Canadian by-elections 2021-2022
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections 2021-2022  (Read 16609 times)
adma
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« Reply #150 on: September 27, 2022, 07:22:02 PM »

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..
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mileslunn
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« Reply #151 on: September 28, 2022, 12:12:03 PM »

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..

I kind of think if NDP wins in next decade, it will come from split on right as when in power for a long time, splits on right seem more common.  Its easy to unite when a common enemy.  When the threat of them winning becomes a distant memory, much easier to split and no doubt in Saskatchewan you have divide with most urban Saskatchewan party members being more moderate fiscally conservative but socially moderate types while rural membership much more likely to be your right wing populist types.  You see it in UCP and while not yet in Saskatchewan Party, I imagine its only a matter of time before you do.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #152 on: September 29, 2022, 07:14:05 AM »

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..

Outside of these, the SNDP does have a few rural seats they can target, where they have a solid base (25%+) as of 2020 election.
- Meadow Lake (26%)
- Batoche (27)
- Saskatchewan Rivers (26%)
These are Northern seats, but "transition" seats if you will, with southern rural influences. ML and SR were held by the NDP before 2007.

- Indian Head-Milestone (28%)
- Last Mountain-Touchwood (25%)
Both in the southeast, the rural seats surrounding the north and east of Regina.

If the SNDP is looking to target to at least gain a caucus of 20+, these are their best bets in rural SK
As of the last June poll the NDP are up, but not much, 34% vs 31% at the election. They did poll as high as 39% in January, but the "other" vote (PC, Buffalo Party) was 10% then... the split on the right is starting to some degree while the Liberals are still a non-factor at 2%.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #153 on: October 11, 2022, 11:04:13 PM »

Brooks-Medicine Hat will be having a by-election on November 8th where Danielle Smith attempts to gain a seat in legislature.  In all likelihood should be easy UCP win but be interesting how it plays out as Smith while popular with base is quite controversial overall.  Interestingly enough Calgary-Elbow is not being called suggesting Smith doesn't like UCP chances there.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #154 on: October 11, 2022, 11:50:00 PM »

Does this mean that her campaign for the nomination in Livingstone-Macleod is off?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #155 on: October 12, 2022, 11:16:56 AM »

Does this mean that her campaign for the nomination in Livingstone-Macleod is off?

MLA there not interested in stepping down.  Livingstone-Macleod probably even safer as Medicine Hat did go NDP in 2015 although city was split in two so redistributed one would have gone Wildrose.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #156 on: October 15, 2022, 02:05:14 PM »

The CPC has a candidate for the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection. His name is Ron Chhinzer, an officer in the Peel Regional Police, no political experience but a "national gang prevention expert" according to the website. Not the worst bio to run on in a riding like Mississauga-Lakeshore, but we'll have to see who the Liberals put up.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #157 on: October 20, 2022, 11:39:20 PM »

Two posts on Dave Cournoyer's twitter. First, the non serious:

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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #158 on: October 20, 2022, 11:40:33 PM »

Then the serious, which fits in this thread:




Elected in a byelection, and resigns causing a byelection.
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adma
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« Reply #159 on: October 21, 2022, 05:39:25 AM »

Elected in a byelection, and resigns causing a byelection.

As was his predecessor, come to think of it.  (What other recent cases?  I can think of 2 2006 Liberal leadership contenders:  Bob Rae & Stephane Dion)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #160 on: October 21, 2022, 11:48:53 AM »

Calgary-Heritage should be easy Tory win, but be interested to see if any UCP MLAs with the mess party is in jump ship or if held after provincial election may have one that loses their seat.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #161 on: October 21, 2022, 02:00:34 PM »

Calgary-Heritage should be easy Tory win, but be interested to see if any UCP MLAs with the mess party is in jump ship or if held after provincial election may have one that loses their seat.

Calgary-Heritage is one riding of the I think three in Calgary where the NDP came second to the CPC, now the LPC and the NDP were basically bringing in the same vote in 2021, 17% vs 16% while the CPC still took almost 60% of the vote.

It looks like two provincial districts make up most/all of Calgary-Heritage; Calgary-Glenmore held by Whitney Issik and Calgary-Lougheed which is held by... Jason Kenney! (could he try and go back to Ottawa?). Calgary-Glenmore might be the only one of the two that the ANDP has a shot at, held during 2015 government and they seem to have a strong candidate in place from the energy sector... so Issik may be at risk.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #162 on: October 25, 2022, 11:49:21 AM »

Looking at upcoming ones I have

Brooks-Medicine Hat: Probably goes for Danielle Smith as a fairly reliably Conservative one but with Alberta party leader being former mayor of Brooks and NDP having some support in Medicine Hat, its possible Smith gets under 50% and if that happens huge redflag for her.  I could only see her losing if one of two dropped out and even then simply makes more competitive.

