Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[DL]

Also the Fort MacMurray byelection would be VERY different if the UCP nomination had gone to a Kenney loyalist and Jean was running for the Wildrose Independence Party or if he was covertly telling people to vote “anything but UCP” to send a message to Kenny

[adma]

I sorta agree with Josée Legault that M-V won't be that important for the PQ. Either they're comatose like Joe Clark's PCs or die completely like the UN, and I don't think another leader would do much better than PSPP.

Its interesting to look at formerly powerful parties in Canada that have died. The classic example is the Union Nationale which went from being the government of Quebec in 1970 to losing all seats in 1973 and after a dead cat bounce in 1976 - basically ceased to exist.

Other major parties that have died would include:

Alberta Social Credit (Government 1936 to 1971, sputtered with a handful of seats in the 70s and then vanished)
BC Social Credit (Government 1952-72 and again 1975-1991 - then got annhilated and subsumed into the current BC Liberal Party)
The provincial Liberal parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were all going concerns as recently as the 1990s and 00s - and are all now basically dead.

The Manitoba Liberals aren't quite dead, they still have seats at least.

Manitoba's a curious off-and-on case--the Libs *were* basically dead there (i.e. seatless) going into the 80s, but then made a stomping comeback under Sharon Carstairs in '88, and henceforth faded yet always w/a River Heights toehold as a "just in case" electoral reserve fund.  So they're "alive enough", under the circumstance--more like the BC Libs during the Wacky Bennett years than during the Bill Bennett years...

[DL]

There is a Manitoba byelection next week in Brian Pallister's old seat of Fort Whyte which as an extremely wealthy Winnipeg suburb that is usually considered the safest PC seat in Winnipeg. Apparently things are not going so well for the PCs and they may have a close race - possibly more with the normally dead Manitoba Liberals than with the NDP. This is one of those extremely rich ridings (see River Heights) where people will cast a protest vote for the Liberals but could never "slum it" with the NDP which represents those icky working people.

[Njall]

Results are coming in in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election:

14/63 Polls Reporting:

Brian Jean (United Conservative): 552 (66.0%)
Ariana Mancini (New Democratic): 150 (17.9%)
Paul Hinman (Wildrose Independence): 91 (10.9%)
Abdulhakim Hussein (Liberal): 20 (2.4%)
Michelle Landsiedel (Alberta Party): 13 (1.6%)
Brian Deheer (Independent): 6 (0.7%)
Steven Mellott (Independence Party): 4 (0.5%)
Marilyn Burns (Advantage Party): 0

[Njall]

29/63 Polls Reporting:

Brian Jean (United Conservative): 1290 (66.7%)
Ariana Mancini (New Democratic): 318 (16.4%)
Paul Hinman (Wildrose Independence): 239 (12.4%)
Abdulhakim Hussein (Liberal): 31 (1.6%)
Michelle Landsiedel (Alberta Party): 26 (1.3%)
Brian Deheer (Independent): 21 (1.1%)
Steven Mellott (Independence Party): 6 (0.3%)
Marilyn Burns (Advantage Party): 2 (0.2%)

[Njall]

With only a handful of polls outstanding (plus the advance polls), things have barely shifted at all. Easy win for Brian Jean. The NDP candidate underperformed by a decent amount though - I had been expecting the NDP to get at least 25% but right now they're not even at 17%.

[Oryxslayer]

With only a handful of polls outstanding (plus the advance polls), things have barely shifted at all. Easy win for Brian Jean. The NDP candidate underperformed by a decent amount though - I had been expecting the NDP to get at least 25% but right now they're not even at 17%.

Probably a combination of two things:

1) Concentration of the swing to the NDP from the UCP in the urban metro seats. When election comes this probably means a easy seat majority with comparatively large vote majorities, but now it means far more limited vote gains in the outlying and extraction areas.

2) Jean running as a open opponent of Kenney so the Conservative's angry with the current direction of the UCP saw no problem with continuing to park their vote with the party.

