Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[mileslunn]

One that may happen if leadership held this year is Vancouver-Quilchena.  If next BC Liberal member is not a member of caucus, pretty sure Wilkinson steps aside and next leader runs in his riding as a fairly safe BC Liberal riding and party probably wants to move away from Wilkinson.  He might resign anyways.

Alberta would be interesting as UCP has really tanked in polls and if NDP were to flip a supposedly safe UCP seat that might lead to major changes and possibly even some in party trying to push Kenney in.  Most UCP types loathe NDP and mere thought of them winning in 2023 will push them to dump leader.

[mileslunn]

Athabasca is interesting as in recent years very safe NDP riding.  Some are suggesting Moe dropping all restrictions big reason but not sure about that.  Doing so probably helped with millennials who are most tired of them, but with this riding being largely First Nations, not sure huge call for this.  I think more it came down to local candidate as in Northern Saskatchewan a lot vote more for candidate as opposed to party.  Main reason for NDP dominance is not just First Nations usually vote NDP but also Saskatchewan Party has never really recruited until now a popular candidate amongst First Nations.  The MLA elect in fact I believe was not too long ago an NDP supporter.

Fort McMurray-Lac Le Biche should be interesting.  Most likely stays UCP as not a swing riding but fairly safe one and besides with Brian Jean running to get Kenney's job so you can safely vote for them if you dislike Kenney but cannot vote NDP.  NDP winning would be a huge shock and probably sign they are on track for a much bigger majority than most think.  If UCP loses this, that means probably looking at less than 20 seats.  Still I think if NDP cracks 30%, that is a good sign for them provincially.  WIP unlikely to win but if they get in mid 20s, could be warning that risk of split on right bigger.  Expect Kenney to go really right in next year or next UCP leader to shore this up. 

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised that Georgina Jolibois wasn't available to win this - she seemed one of the best NDP MPs. But given it looks like the CPC notionally won this seat at the last two elections, perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised.

It seems First Nations turnout really bad.  Big reason Tories won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River and Kenora and neither was even close.  On paper shouldn't be Tory with large First Nation's population and Tories usually get in single digits amongst First Nations.  But seems for whatever reason many don't show up, while due to re-alignment Tories now dominate white voters in both unlike in past thus why win it as they show up.

[mileslunn]

When will Legault likely call the Marie-Victorin by-election?

That will be interesting.  Would have gone CAQ earlier and probably will.  Although PCQ at 15% and while won't win this seat, they could split vote enough CAQ falls short.  Probably why Legault is accelerating re-opening to push them down.  Only benefit CAQ has is PQ and PLQ are at rock bottom while QS doing okay but they are largely confined to areas with lots of young progressives and this riding is more middle class suburban families.

[mileslunn]

Fort McMurray-Lac Le Biche this week and should be interesting.  While UCP heavy favourites to hold it despite bad poll numbers, if they lose it probably means Danielle Smith becomes next premier until at least next year when I think Notley favoured to beat her.  Brian Jean losing this out as leadership contender and Kenney almost certainly loses leadership review if loses this safe seat.

Still be interesting to see how well NDP does.  Only way they win is if a near perfect split on right.  Its not like urban ridings they can win on own right as in this riding far more lean right than left.  WIPA unlikely to win but if they get over 20% could be a sign as a real threat to UCP and expect UCP to move even further right to shore up this vote.  If get in single digits but UCP struggles, could be sign province doesn't want to move right and wants to move closer to centre.  But I doubt UCP with number of ideologues it has will do this.  It seems a lot in base unwilling to moderate no matter how overwhelming evidence is. 

While no polls yet to see if surplus in budget and re-opening is helping UCP, but I doubt UCP has regained lead.  Boris Johnson is still trailing in UK and while different country, his strong stance on Russia you would think would help and it has tightened things but not enough to pull ahead.  And even worst polls for him are not as bad as most for Kenney are.

