Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[adma]

A yawner, but BCLib leader Kevin Falcon won the Quilchena byelection (58.61%--NDP 24.48, Green 9.69 , Conservative 6.60, Libertarian .62)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-quilchena-byelection-1.6436958

[trebor204]

By-Election called for Thompson (Manitoba) for June 7th.
Riding was vacant following the death of NDP MLA Danielle Adams

NDP will field Eric Redhead, and Charlotte Larocque will be running for the PCs.
The Liberals won't run a candidate.

In another Manitoba news the Manitoba Green Party leader, James Beddome is stepping this fall.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1527096350449467392

[Oryxslayer]

Is this the right place to say that Kenney has resigned after barely winning an internal UCP vote?

[Njall]

Is this the right place to say that Kenney has resigned after barely winning an internal UCP vote?

He hasn't resigned his seat, and the caucus has decided that he will stay as leader and Premier until the leadership race is over. Given that we're literally a year (and 9 days) from the next election, I'd be surprised to see a Calgary-Lougheed by-election.

[adma]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1527096350449467392

The most Con-vulnerable Mississauga seat, FWIW (a 6-point gap in '21)

[Hatman 🍁]

Mississauga-Lakeshore is also one of the most inelastic ridings in the GTA (probably due to its wealth/Whiteness), so while it seems vulnerable on paper, it might not be. It was both the Liberals' best seat in Mississauga in the 2018 provincial election and their worst seat in the 2021 federal election.

[trebor204]

By-Election in Thompson today.
Results are slowly coming in.
With only 24 out 53 of polls reporting (almost 3 hours after the polls close).
NDP Eric Redhead is leading PC Charlotte LaRocque 878-431. (
There are only 2 candidates in this race. The Liberals didn't field a candidate

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Eric Redhead, NDP: 71.9% (+17.3)
Charlotte Larocque, PC: 28.1% (-7.6)
NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +12.4)
Turnout: 19.7% (-17.6)

[Independents for George Santos]

In case a single human being cares, it looks like the PCs have won the two provincial by-elections in Irvingland New Brunswick, both near Miramichi, one being an ostensible gain from the Liberals. The People's Alliance joining up into Higgs' big tent doesn't seem to have affected PC performance in Francophone ridings which was my big question mark going in.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Mississauga-Lakeshore is also one of the most inelastic ridings in the GTA (probably due to its wealth/Whiteness), so while it seems vulnerable on paper, it might not be. It was both the Liberals' best seat in Mississauga in the 2018 provincial election and their worst seat in the 2021 federal election.

True, though by-elections complicate things for the governing party. The Liberals aren't doing so hot right now, and it takes a lot to motivate people to vote in by-elections, especially for a governing party. A byelection in a relatively inelastic riding like this one is a game of base turnout, and that doesn't work in favour of the Liberals in the current climate.

What makes this more interesting is that, when the byelection is held, the Tories will most likely have a new leader. Trudeau could call it before, but calling this byelection in the summer would be shooting himself in the foot. In all likelihood this byelection will be in the fall, which will give the next CPC leader an opportunity to campaign along with the candidate and try out campaign material. See what sticks, what doesn't, etc. I say the "next CPC leader" with the full expectation that it will be Poilievre - and while byelections aren't always a great bellwether of what will happen in a general, it will be an opportunity for Poilievre to try out his pitch in what is very much a "Laurentian establishment"-type riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mississauga-Lakeshore is also one of the most inelastic ridings in the GTA (probably due to its wealth/Whiteness), so while it seems vulnerable on paper, it might not be. It was both the Liberals' best seat in Mississauga in the 2018 provincial election and their worst seat in the 2021 federal election.

True, though by-elections complicate things for the governing party. The Liberals aren't doing so hot right now, and it takes a lot to motivate people to vote in by-elections, especially for a governing party. A byelection in a relatively inelastic riding like this one is a game of base turnout, and that doesn't work in favour of the Liberals in the current climate.