[mileslunn]

Easy win for Jean.  While still 11 polls to go, looks like UCP will get over 60% so not too far off 2019 results and NDP at best cracks 20% probably below so no sign of NDP surge polls showing here.  WIPA though double digits which is perhaps one worry for UCP.

So my thoughts are:

UCP:  After a lot of nasty poll numbers, somewhat good news, but not totally.  I suspect if UCP candidate wasn't Brian Jean, it wouldn't have been as big a landslide so shows he is popular where well known and if smart should chose him as next leader.  Whether he is right person to lead or not, don't know but have trouble imagining him doing worse than Kenney.  Also for Kenney this is not good news as he know has Jean in caucus to organize against him and Jean has made clear he wants Kenney's job.

NDP:  While they were never realistically going to win this riding, size of loss is a disaster.  If on track to win provincially, they should be around 30% here.  That doesn't mean polls are wrong or will lose next year, I still think they win.  Just means they need to not lot good poll #'s get to their head and realize they need to work hard for every vote if they want to win.

WIPA: That might be one worry for UCP.  In one hand at 12%, that is about same PPC got federally in riding of Fort McMurray-Athabasca.  On other hand if it holds that could cost them.  Not in rural areas where NDP is too weak to win, but in Calgary which is essential for UCP, they need every vote they can get and even WIPA just getting a mere 5% in Calgary could cost them a whole bunch of seats and possible election.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/PaulMitchell_AB/status/1503971714929025029?t=Z9E1_Tz8Jo51EZ-...

Final results.

[Continential]

I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the Alberta Party.

[beesley]

Only a negligible difference in the grand scheme of thing, but my guess is a small band of straight ticket Liberals (excuse the American terminology) which prove to be greater in number than supporters of the Alberta Party itself, rather than the two leaders its had. And unlike last election none of the parties really functioned as an establishment option or perpetuated the dissatisfaction that surrounded itself with Notley at that time.

[Njall]

Only a negligible difference in the grand scheme of thing, but my guess is a small band of straight ticket Liberals (excuse the American terminology) which prove to be greater in number than supporters of the Alberta Party itself, rather than the two leaders its had. And unlike last election none of the parties really functioned as an establishment option or perpetuated the dissatisfaction that surrounded itself with Notley at that time.

What was particularly weird about the Liberal candidate's vote count was that the entirety of his lead over the Alberta Party candidate came from the Fort McMurray advance polls. Despite getting less than 2% on election day, he got 11% in the Fort McMurray advance polls, placing ahead of Paul Hinman by a decent margin. Unless that's due to a data entry error, I would have to assume that that was the result of the Liberal candidate being well-connected to a closely-knit ethnocultural community whose impact is much more noticeable in a low-turnout by-election.

If you subtract the Fort McMurray advance polls, the two parties are basically tied: 78 votes for the ABP, 71 votes for the Liberal.


In terms of other interesting observations, there was a swing (compared to 2019) towards the UCP in Fort McMurray but towards the NDP in Lac La Biche. This despite Fort McMurray being a much bigger urban centre. If I had to guess, I would assume that that trend was due to Brian Jean's specific popularity and recognition in Fort McMurray (not to mention that his old provincial riding from 2015-2018 didn't extend down to Lac La Biche).

Jean also performed very well in the polls covering First Nations reserves and Metis Settlements. The NDP basically always wins the former, and usually overperforms in the latter if they don't win outright. This time though, Jean won all of those polls, albeit on pretty low turnouts. On the Goodfish Lake Reserve, for example, Jean got 75% of the vote, despite the 2019 UCP candidate having only gotten 11% there (the NDP won it with 75% in 2019). And Jean got more raw votes from the Buffalo Lake Metis Settlement in this low-turnout by-election than the 2019 UCP candidate got in the general election.

[Ontarois]

I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the Alberta Party.

Edited by me: "I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the dormant/dead Alberta Party."

