How do you see the next British General Election going? Who wins?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I'd put the chances at 50-50.  Sure there are loads of Tories who think he's rubbish.  There are even many that think he should go.  But there is no clear replacement waiting in the wings.  Gove seems to have had his chance and Patel and Raab are both from the Right so would compete over the same lane.  The more centrist candidate has won every contest since at least Howard and yet there is no obvious centrist waiting.

Rishi Sunak might seem like he checks all the boxes but (for now) he is intensely loyal to Boris and his approvals will fade soon anyway.

Struggling to see how you could argue that Johnson was the most centrist candidate in the 2019 leadership contest.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'd put the chances at 50-50.  Sure there are loads of Tories who think he's rubbish.  There are even many that think he should go.  But there is no clear replacement waiting in the wings.  Gove seems to have had his chance and Patel and Raab are both from the Right so would compete over the same lane.  The more centrist candidate has won every contest since at least Howard and yet there is no obvious centrist waiting.

Rishi Sunak might seem like he checks all the boxes but (for now) he is intensely loyal to Boris and his approvals will fade soon anyway.

Struggling to see how you could argue that Johnson was the most centrist candidate in the 2019 leadership contest.

He did pivot to the center, weirdly announced he'd be in favour of an immigration amnesty and said a bunch of stuff that would normally be toxic in a leadership race.

[Conservatopia]

I'd put the chances at 50-50.  Sure there are loads of Tories who think he's rubbish.  There are even many that think he should go.  But there is no clear replacement waiting in the wings.  Gove seems to have had his chance and Patel and Raab are both from the Right so would compete over the same lane.  The more centrist candidate has won every contest since at least Howard and yet there is no obvious centrist waiting.

Rishi Sunak might seem like he checks all the boxes but (for now) he is intensely loyal to Boris and his approvals will fade soon anyway.

Struggling to see how you could argue that Johnson was the most centrist candidate in the 2019 leadership contest.

Certainly not the most centrist (that would be Stewart) but a centrist nonetheless.

Remember that Raab, McVey, Harper, Leadsom, Javid and maybe even Gove are all from his right and apart from on EU related issues Hunt has been to the right of Boris over the last 10 years.  Heck, I was a swing-voter in the contest between Boris and Hunt despite having rooted for McVey, then Javid, then Raab in the opening MP rounds.  I ended up #BackingBoris because I saw him as the most likely to deliver an election victory.

The idea that Boris is right-wing is almost solely due to his Brexit stance, which is ridiculous because that logic would make Galloway a secret right-winger.

Don't forget as well that Boris snapped up the support of a lot of the One Nation Group MPs which lead to his dominance of the nomination rounds.  In fact the ONG is the base of his support now with most of the Right having fled him.  Right-wing MPs generally supported Boris (Patel, Mogg etc) but there were a few notable ones supporting Hunt such as Mordaunt.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not *just* his pro-Brexit stance tbf (though that is of course pretty fundamental to his perception I agree) but his willingness to indulge culture war tropism *when it suits him*.

His supporters laugh off stuff like "bum boys" and "watermelon smiles" with the claim that "its Boris" and he doesn't "really" believe it. Whereas its the sort of thing many of his detractors will remember.

[Conservatopia]

Its not *just* his pro-Brexit stance tbf (though that is of course pretty fundamental to his perception I agree) but his willingness to indulge culture war tropism *when it suits him*.

His supporters laugh off stuff like "bum boys" and "watermelon smiles" with the claim that "its Boris" and he doesn't "really" believe it. Whereas its the sort of thing many of his detractors will remember.

Maybe, but that makes him no less centrist.  You can be a centrist culture warrior.  Heck, you can be a centrist racist.

What my point is is that Boris is definitely to the left of a large percentage of the parliamentary party and the vast majority of the membership.  He was less rightwing than most of the 2019 candidates.

Your point about indulging in culture warfare *when it suits him* is bang on though.  Everything about Boris is about what suits Boris' current aims.  Whilst he is liberal and Eurosceptic there isn't really a lot more substance to his ideology than that.  I think I've heard before that when he was an MP before becoming Mayor the only issues on which he strayed from the party line were gay rights (for) and the EU (against).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Yeah I think Boris is less ideological than a Raab, not necessarily less right wing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not *just* his pro-Brexit stance tbf (though that is of course pretty fundamental to his perception I agree) but his willingness to indulge culture war tropism *when it suits him*.

