballot. My guess is that most of her voters would've abstained or gone for other third parties were she not an option, given the nature of elections with an incumbent.

[mileslunn]

Looking at 2016 results, it appears more of Gary Johnson's vote went for Biden than Trump so at very most might have flipped Arizona and Georgia but not any of the blue wall states.  And even there my guess is wouldn't have made a different overall.

[Hammy]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

I'll add that three of the four states Biden won with less than 50%, there were probably some Green voters who voted for Jorgensen as well given the Greens were kicked off the ballot and those certainly wouldn't have been otherwise Trump voters.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No, Trump lost the Election due to fact, he thought Covid was going away and there was an uptick.

Cases are gonna go down as people resume their normal activities after the Holidays

[AGA]

[HillGoose]

If they didn't vote for Trump as it stands, I doubt they would have were Jo not on the ballot. My guess is that most of her voters would've abstained or gone for other third parties were she not an option, given the nature of elections with an incumbent.

yeah if Jo hadn’t been on the ballot i would have voted Kanye without a doubt

[SInNYC]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

Does that mean you believe Nader voters in 2000 did not cost Gore the election?

[Motorcity]

Looking at 2016 results, it appears more of Gary Johnson's vote went for Biden than Trump

LMAO

I remeber Republicans back in 2017-2018 saying that Trump was going to win big in 2020 because the Gary Johnson vote were "Never Republicans" and were going to come home to the GOP

Turns out it was Gary Johnson, not Jill Stein that cost Hillary the White House.

[PSOL]

Looking at 2016 results, it appears more of Gary Johnson's vote went for Biden than Trump

LMAO

I remeber Republicans back in 2017-2018 saying that Trump was going to win big in 2020 because the Gary Johnson vote were "Never Republicans" and were going to come home to the GOP

Turns out it was Gary Johnson, not Jill Stein that cost Hillary the White House.

It’s odd that Gary Johnson however is never blamed for this, even though it was Biden’s consolidation from this voter bloc that won him the election.

I do oh wonder why the Left is wholly blamed as a Democratic spoiler? Could it be that it’s a major goal of the Democratic Party to neutralize the success of the Left in general?

[Mr.Phips]

Looking at 2016 results, it appears more of Gary Johnson's vote went for Biden than Trump

LMAO

I remeber Republicans back in 2017-2018 saying that Trump was going to win big in 2020 because the Gary Johnson vote were "Never Republicans" and were going to come home to the GOP

Turns out it was Gary Johnson, not Jill Stein that cost Hillary the White House.

A combination of Johnson, Stein, and some anti Trump voters writing people in because they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Hillary.

[Kamala Was Right About Everything]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

I'll add that three of the four states Biden won with less than 50%, there were probably some Green voters who voted for Jorgensen as well given the Greens were kicked off the ballot and those certainly wouldn't have been otherwise Trump voters.

If you were deadset on voting for Howie Hawkins, you either wrote him in, voted for another candidate like Brian Carroll, went with the the lesser of two evils (Biden) or just didn't vote. Very unlikely a Green voter would see the Libertarians as a viable option given how far-right and anti-environment their economic platform is.

[Hammy]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

I'll add that three of the four states Biden won with less than 50%, there were probably some Green voters who voted for Jorgensen as well given the Greens were kicked off the ballot and those certainly wouldn't have been otherwise Trump voters.

If you were deadset on voting for Howie Hawkins, you either wrote him in, voted for another candidate like Brian Carroll, went with the the lesser of two evils (Biden) or just didn't vote. Very unlikely a Green voter would see the Libertarians as a viable option given how far-right and anti-environment their economic platform is.

You'd be surprised. The number is certainly higher than zero, probably only in the hundreds, but they still exist--and I know a few.

[Kamala Was Right About Everything]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

I'll add that three of the four states Biden won with less than 50%, there were probably some Green voters who voted for Jorgensen as well given the Greens were kicked off the ballot and those certainly wouldn't have been otherwise Trump voters.

If you were deadset on voting for Howie Hawkins, you either wrote him in, voted for another candidate like Brian Carroll, went with the the lesser of two evils (Biden) or just didn't vote. Very unlikely a Green voter would see the Libertarians as a viable option given how far-right and anti-environment their economic platform is.

You'd be surprised. The number is certainly higher than zero, probably only in the hundreds, but they still exist--and I know a few.

Please tell them from me I think they're stupid.

[PSOL]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

I'll add that three of the four states Biden won with less than 50%, there were probably some Green voters who voted for Jorgensen as well given the Greens were kicked off the ballot and those certainly wouldn't have been otherwise Trump voters.

If you were deadset on voting for Howie Hawkins, you either wrote him in, voted for another candidate like Brian Carroll, went with the the lesser of two evils (Biden) or just didn't vote. Very unlikely a Green voter would see the Libertarians as a viable option given how far-right and anti-environment their economic platform is.

uhh, like no Hawkins voters would vote for social conservative Carroll. Maybe a few would vote for Gloria La Riva/PSL but most would not vote at all.