[mileslunn]

I suspect the UCP will easily win the byelection in Fort-MacMurray because if there is one place in Alberta where the NDP can never wins its Fort Mac and secondly the UCP candidate is Brian jean who is openly running as an anti-Kenney candidate pledging to dump him as leader and to run for the leadership himself - so if you live in that riding by voting UCP in the byelection you get the best of both worlds - you get to register dissent against Kenney AND you can also reject the NDP.

Fort McMurray is very conservative and NDP dead there.  NDP support only somewhat decent in 2015 in riding although still lost as large First Nations' population.  Although my understanding is a lot of First Nations work in energy sector so probably don't vote NDP in same numbers they do in other parts of country.

[mileslunn]

Easy win for Jean.  While still 11 polls to go, looks like UCP will get over 60% so not too far off 2019 results and NDP at best cracks 20% probably below so no sign of NDP surge polls showing here.  WIPA though double digits which is perhaps one worry for UCP.

So my thoughts are:

UCP:  After a lot of nasty poll numbers, somewhat good news, but not totally.  I suspect if UCP candidate wasn't Brian Jean, it wouldn't have been as big a landslide so shows he is popular where well known and if smart should chose him as next leader.  Whether he is right person to lead or not, don't know but have trouble imagining him doing worse than Kenney.  Also for Kenney this is not good news as he know has Jean in caucus to organize against him and Jean has made clear he wants Kenney's job.

NDP:  While they were never realistically going to win this riding, size of loss is a disaster.  If on track to win provincially, they should be around 30% here.  That doesn't mean polls are wrong or will lose next year, I still think they win.  Just means they need to not lot good poll #'s get to their head and realize they need to work hard for every vote if they want to win.

WIPA: That might be one worry for UCP.  In one hand at 12%, that is about same PPC got federally in riding of Fort McMurray-Athabasca.  On other hand if it holds that could cost them.  Not in rural areas where NDP is too weak to win, but in Calgary which is essential for UCP, they need every vote they can get and even WIPA just getting a mere 5% in Calgary could cost them a whole bunch of seats and possible election.

[mileslunn]

Seems we have contradictory polls. 

Research and Co.

NDP 45%
UCP 30%

while Janet Brown

UCP 40%
NDP 36%

With Janet Brown having best record for last election, may be right, but its Lorne Gunter giving out numbers in Sun Media with no tables so very skeptical UCP is ahead.

While lots can happen and I have taken the view Notley is heavily favoured to win next year no matter who UCP leader is and that healthy surplus and economy taking off and new leader won't save UCP.  A lot disagree as idea of NDP beating a united right seems inconceivable, but I don't think Alberta is that right wing to begin with and Notley is more moderate and understands Alberta better than say Singh so she has much wider appeal than federal NDP ever would.

I think by-election, makes chance of Brian Jean being next leader and next premier go up. But I don't think UCP big win says much.  Probably only indicates NDP needs to go big on Calgary as not a lot of winnable rural ones, but Jean unlike Kenney seems to have limited urban appeal while should lock up rural unlike Kenney.

[mileslunn]

I realy don't understand why Albertan Progressive are celebrating Brian Jean's victory if he does replace Kenny he'll be even more right-wing and more likely to win the next election.

Both fairly right wing but yeah if a progressive not great.  That being said I think reason Kenney is unpopular is not just COVID and personality although those make it worse, but also values and policies of UCP.  While median Alberta voter is maybe a bit to right of Notley, I do think NDP is more in line with Alberta today than UCP is.  Alberta is not nearly as conservative as stereotype.  Federal dominance there is more over regionalism than ideology so there are lots of people in Alberta who vote Conservative federally but NDP provincially. 

[mileslunn]

Yeah. I think the WIP result here was pretty neutral to be honest. It confirms what polls have been showing in terms of them being the best-positioned hard-right alternative to the UCP by far, but at the same time it also indicates that they still have their work cut out for them if they want to be able to win seats. There's also the very relevant Brian Jean factor to consider in this race - I would have been very curious to see how the WIP (and NDP for that matter) would have performed in a rural by-election almost anywhere else in the province.