Calgary-Heritage: Very safe Tory riding so easy Conservative win.  Be interesting if one of the UCP MLAs in Calgary unhappy with direction jumps into the federal fray.

Mississauga South: That will be first test if Poilievre is making inroads in suburbs or not.  On one hand by-elections tend to have low turnout and those in opposition more motivated to show up thus Tory edge.  But also this is type that might prefer more your Charest style of conservatism and may find Poilievre a bridge too far.

Hamilton Centre (provincial): Easy NDP win.  Yes Howarth popular here, but this is by nature an NDP stronghold.  Very strong blue collar population, but also urban central enough it is not seeing loss to right you are in some other blue collar ridings.
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Krago
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« Reply #163 on: October 25, 2022, 11:14:59 PM »

There are some municipal by-elections in Ontario.

https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/elections/by-election/

New elections will be held on Monday, January 23, 2023 for French school board trustees where the nominated candidates were ineligible.

https://www.cambridge.ca/Modules/News/index.aspx?page=1&newsId=fdad4279-400c-407a-8f88-beb6958b2363

The ballots for separate school supporters in Cambridge did not include the names of two candidates.  The election will 'resume' in November 2022.

The area represented by the trustees also includes the Township of North Dumfries.  "The results from the election for English-Separate, School Board for the Township of North Dumfries will be sealed, forwarded and retained by the City Clerk for the City of Cambridge. Following the resumption of the election in Cambridge the results for the English-Separate School Board will be compiled for Cambridge and North Dumfries to be shared publicly."

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #164 on: October 26, 2022, 09:18:27 AM »

There are some municipal by-elections in Ontario.

https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/elections/by-election/

New elections will be held on Monday, January 23, 2023 for French school board trustees where the nominated candidates were ineligible.

https://www.cambridge.ca/Modules/News/index.aspx?page=1&newsId=fdad4279-400c-407a-8f88-beb6958b2363

The ballots for separate school supporters in Cambridge did not include the names of two candidates.  The election will 'resume' in November 2022.

The area represented by the trustees also includes the Township of North Dumfries.  "The results from the election for English-Separate, School Board for the Township of North Dumfries will be sealed, forwarded and retained by the City Clerk for the City of Cambridge. Following the resumption of the election in Cambridge the results for the English-Separate School Board will be compiled for Cambridge and North Dumfries to be shared publicly."



I'm sure turnout will be sky high for these events. What are the odds that the number of voters from North Dumfries is greater than that of Cambridge? What a sham. Meanwhile, no by-election in Scarborough North...
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #165 on: October 26, 2022, 10:24:53 AM »

Looking at upcoming ones I have

Brooks-Medicine Hat: Probably goes for Danielle Smith as a fairly reliably Conservative one but with Alberta party leader being former mayor of Brooks and NDP having some support in Medicine Hat, its possible Smith gets under 50% and if that happens huge redflag for her.  I could only see her losing if one of two dropped out and even then simply makes more competitive.

Calgary-Heritage: Very safe Tory riding so easy Conservative win.  Be interesting if one of the UCP MLAs in Calgary unhappy with direction jumps into the federal fray.

Mississauga South: That will be first test if Poilievre is making inroads in suburbs or not.  On one hand by-elections tend to have low turnout and those in opposition more motivated to show up thus Tory edge.  But also this is type that might prefer more your Charest style of conservatism and may find Poilievre a bridge too far.

Hamilton Centre (provincial): Easy NDP win.  Yes Howarth popular here, but this is by nature an NDP stronghold.  Very strong blue collar population, but also urban central enough it is not seeing loss to right you are in some other blue collar ridings.


There is also currently one, and likely soon two vacancies in the New Brunswick legislature.

Holt confirmed that Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore MLA Denis Landry is one of the two members who will be leaving.

Landry, the longest-serving Liberal in the legislature, said last month he would run to become mayor of the new municipality of Hautes-Terres in the Acadian Peninsula next month.

Holt wouldn't name the second Liberal MLA, saying she'll let the member make the announcement next week.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/liberal-mlas-step-down-susan-holt-1.6609797
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adma
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« Reply #166 on: October 26, 2022, 05:04:43 PM »

Meanwhile, no by-election in Scarborough North...