[HisGrace]

Exit polls last time showed Johnson took as many votes from Clinton as from Trump and thus had no spoiler effect. Probably the case this time as well. Libertarians would be more inclined to not vote at all than to vote for Trump.

[mileslunn]

Most Johnson votes in 2016 were Romney votes from 2012 thus Republicans who disliked Trump.  Its true most Johnson voters did go over to Biden, but they are mostly your Never Trump Republicans and in 2016 probably assumed Clinton would win and weren't comfortable going over to Democrats.  After Trump pulled off the upset, this time they switched to Biden.  However, I suspect many Johnson voters split their tickets going Biden but GOP down ballot.

[pbrower2a]

Her vote % was higher than some margin of victory in some states

Jorgenson got 1.18% of the vote nationwide, which is not particularly high for the top Third Party nominee. Others together got 0.73% . so figure that Jorgenson got 60% of the vote for anyone not Biden or Trump.

In ascending order for Biden wins


.................................. EV

STATE  B-R  Oth  .6Oth  to // aft

GA      0.24  1.25  0.75  290 306
AZ      0.31  1.87  1.12  279 290
WI      0.63  1.73  1.04  269 279
PA      1.18  1.42  0.99  249 269
NV      2.39  2.28  1.38  243 249
MI      2.78  1.68  1.02  227 243

You have a very strong point.

If Jorgenson got most of her vote from people who would ordinarily vote for the more conservative (and typically more free-enterprise) because Trump is too much a big-government, authoritarian right-winger (Trump may be a libertine, but he is certainly no libertarian!)  then she may have made the difference in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia She may have been the difference between wins for Biden or Trump. If the Jorgenson vote goes to Trump, then Trump gets at least 269 electoral votes. In a tie in electoral votes, Trump wins based on House delegations.  

[AltWorlder]

No. Most people (outside of the third party or bust types) who vote third party in a given year do so because they despise the person the party they normally support nominated. If you had a two way race, same as 2016, the overwhelming majority of those third party voters would've simply not voted in the first place--people who absolutely did not want to see the nominee win but were not willing to go so far as vote for the other side.

I'll add that three of the four states Biden won with less than 50%, there were probably some Green voters who voted for Jorgensen as well given the Greens were kicked off the ballot and those certainly wouldn't have been otherwise Trump voters.

If you were deadset on voting for Howie Hawkins, you either wrote him in, voted for another candidate like Brian Carroll, went with the the lesser of two evils (Biden) or just didn't vote. Very unlikely a Green voter would see the Libertarians as a viable option given how far-right and anti-environment their economic platform is.

You'd be surprised. The number is certainly higher than zero, probably only in the hundreds, but they still exist--and I know a few.

Please tell them from me I think they're stupid.

In America we call them low-information

[Galeel]

The only time third parties matter is in extremely ultra close situations, like Florida 2000. I doubt Jill Stein spoiled 2016 for Clinton and I doubt Jorgensen spoiled 2020 for Trump since their voters probably wouldn't have backed major party candidates anyway.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I’m a Jorgensen voter; I voted for her as a protest vote and would have voted for some other minor party if she wasn’t on the ballot.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

As a Trump supporter, I wouldn't say so. Most of her Republican support would have gone to Biden had she not been on the ballot. She was just a more palatable choice for them.

Plus I've always been a proponent of protest voting. I've voted for Republicans, Democrats, Greens, Libertarians, and indies over the years. I would never hold it against anyone to vote third party, regardless of their reasons, because I think a stronger third party presence is inherently good for democracy.

Hell, if the Greens somehow become the Tulsi Gabbard Party I'd leave the GOP and join them.

[pbrower2a]

if anything, a spoiler AGAINST Trump.

[Motorcity]

Looking at 2016 results, it appears more of Gary Johnson's vote went for Biden than Trump

LMAO

I remeber Republicans back in 2017-2018 saying that Trump was going to win big in 2020 because the Gary Johnson vote were "Never Republicans" and were going to come home to the GOP

Turns out it was Gary Johnson, not Jill Stein that cost Hillary the White House.

It’s odd that Gary Johnson however is never blamed for this, even though it was Biden’s consolidation from this voter bloc that won him the election.

I do oh wonder why the Left is wholly blamed as a Democratic spoiler? Could it be that it’s a major goal of the Democratic Party to neutralize the success of the Left in general?

I think the Greens were blamed in 2016 because logically the media assumed that Green supports would support the Democrats and the Liberteareans would support Republicans because these are the parties cloest in views

Accept the American elecotrate isnt logically. Almost every Gary Johnson voter I know thought he was a centrist party in between the two parties?

[Dabeav]

The assumption in any of these cases is that enough of the Jorgensen/Hawkings/Kanye/whoever voters would've voted for Trump instead, given a binary choice.  I believe most of the time answer is no; they can vote for another 3rd party or just stay home.