Plus, there's surely some kind of serial-parachute-candidate jadedness w/regard to Paul Hinman--if it were a high-profile *local* WIP candidate elsewhere in the province, things might be different...

I think WIP gained largely over covid restrictions so as those go, their support probably falls.  Alberta unlike BC was most polarized on covid restrictions with much on right flank wanting no restrictions at all while more centrist and left of centre feeling they were too loose.  A lot in latter also probably felt if Kenney brought in more modest restrictions sooner and hadn't waited until it got out of control, they wouldn't have needed as harsh a restrictions as they did.

BC is opposite is least divided on covid restrictions.  I think big part though was BC was unique in the premier having almost no say on them and leaving to Dr. Bonnie Henry.  Problem is hard right elements hate all establishment so not sure that would work in Alberta.

Some also want Kenney to fight more with Trudeau, but also not sure it would make a difference.  Fact Trudeau has higher approval ratings in Alberta than Kenney (although both are bad) probably limits what he can do.

[mileslunn]

NDP won't win it, but still a tossup between PCs and Liberals.  Considering this is probably safest PC seat in Winnipeg bad news if they lose this or come close.

[mileslunn]

Definitely bad sign for PCs.  Only saving grace is it was Liberals who came in second and NDP didn't do well, but NDP winning was always a long shot here and probably many voted strategically.  I do think though if NDP wins in 2023, it will be by nearly sweeping Winnipeg and winning Northern ridings, but the central rural ones which they won in 2011 I don't see swinging back.  But at same time I could see some traditional PC ones in Winnipeg going NDP if they win.

While polls at this point don't mean a lot, NDP vote is more efficient as PCs tend to pile up margins in the border regions so NDP could lose popular vote by 2-3 points and still end up with more seats.

[mileslunn]

Horgan has called by-election for Vancouver-Quilchena and Kevin Falcon will be BC Liberal candidate.  Since this is a fairly wealthy and usually very safe BC Liberal riding, I expect they will hold this although results will be interesting to see can Falcon get party back into 60s like did in past or will it be stuck in 50s.  Likewise if NDP can get over 25% good showing, over 30% great showing.  Its the one Vancouver seat which is probably out of reach (Vancouver-Langara is winnable but not Vancouver-Quilchena).  Of areas that go federal Liberal, Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano probably two NDP cannot win as too much old money.

[mileslunn]

Stephanie Cadieux resigning so a by-election sometime later this year there as well.  Surrey South normally a solid BC Liberal riding, but NDP had a strong second place showing last time around.  BC Liberals probably have edge, but an NDP win is not inconceivable, especially if Greens do poorly while BC Conservatives run a candidate who can get 7-10% thus splitting it enough. 

Surprised though she didn't announce earlier as Kevin Falcon is from Surrey so this riding makes more sense than Vancouver-Quilchena.  On other hand, if he lost there, would be a huge embarrassment whereas almost no chance he loses Vancouver-Quilchena.

[mileslunn]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

I also think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for riding.  Its more your Blue Liberal/Red Tory type.  Like balanced budgets, wary of big spending, prefer lower taxes although not too low, but totally turned off by populism and culture wars.  Riding is very similar to your Tory Remain types in UK and your Romney-Biden counties.

[mileslunn]

Surrey South has normally been a very safe BC Liberal riding and was only close in 2020 which was probably a high water mark for NDP and low point for BC Liberals.  So some reversion to mean no surprise.  BC Conservatives getting 12% is mixed blessing for both parties.  For NDP, that is strong enough could split the vote enough they could come up middle.  Usually they are weaker in Lower Mainland than Fraser Valley or Interior.  On other hand fact BC Liberals still won handily anyways may play to idea vote splitting is overrated and its not as simple as right vs. left as some think.