His supporters laugh off stuff like "bum boys" and "watermelon smiles" with the claim that "its Boris" and he doesn't "really" believe it. Whereas its the sort of thing many of his detractors will remember.

Maybe, but that makes him no less centrist.  You can be a centrist culture warrior.  Heck, you can be a centrist racist.

You certainly can, but few of those types are actually "out and proud" about it.

[LabourJersey]

I agree w/ a few of the posters about Boris not being the candidate in 2024--I think he'll be weakened by then and probably want out for various reasons (boredom, health, etc).

I think Starmer will gain plenty of seats, and maybe get a majority? Or come close enough to make a Tory government very difficult before falling in a snap election in 2025 or '26.

Obviously there's a bunch of things that could effect this prediction, like the non-zero chance that NI or Scotland are no longer part of the UK in 2024-26 (really slim chances, but not zero)

[CumbrianLefty]

There are quite a few people who will vote for "Boris" but not any other likely Tory leader.

[Alcibiades]

A very feasible scenario is that Labour end up as the largest party, but short of a majority. It will be very interesting to see what plays out from there. The easiest arrangement for all concerned would be some sort of agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems, with the Greens, Plaid and the SDLP potentially providing any additional seats needed to get a majority. But what if those parties’ seats are not enough to get Labour over the line? Will they dare to make a deal with the SNP?

[Blair]

A very feasible scenario is that Labour end up as the largest party, but short of a majority. It will be very interesting to see what plays out from there. The easiest arrangement for all concerned would be some sort of agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems, with the Greens, Plaid and the SDLP potentially providing any additional seats needed to get a majority. But what if those parties’ seats are not enough to get Labour over the line? Will they dare to make a deal with the SNP?

The only 'easy' way for Labour to rely on SNP votes is if there is somehow IndyRef 2 before the next general election & better together MK.2 somehow wins... but for that to happen along with a Labour GE victory would be rather shocking.

Anything else becomes tricky; but I still feel that Labour would trade a referendum for getting into Government.

It's not often talked about but the Lib Dems becoming such a rump has made it much harder for Labour to govern; even if they had 30-40 seats it would give Labour a much easier life to govern.

Its only a hunch but I feel that any Government that relies on more than one large party & several smaller parties is doomed to fall quite quickly in our system

[Conservatopia]

A very feasible scenario is that Labour end up as the largest party, but short of a majority. It will be very interesting to see what plays out from there. The easiest arrangement for all concerned would be some sort of agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems, with the Greens, Plaid and the SDLP potentially providing any additional seats needed to get a majority. But what if those parties’ seats are not enough to get Labour over the line? Will they dare to make a deal with the SNP?

The only 'easy' way for Labour to rely on SNP votes is if there is somehow IndyRef 2 before the next general election & better together MK.2 somehow wins... but for that to happen along with a Labour GE victory would be rather shocking.

Anything else becomes tricky; but I still feel that Labour would trade a referendum for getting into Government.

It's not often talked about but the Lib Dems becoming such a rump has made it much harder for Labour to govern; even if they had 30-40 seats it would give Labour a much easier life to govern.

Its only a hunch but I feel that any Government that relies on more than one large party & several smaller parties is doomed to fall quite quickly in our system

Last sentence is definitely right.  Arguably the only time it ever happened was Callaghan.  And we all know how that ended.

I don't think there is much chance of a Labour majority.  However as many previous posters have pointed out: they simply don't need one while the Tories (or the wider Unionists) have to have a majority to govern.  I cannot see the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Tories again.  Polling during the pandemic has consistently had the attitudes of voters for Labour and the Tories closer to one another than LD voters and Tory voters.  If the Yankee-influenced culture war continues to invade the political landscape then LD and Tories will be driven even further apart as LD voters are a lot more 'woke' than Labourites.

On the culture war note has anybody paid any attention to Nandy?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Anything else becomes tricky; but I still feel that Labour would trade a referendum for getting into Government.

Don't think so. Considering the ramifications of a Yes victory it would be a hell of a gamble to make. Plus they would almost certainly have to rule one out during the campaign or be hit hard on it by the Conservatives and the media, as Corbyn was in 2019.

From the SNP side, if offered a generous new devolution settlement by Labour then I don't see holding out for a referendum as credible. The alternative would be the Tories getting back in and no indyref2 anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

On the culture war note has anybody paid any attention to Nandy?

She's always been like that. Likeable and talented, but also erratic and unreliable.