I honestly had to look up the name of the current Alberta Party leader.  I remembered that Stephen Mandel stepped down, but had no recollection of the current leader's name.  When some Canadian who posts in this forum can't remember a party leader's name, that is a pretty reliable indication that that leader is unknown (i.e. people who post here have above-average knowledge of Canadian politics).

I purposely left off the Alberta Party leader's name here.  If anyone could remember it without looking it up, let us now.  (Just type "I can" -- please don't post the name in reply here, to spoil the memory test for others...)

[Continential]

I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the Alberta Party.

Edited by me: "I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the dormant/dead Alberta Party."

I honestly had to look up the name of the current Alberta Party leader.  I remembered that Stephen Mandel stepped down, but had no recollection of the current leader's name.  When some Canadian who posts in this forum can't remember a party leader's name, that is a pretty reliable indication that that leader is unknown (i.e. people who post here have above-average knowledge of Canadian politics).

Well the Alberta Party is polling in the high single digits and since I checked the next Alberta general election wiki page earlier today I remember his first name but I have forgotten his last name.

[Njall]

I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the Alberta Party.

Edited by me: "I find it funny how the dormant/dead Alberta Liberals got more than the dormant/dead Alberta Party."

I honestly had to look up the name of the current Alberta Party leader.  I remembered that Stephen Mandel stepped down, but had no recollection of the current leader's name.  When some Canadian who posts in this forum can't remember a party leader's name, that is a pretty reliable indication that that leader is unknown (i.e. people who post here have above-average knowledge of Canadian politics).

I purposely left off the Alberta Party leader's name here.  If anyone could remember it without looking it up, let us now.  (Just type "I can" -- please don't post the name in reply here, to spoil the memory test for others...)

Fwiw, I think he has more local-level name recognition than national-level, given his prior elected experience. He was President of the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association for the last four years so he was in the media relatively often, and he has ties to lots of local elected officials across the province.

On that note, I can remember his name lol. But I'm a very politically-engaged Albertan with numerous former PC and Liberal friends who are active in the ABP.

[Continential]

Njall, how active is the Alberta Liberal Party or is it dead like I think it is?

[Njall]

Njall, how active is the Alberta Liberal Party or is it dead like I think it is?

It's very near-dead. Really the only things keeping it going at all are its name (which tends to give it 1-3% of the vote by default from voters who either think it's the LPC, or see it as a slightly more credible protest vote) and the fact that its long history means that it still has a certain amount of wealthy and/or committed party stalwarts, like former Senator Daniel Hays, who continue to fund it. Because of those donors, it's still reliably able to bring in around $100K-$125K per year.

Aside from that, their metrics are dismal. In 2019, their leader (David Khan) was their best-performing candidate, and he didn't even hit 6% of the vote despite running in the riding being vacated by the one remaining Liberal MLA. Only three candidates, including Khan, got over 3% of the vote, and they only ran candidates in 51 of the 87 ridings. Khan resigned as leader just over a year ago, and they have yet to announce a leadership contest. And based on their latest available financial statements from 2020, they took in $1,080 in membership fees, which at $10/person would indicate that they only had 108 members that year. In my experience, many of the folks who remain active in the ALP are the absolute strongest LPC partisans, in other words the handful of LPC supporters who are so committed to the Liberal brand that they can't imagine supporting any other party like the NDP or Alberta Party provincially.

[mileslunn]

Seems we have contradictory polls. 

Research and Co.

NDP 45%
UCP 30%

while Janet Brown

UCP 40%
NDP 36%

With Janet Brown having best record for last election, may be right, but its Lorne Gunter giving out numbers in Sun Media with no tables so very skeptical UCP is ahead.

While lots can happen and I have taken the view Notley is heavily favoured to win next year no matter who UCP leader is and that healthy surplus and economy taking off and new leader won't save UCP.  A lot disagree as idea of NDP beating a united right seems inconceivable, but I don't think Alberta is that right wing to begin with and Notley is more moderate and understands Alberta better than say Singh so she has much wider appeal than federal NDP ever would.

