Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[mileslunn]

Yeah. I think the WIP result here was pretty neutral to be honest. It confirms what polls have been showing in terms of them being the best-positioned hard-right alternative to the UCP by far, but at the same time it also indicates that they still have their work cut out for them if they want to be able to win seats. There's also the very relevant Brian Jean factor to consider in this race - I would have been very curious to see how the WIP (and NDP for that matter) would have performed in a rural by-election almost anywhere else in the province.

Plus, there's surely some kind of serial-parachute-candidate jadedness w/regard to Paul Hinman--if it were a high-profile *local* WIP candidate elsewhere in the province, things might be different...

I think WIP gained largely over covid restrictions so as those go, their support probably falls.  Alberta unlike BC was most polarized on covid restrictions with much on right flank wanting no restrictions at all while more centrist and left of centre feeling they were too loose.  A lot in latter also probably felt if Kenney brought in more modest restrictions sooner and hadn't waited until it got out of control, they wouldn't have needed as harsh a restrictions as they did.

BC is opposite is least divided on covid restrictions.  I think big part though was BC was unique in the premier having almost no say on them and leaving to Dr. Bonnie Henry.  Problem is hard right elements hate all establishment so not sure that would work in Alberta.

Some also want Kenney to fight more with Trudeau, but also not sure it would make a difference.  Fact Trudeau has higher approval ratings in Alberta than Kenney (although both are bad) probably limits what he can do.

[Benjamin Frank]

Fort Whyte Manitoba byelection is today.

[trebor204]

Two former Winnipeg Blue Bombers are in the race:  Obby Khan (for the PC's) and Willard Reaves (for the Liberal's). In addition Trudy Schroeder (former Winnipeg Symphony Orchestra director), Nicolas Geddert for the Green's and Patrick Allard (Independent) .

The riding is one of the safest PCs riding in Winnipeg, was held by former Premier Brian Pallister.

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll
NDP 18
P.C 9
Liberal 7

NDP landslide!

[MaxQue]

Result page:
https://enr.emapplications.ca/

At the moment with 2 boxes out of 56, the NDP leads with 24 votes, 23 votes for PC and 18 votes for Liberals.

[MaxQue]

At 11/56, it's PC 202, Liberal 200 and NDP 183.

[MaxQue]

At 22/56, it's Liberal 537, PC 518, NDP 302.
I think it's safe to say the NDP won't win, but it's still quite tight.

[MaxQue]

The Manitoba rule for recounts is not percentage-based, but a simple 50 votes rule (and I don't think any party managed to get a lead for 50 votes so far tonight).

There is also a by-election pending in Thompson following the death of MBNDP Danielle Adams in a car crash back in December. The Liberals already announced they won't be running a candidate.

[mileslunn]

NDP won't win it, but still a tossup between PCs and Liberals.  Considering this is probably safest PC seat in Winnipeg bad news if they lose this or come close.

[Continential]

The Manitoba rule for recounts is not percentage-based, but a simple 50 votes rule (and I don't think any party managed to get a lead for 50 votes so far tonight).

The PCs currently have a 28 vote lead so it will be pretty close.

[MaxQue]

At 47/56, it's PC 1587 votes, Liberals 1573 votes.

[DL]

Fort Whyte is the richest riding in Manitoba. It’s the equivalent of very rich bedrock Tory seats in the southeast of England that might vote Lib Dem as a protest against the Tories but would never vote Labour

[Tintrlvr]

This is a real nailbiter: results are now PC 1646, LIB 1643 at 49/56 polls reporting

[Tintrlvr]

Fort Whyte is the richest riding in Manitoba. It’s the equivalent of very rich bedrock Tory seats in the southeast of England that might vote Lib Dem as a protest against the Tories but would never vote Labour

Is it? I would have guessed River Heights for the wealthiest. In any event, things don't break down quite so well in Canada, given that unlike in the UK, in Canada the wealthiest ridings nationally are mostly Liberal, although the wealthiest polls tend to vote Conservative and of course very wealthy places essentially never vote NDP.

[trebor204]

2,335 Advance votes were cast and 300 mail-in ballots.

Based on current vote totals: I don't think the advance votes have been counted yet.

[DL]

Fort Whyte is the richest riding in Manitoba. It’s the equivalent of very rich bedrock Tory seats in the southeast of England that might vote Lib Dem as a protest against the Tories but would never vote Labour

Is it? I would have guessed River Heights for the wealthiest. In any event, things don't break down quite so well in Canada, given that unlike in the UK, in Canada the wealthiest ridings nationally are mostly Liberal, although the wealthiest polls tend to vote Conservative and of course very wealthy places essentially never vote NDP.

Not entirely true. I live in a very wealthy part of downtown Toronto where everyone makes a six digit income and my polling subdivision went 65% NDP in the last Ontario election

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Fort Whyte is the richest riding in Manitoba. It’s the equivalent of very rich bedrock Tory seats in the southeast of England that might vote Lib Dem as a protest against the Tories but would never vote Labour

Isn't it heavily visible minority as well ?

[DL]

According to Wikipedia it is not particularly heavy in visible minorities. According to friends in Winnipeg it’s where nouveau riche WASPs go to buy monster homes and McMansions

[Benjamin Frank]

The vote count has gone down and it doesn't match the number of counted votes, there are clearly problems with counting of the outstanding polls.

[trebor204]

It was 1,953 to 1,921 for the PCs then went down to1,807 to 1,797 for the PCs now the Liberals are up 1,937 to 1,905
In all 3 cases total polls were 54 out of 56

[MaxQue]

And now it's 55/56 and PC 2565, Liberals 2440.

[trebor204]

And now it's 55/56 and PC 2565, Liberals 2440.

A gain of the 1500 votes. Must be 1 of 2 advance polls.
Last provincial election had 2 advance polls in Fort Whyte one with 1,316 votes cast and one with 1,020  votes cast.
2,355 advance votes were cast this election.

[trebor204]

Finals Results


PC - 3027
LIB 2830
NDP 1092
IND 98
Green 55

[DL]

The PCs eek out a 195 vote win in what is usually one of their safest seats. Very bad sign for them. That seat is way too rich for the NDP to ever be competitive but I suspect the NDP is pleased the Liberals did not win since the last thing they need is for the moribund Manitoba Liberals to get any oxygen

[mileslunn]

Definitely bad sign for PCs.  Only saving grace is it was Liberals who came in second and NDP didn't do well, but NDP winning was always a long shot here and probably many voted strategically.  I do think though if NDP wins in 2023, it will be by nearly sweeping Winnipeg and winning Northern ridings, but the central rural ones which they won in 2011 I don't see swinging back.  But at same time I could see some traditional PC ones in Winnipeg going NDP if they win.

While polls at this point don't mean a lot, NDP vote is more efficient as PCs tend to pile up margins in the border regions so NDP could lose popular vote by 2-3 points and still end up with more seats.