One bit of food for thought there, though:  if we're to subtract the councillor total from the mayoral total to guesstimate how many "dead" Lai ballots there were, the differential still falls short of the Jamaal Myers vote.  So Myers still has a *bit* of gird of "legitimacy"...
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toaster
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« Reply #167 on: October 26, 2022, 07:34:29 PM »

There were signs at the polling stations saying that voters should not cast a vote for Cynthia Lai, and if they did their votes wouldn't be counted.  So that simple math doesn't quite tell the whole picture.
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adma
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« Reply #168 on: October 26, 2022, 07:49:41 PM »

There were signs at the polling stations saying that voters should not cast a vote for Cynthia Lai, and if they did their votes wouldn't be counted.  So that simple math doesn't quite tell the whole picture.

True, I'm not claiming that it does.  But I still think that a fair number of wouldbe status-quo e-day Lai voters voted for Jamaal as the most viable option remaining, even if his politics went the other way.

And the ward lucked out by having that kind of viable alternative, which even the Star endorsed prior to Lai's passing.  So even if that simple math is deceptive, the fact that he got more votes than the mostly-advance apparent Lai null at least dampers the asterisk about him somewhat.  (If it were Josh Matlow who died, *then* there'd be a nothing-but-mice-remaining problem.  And that similar nothing-but-mice factor kept the sex-scandal-tarred Michael Thompson in there--had someone of Jamaal Myers' calibre run against *him*, he/she might have won.  Though it helps that Scarborough Centre is more naturally "Jamaal-compatible" than Scarborough North)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #169 on: October 27, 2022, 09:56:10 AM »

Progressives have won Scarborough North before. Remember Rathika Sitsabaiesan?
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DL
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« Reply #170 on: October 27, 2022, 12:23:07 PM »

Progressives have won Scarborough North before. Remember Rathika Sitsabaiesan?

The boundaries were different when she won in 2011. It was Scarborough Rouge River and if we t further east. It was less Chinese and more Tamil than the current Scarborough North
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adma
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« Reply #171 on: October 27, 2022, 05:54:50 PM »

Progressives have won Scarborough North before. Remember Rathika Sitsabaiesan?

The boundaries were different when she won in 2011. It was Scarborough Rouge River and if we t further east. It was less Chinese and more Tamil than the current Scarborough North

And it's that "further east" part that made the difference for Rathika (and similarly, forms Jamaal's likely base--a councillor reflecting the Malvern end rather than the Milliken end, for a change)
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #172 on: October 28, 2022, 12:36:22 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2022, 12:41:56 AM by Benjamin Frank »

No opinions on the by-elections upcoming in New Brunswick?

Also, I don't think this has been mentioned, the NDP and the Greens have nominated candidates (a while back) for the Mississauga-Lakeshore by-election.

https://www.thestar.com/local-mississauga/news/federal-election/2022/08/20/ndp-and-green-party-announce-candidates-for-upcoming-mississauga-federal-byelection.html?itm_source=parsely-api

"Julia Kole has been named the NDP candidate and Mary Kidnew has been nominated as the Green Party of Canada in the upcoming Mississauga—Lakeshore federal byelection.

Kole ran for the Ontario NDP the recent provincial election and says her party’s message was starting to root in Mississauga—Lakeshore."

Kidnew, who started the Mississauga—Lakeshore Green Party electoral district association and is a past president of the Hillcrest Ratepayers Association, says she wants take her community service in the next level.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #173 on: October 31, 2022, 05:35:32 PM »

https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/federal-byelection-in-critical-ontario-riding-will-be-a-tight-race-poll-predicts

For those of us experiencing election withdrawal, the Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection offers a ray of hope. 3-point Liberal lead in the Mississauga-Lakeshore according to Mainstreet, no surprise here considering how this riding is always so close. I still remain bullish on the Tories' chances here, because a byelection in an inelastic riding is all about turnout, and while the CPC nominated a candidate a while ago who's been actively campaigning, the Liberals are yet to nominate. But no party can take this riding for granted, the people of south Mississauga like their races close!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #174 on: October 31, 2022, 06:14:38 PM »

I think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for Mississauga-Lakeshore but key indicators in some ways.

Trudeau:  This is more a Blue Liberal type riding so probably a lot wish Trudeau was more fiscally conservative so reluctantly vote Liberal.  If wins shows still in game but if loses depends on turnout and size of loss.

Poilievre: High number of university educated and upper middle class types so may like balanced budgets and lower taxes, but could care less about right wing populism so more a riding Charest would do well in.  If Poilievre wishes to win, he pretty much needs to win this.  If loses this in general election, at best wins a weak minority.

Still as mentioned I think Tories have slight edge simply as their supporters more motivated to show up, but wouldn't be surprised if Liberals hold riding.
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