I think by-election, makes chance of Brian Jean being next leader and next premier go up. But I don't think UCP big win says much.  Probably only indicates NDP needs to go big on Calgary as not a lot of winnable rural ones, but Jean unlike Kenney seems to have limited urban appeal while should lock up rural unlike Kenney.

[Continential]

Njall, how active is the Alberta Liberal Party or is it dead like I think it is?

Also, is the by-election result a good result for the Wildrose Independence Party or is it a bad one since their leader ran in it? 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Njall, how active is the Alberta Liberal Party or is it dead like I think it is?

Also, is the by-election result a good result for the Wildrose Independence Party or is it a bad one since their leader ran in it?  

I have to imagine that the Brian Jean factor hurt the WIP. If I were a right-winger who wants to see Kenney out but wouldn't vote NDP, electing Brian Jean seems like a much better way to do that than voting for a fringe party.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I sorta agree with Josée Legault that M-V won't be that important for the PQ. Either they're comatose like Joe Clark's PCs or die completely like the UN, and I don't think another leader would do much better than PSPP.

Its interesting to look at formerly powerful parties in Canada that have died. The classic example is the Union Nationale which went from being the government of Quebec in 1970 to losing all seats in 1973 and after a dead cat bounce in 1976 - basically ceased to exist.

Other major parties that have died would include:

Alberta Social Credit (Government 1936 to 1971, sputtered with a handful of seats in the 70s and then vanished)
BC Social Credit (Government 1952-72 and again 1975-1991 - then got annhilated and subsumed into the current BC Liberal Party)
The provincial Liberal parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were all going concerns as recently as the 1990s and 00s - and are all now basically dead.

Saskatchewan Progressive Conservatives as well

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I realy don't understand why Albertan Progressive are celebrating Brian Jean's victory if he does replace Kenny he'll be even more right-wing and more likely to win the next election.

[mileslunn]

I realy don't understand why Albertan Progressive are celebrating Brian Jean's victory if he does replace Kenny he'll be even more right-wing and more likely to win the next election.

Both fairly right wing but yeah if a progressive not great.  That being said I think reason Kenney is unpopular is not just COVID and personality although those make it worse, but also values and policies of UCP.  While median Alberta voter is maybe a bit to right of Notley, I do think NDP is more in line with Alberta today than UCP is.  Alberta is not nearly as conservative as stereotype.  Federal dominance there is more over regionalism than ideology so there are lots of people in Alberta who vote Conservative federally but NDP provincially. 

[Njall]

Njall, how active is the Alberta Liberal Party or is it dead like I think it is?

Also, is the by-election result a good result for the Wildrose Independence Party or is it a bad one since their leader ran in it?  

I have to imagine that the Brian Jean factor hurt the WIP. If I were a right-winger who wants to see Kenney out but wouldn't vote NDP, electing Brian Jean seems like a much better way to do that than voting for a fringe party.

Yeah. I think the WIP result here was pretty neutral to be honest. It confirms what polls have been showing in terms of them being the best-positioned hard-right alternative to the UCP by far, but at the same time it also indicates that they still have their work cut out for them if they want to be able to win seats. There's also the very relevant Brian Jean factor to consider in this race - I would have been very curious to see how the WIP (and NDP for that matter) would have performed in a rural by-election almost anywhere else in the province.

[adma]

Yeah. I think the WIP result here was pretty neutral to be honest. It confirms what polls have been showing in terms of them being the best-positioned hard-right alternative to the UCP by far, but at the same time it also indicates that they still have their work cut out for them if they want to be able to win seats. There's also the very relevant Brian Jean factor to consider in this race - I would have been very curious to see how the WIP (and NDP for that matter) would have performed in a rural by-election almost anywhere else in the province.

Plus, there's surely some kind of serial-parachute-candidate jadedness w/regard to Paul Hinman--if it were a high-profile *local* WIP candidate elsewhere in the province, things might be different...