What makes this more interesting is that, when the byelection is held, the Tories will most likely have a new leader. Trudeau could call it before, but calling this byelection in the summer would be shooting himself in the foot. In all likelihood this byelection will be in the fall, which will give the next CPC leader an opportunity to campaign along with the candidate and try out campaign material. See what sticks, what doesn't, etc. I say the "next CPC leader" with the full expectation that it will be Poilievre - and while byelections aren't always a great bellwether of what will happen in a general, it will be an opportunity for Poilievre to try out his pitch in what is very much a "Laurentian establishment"-type riding.

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

For those keeping tack, here are the results of the NB by-elections:

Miramichi Bay-Neguac:
PC: 45.0% (+11.3)
Lib: 34.5% (-9.1)
Grn: 15.2% (+5.1)
PANB: 3.4% (-7.6)
Ind: 1.9%
PC GAIN from Lib (Avg Swing: 10.2%)
Turnout: 42.2% (-25.4)

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin:
PC: 52.3% (+4.3)
Lib: 35.7% (+14.0)
PANB: 7.5% (-20.5)
Grn: 4.6%
PC HOLD (Avg swing: -4.9%)
Turnout: 43.8% (-28.1)

The People's Alliance are essentially dead now, the NDP didn't run any candidates due to internal disarray. The Greens did fairly well in Neguac, preventing the Liberals from holding the seat. Pretty bad result for the Liberals to lose a seat, even though they did will in Bay du Vin. But, with Higgs being so unpopular, it's a disastrous result.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

[adma]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

And I presume "third best" means in Mississauga--but we're only talking about 6 seats, and 5 of them were within a 2-point range (from 35.5% to 37.5%)  So OLP performance in Lakeshore wasn't really exceptional relative to the bigger picture this time--almost *all* Mississauga ridings registered '18 Sousa-like shares (ironically, the one which *didn't* is the one which *once* would have been presumed Lib-friendliest: Mississauga-Malton, thanks to Malton).

[mileslunn]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

I also think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for riding.  Its more your Blue Liberal/Red Tory type.  Like balanced budgets, wary of big spending, prefer lower taxes although not too low, but totally turned off by populism and culture wars.  Riding is very similar to your Tory Remain types in UK and your Romney-Biden counties.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

For the record, it was the Liberals' third best seat in the provincial election. True to form, the results were barely any different from 2018. There was only a half a point average swing from the Liberals to the Tories, even with Sousa off the ballot.

Despite that, I think the inelasticity of the riding works in the Tories' favour in the context of a by-election.

I also think both Trudeau and Poilievre bad fits for riding.  Its more your Blue Liberal/Red Tory type.  Like balanced budgets, wary of big spending, prefer lower taxes although not too low, but totally turned off by populism and culture wars.  Riding is very similar to your Tory Remain types in UK and your Romney-Biden counties.

On balance yes, but byelections are really more about who can turn out more people. Think of the November 2013 Brandon--Souris byelection - under normal circumstances that's an easy Tory win, but in late 2013 Liberals had a new leader honeymoon and were highly motivated to stick it to Harper while Conservatives were losing momentum, so the Libs came very close. Poilievre may not be a good fit for Mississauga--Lakeshore, but he's hardly a worse fit than Justin Trudeau was for a rural prairie riding like Brandon--Souris.

Point being, the CPC won't really have to worry about switching those Liberal voters over. Majority of eligible voters don't vote in by-elections, really only the most highly-motivated come out to vote, and that gives the CPC an advantage in the current context.

Edit: For what it's worth, Bryan Breuget's CPC leadership model predicts that Poilievre will get about 58% in this riding in the leadership race, to Charest's 18%. I know Bryan makes no secret about his bias towards Poilievre and against Charest, but his methodology looks pretty sound. So if that's anything to go by, at least the Conservative base in the riding looks pretty solid for a Poilievre-led CPC.

[Benjamin Frank]

Surrey South Provincial by-election, September 10, 2022

There was some speculation, I'm not sure how serious it was, that the NDP called the by-election on the same day as the Conservative leadership race to try to sneak their way to a victory. I'm not sure if this was meant all that seriously because it's not like anybody could actually cast a ballot in the Conservative leadership race on the day.  