[mileslunn]

Results (prelim, excluding mail-ins):

NDP: 56.8% (+5.5)
SP: 37.0% (-9.1)
Lib: 2.6%
Buf: 2.4%
Grn: 1.2% (-1.4)

Turnout: 37.5% (-18.8)

NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +7.3%)
 

Applying that 2-party swing to the 2020 riding-by-riding results, you flip 6 seats from SKP to NDP - one in Prince Albert, two in Saskatoon, three in Regina. Still a huge Sask Party majority, 42-19 - but amazingly, that would still be the NDP's biggest seat haul since 2007

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

[mileslunn]

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..

I kind of think if NDP wins in next decade, it will come from split on right as when in power for a long time, splits on right seem more common.  Its easy to unite when a common enemy.  When the threat of them winning becomes a distant memory, much easier to split and no doubt in Saskatchewan you have divide with most urban Saskatchewan party members being more moderate fiscally conservative but socially moderate types while rural membership much more likely to be your right wing populist types.  You see it in UCP and while not yet in Saskatchewan Party, I imagine its only a matter of time before you do.

[mileslunn]

Brooks-Medicine Hat will be having a by-election on November 8th where Danielle Smith attempts to gain a seat in legislature.  In all likelihood should be easy UCP win but be interesting how it plays out as Smith while popular with base is quite controversial overall.  Interestingly enough Calgary-Elbow is not being called suggesting Smith doesn't like UCP chances there.

[mileslunn]

Does this mean that her campaign for the nomination in Livingstone-Macleod is off?

MLA there not interested in stepping down.  Livingstone-Macleod probably even safer as Medicine Hat did go NDP in 2015 although city was split in two so redistributed one would have gone Wildrose.

[mileslunn]

Calgary-Heritage should be easy Tory win, but be interested to see if any UCP MLAs with the mess party is in jump ship or if held after provincial election may have one that loses their seat.

[mileslunn]

Looking at upcoming ones I have

Brooks-Medicine Hat: Probably goes for Danielle Smith as a fairly reliably Conservative one but with Alberta party leader being former mayor of Brooks and NDP having some support in Medicine Hat, its possible Smith gets under 50% and if that happens huge redflag for her.  I could only see her losing if one of two dropped out and even then simply makes more competitive.

Calgary-Heritage: Very safe Tory riding so easy Conservative win.  Be interesting if one of the UCP MLAs in Calgary unhappy with direction jumps into the federal fray.

Mississauga South: That will be first test if Poilievre is making inroads in suburbs or not.  On one hand by-elections tend to have low turnout and those in opposition more motivated to show up thus Tory edge.  But also this is type that might prefer more your Charest style of conservatism and may find Poilievre a bridge too far.

Hamilton Centre (provincial): Easy NDP win.  Yes Howarth popular here, but this is by nature an NDP stronghold.  Very strong blue collar population, but also urban central enough it is not seeing loss to right you are in some other blue collar ridings.

[mileslunn]

I think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for Mississauga-Lakeshore but key indicators in some ways.

Trudeau:  This is more a Blue Liberal type riding so probably a lot wish Trudeau was more fiscally conservative so reluctantly vote Liberal.  If wins shows still in game but if loses depends on turnout and size of loss.

Poilievre: High number of university educated and upper middle class types so may like balanced budgets and lower taxes, but could care less about right wing populism so more a riding Charest would do well in.  If Poilievre wishes to win, he pretty much needs to win this.  If loses this in general election, at best wins a weak minority.

Still as mentioned I think Tories have slight edge simply as their supporters more motivated to show up, but wouldn't be surprised if Liberals hold riding.

[mileslunn]

Wonder if we'll get a candidate who wins 0 votes? Also, this could result in Turmel's lowest PV share, maybe ever? (This coming off his Brantford mayoral run, where he had his best result in 25 years and 60 elections)

I suspect a lot of Turmel's votes are just people who think all other options lousy.  I once voted for him in a by-election as didn't like any of the mainstream parties and I suspect most who voted for him in that group.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/jkenney/status/1597741099971641344

Likely won't call one as risk NDP could win this and that would be super embarrassing.  Not saying will go NDP in general election, but in by-election which are notorious for low turnout might as some old PC types who cannot stomach voting NDP in general election might in by-election just to send a message to Smith.