Anyway, irrespective, it didn't work, and the B.C Liberals handily kept the riding which they only narrowly won in the 2020 general election. And, this is despite a strong performance by the B.C Conservative Party. For those who aren't aware, for whatever reason, the B.C Green Party has never had much of a presense in Surrey.

Prior to 2020, Surrey South had not been kind to the NDP, so this is something of a reversion to the mean.

Elenore Sturko BC Liberal Party 5,568  51.83%
Pauline Greaves BC NDP        3,221  29.99%
Harman Bhangu Conservative 1,364  12.70%
Simran Sarai BC Green Party   368  3.43%
Jason Bax Libertarian              221  2.06%
100% of total ballot boxes reported 10,742

[Hatman 🍁]

Swings:

Lib: +4.5
NDP: -13.1
Grn: -6.2

Liberal HOLD. Avg. swing: +8.8%

[Benjamin Frank]

Swings:

Lib: +4.5
NDP: -13.1
Grn: -6.2

Liberal HOLD. Avg. swing: +8.8%

I didn't remember the Green Party did that well in 2020. Nevertheless, the more affluent south Surrey (as opposed to just Surrey South) is more receptive to the Green Party than either central Surrey or east Surrey is.

This can also be seen as more evidence that the Green Party is nothing more than a protest vote for a lot of people as it can be speculated that a lot of Green Party 2020 voters shifted to the B.C Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

Surrey South has normally been a very safe BC Liberal riding and was only close in 2020 which was probably a high water mark for NDP and low point for BC Liberals.  So some reversion to mean no surprise.  BC Conservatives getting 12% is mixed blessing for both parties.  For NDP, that is strong enough could split the vote enough they could come up middle.  Usually they are weaker in Lower Mainland than Fraser Valley or Interior.  On other hand fact BC Liberals still won handily anyways may play to idea vote splitting is overrated and its not as simple as right vs. left as some think.

[adma]

Saskatoon Meewasin--Nathaniel Teed holds Ryan Meili's seat for the NDP (and becomes Saskatchewan's first out MLA in the process)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-byelection-politics-1.6596753

[Hatman 🍁]

Results (prelim, excluding mail-ins):

NDP: 56.8% (+5.5)
SP: 37.0% (-9.1)
Lib: 2.6%
Buf: 2.4%
Grn: 1.2% (-1.4)

Turnout: 37.5% (-18.8)

NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +7.3%)
 

[DL]

Results (prelim, excluding mail-ins):

NDP: 56.8% (+5.5)
SP: 37.0% (-9.1)
Lib: 2.6%
Buf: 2.4%
Grn: 1.2% (-1.4)

Turnout: 37.5% (-18.8)

NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +7.3%)
 

Its worth noting that in 2020 over 1400 votes were cast by mail in Meewasin and they broke for the NDP over the Sask Party by about 900 to 500...so look for the NDP margin here to further expand

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Results (prelim, excluding mail-ins):

NDP: 56.8% (+5.5)
SP: 37.0% (-9.1)
Lib: 2.6%
Buf: 2.4%
Grn: 1.2% (-1.4)

Turnout: 37.5% (-18.8)

NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +7.3%)
 

Applying that 2-party swing to the 2020 riding-by-riding results, you flip 6 seats from SKP to NDP - one in Prince Albert, two in Saskatoon, three in Regina. Still a huge Sask Party majority, 42-19 - but amazingly, that would still be the NDP's biggest seat haul since 2007

[mileslunn]

Results (prelim, excluding mail-ins):

NDP: 56.8% (+5.5)
SP: 37.0% (-9.1)
Lib: 2.6%
Buf: 2.4%
Grn: 1.2% (-1.4)

Turnout: 37.5% (-18.8)

NDP HOLD (2 party avg swing: +7.3%)
 

Applying that 2-party swing to the 2020 riding-by-riding results, you flip 6 seats from SKP to NDP - one in Prince Albert, two in Saskatoon, three in Regina. Still a huge Sask Party majority, 42-19 - but amazingly, that would still be the NDP's biggest seat haul since 2007

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.